March 11, 2026
S&P futures are down 0.2% Wednesday morning, near premarket lows, after U.S. equities finished mostly lower in a volatile Tuesday session. Strength in mega-cap tech and memory/semiconductors helped cushion the decline, while energy, software, and transports lagged.
Global markets are mixed. Asian equities were mostly higher, while European markets are broadly lower. Treasury yields are modestly higher with a slight curve steepening (+1–2 bp). The dollar index is up 0.2%, while gold (−0.9%) and silver (−3.1%) are weaker. Bitcoin futures are down 0.6%. WTI crude is rebounding 6.4% after Tuesday’s nearly 12% drop, reflecting continued volatility in energy markets.
The Iran conflict and oil prices remain the dominant macro drivers. Markets are balancing President Trump’s suggestion the war could end soon against continued escalation in the region. Reports that Iran may be mining the Strait of Hormuz heightened concerns about supply disruptions, though U.S. Central Command said it destroyed several Iranian vessels suspected of laying mines. Oil markets are also reacting to discussions among IEA and G7 countries about a coordinated release of strategic reserves, potentially larger than the 182M-barrel release following Russia’s 2022 invasion of Ukraine.
Despite elevated geopolitical risks, equities have shown notable resilience, supported by a solid economic backdrop, strong AI investment cycle, and expectations for robust earnings growth.
The key macro event today is the February CPI report at 8:30 AM ET. Consensus expects headline and core inflation to rise 0.3% month-over-month, though investors note the data may already be outdated given the recent surge in energy prices tied to the Iran conflict. Later this week brings housing starts and jobless claims Thursday, followed by durable goods orders, January PCE inflation, the second estimate of Q4 GDP, and University of Michigan sentiment Friday. The Treasury will also auction $39B of 10-year notes today, following Tuesday’s weak 3-year sale and ahead of Thursday’s $22B 30-year auction.
Corporate Highlights
Technology
- ORCL (Oracle): Shares higher after earnings beat expectations and management raised FY27 revenue outlook, citing strong demand for AI and advanced compute infrastructure.
Aerospace & Defense
- AVAV (AeroVironment): Results disappointed with lowered FY guidance.
Industrials
- CDRE (Cadre Holdings): Earnings missed but FY26 revenue guidance came in above consensus.
Consumer
- KMX (CarMax): Shares boosted by reports activist Starboard Value has taken a stake.
Upcoming Earnings
- CPB (Campbell’s) reporting today.
- DG (Dollar General) premarket Thursday.
- ADBE (Adobe), LEN (Lennar), and ULTA (Ulta Beauty) reporting after Thursday’s close.
U.S. equities finished mostly lower Tuesday after surrendering earlier gains as geopolitical headlines again dominated trading. The Dow slipped 0.07%, the S&P 500 fell 0.21%, the Nasdaq was roughly flat (+0.01%), and the Russell 2000 declined 0.22%. Markets traded higher early in the session, extending Monday’s relief rally after President Trump suggested the Iran conflict was largely complete, but sentiment deteriorated later in the day following reports that Iran had begun deploying naval mines in the Strait of Hormuz.
Those developments raised fresh doubts about the timing of any de-escalation. Iranian officials reiterated that the United States would not determine when the conflict ends and warned that no oil would be exported if U.S. or Israeli strikes continue. At the same time, U.S. officials maintained a hawkish tone, with Defense Secretary Hegseth warning that the next phase of operations could represent the most intense day of strikes so far.
Energy markets remained highly volatile. WTI crude briefly plunged nearly 12% on the session, reflecting shifting expectations around supply disruptions and potential policy responses, though it recovered somewhat into the close. Even with Tuesday’s decline, analysts expect elevated oil volatility to persist for months, given the uncertainty surrounding shipping through the Strait of Hormuz and the pace at which regional production could normalize.
In rates and currencies, Treasury yields rose sharply across the long end of the curve, with the 10-year yield climbing to 4.15% and the 30-year to 4.79%, reflecting continued inflation risk tied to energy markets. The dollar index fell 0.3%, while safe-haven demand lifted gold (+2.7%) and silver (+6%). Bitcoin futures gained 1.6%.
Economic data were limited. The NFIB small business optimism index slipped to 98.8 from 99.3, though the report noted sentiment remains elevated despite competitive pressure from larger firms. Existing home sales surprised to the upside, suggesting housing demand remains resilient despite higher mortgage rates.
Attention now shifts to Wednesday’s February CPI report, where consensus expects headline and core inflation to rise 0.3% month-over-month. Additional data this week include housing starts and jobless claims Thursday, followed by durable goods orders, January PCE inflation, the second estimate of Q4 GDP, and University of Michigan consumer sentiment Friday.
The Treasury market also remains in focus following a weak $58B 3-year note auction, which tailed by 1.1 basis points, though foreign demand improved relative to the previous sale. Upcoming auctions include $39B in 10-year notes Wednesday and $22B in 30-year bonds Thursday.
Markets struggled to sustain Monday’s relief rally as renewed escalation risks in the Strait of Hormuz highlighted the fragility of the geopolitical backdrop. While technology and AI-related stocks continued to attract investor interest, broader market sentiment remains highly sensitive to developments in energy markets and the potential inflationary impact of sustained oil price volatility.
The next key catalyst will be Wednesday’s CPI report, which will help determine whether the recent energy shock begins to feed into broader inflation expectations and monetary policy outlooks.
Sector Highlights
Sector performance reflected the market’s mixed risk tone and volatile energy backdrop.
- Outperformers: Communication Services (+0.26%) and Technology (+0.08%) posted modest gains, supported by strength in semiconductors, AI infrastructure, and networking equipment. Materials and Real Estate also edged higher.
- Underperformers: Energy (−1.32%) was the worst-performing sector as crude oil reversed sharply from earlier highs. Healthcare (−0.73%), Utilities (−0.65%), Industrials (−0.57%), and Financials (−0.55%) also lagged.
Within sectors, memory, semiconductors, and AI-related technology stocks led gains, while airlines, cruise lines, defense contractors, medical device companies, and homebuilders were among the weakest groups.
Information Technology
- HPE (Hewlett Packard Enterprise) reported earnings ahead of expectations and issued upbeat guidance, highlighting continued AI-driven infrastructure demand.
- TSM (Taiwan Semiconductor) reported February revenue up 22% year-over-year, though sequentially lower from January levels.
- NVDA (NVIDIA) announced plans to launch NemoClaw, an open-source platform designed to help enterprise software companies deploy AI agents.
- QCOM (Qualcomm) fell after Bank of America reinstated coverage with an underperform rating, citing risks from rising memory prices and potential revenue losses tied to Apple.
Consumer Discretionary
- CASY (Casey’s General Stores) gained 3.8% after beating earnings expectations and raising guidance for same-store sales and margins.
- KSS (Kohl’s) reported weak net sales and comparable store performance with guidance below expectations, though management attributed weakness to winter storms.
- RIVN (Rivian) rose 4.2% after TD Cowen upgraded the stock, citing strong demand expectations for the upcoming R2 platform.
Consumer Staples
- UNFI (United Natural Foods) raised guidance and highlighted a strengthening pipeline of new business wins.
Healthcare
- VRTX (Vertex Pharmaceuticals) gained 8.3% after Jefferies initiated coverage with a buy rating, citing the durability of the company’s cystic fibrosis franchise.
- WST (West Pharmaceutical Services) fell after announcing the upcoming retirement of CEO Eric Green.
Financials
- UWMC (UWM Holdings) rose 3.9% after raising Q1 revenue guidance significantly above consensus expectations.
Industrials
- BA (Boeing) fell after reports that wiring issues could slow deliveries of the 737 MAX aircraft.
Consumer / Fintech
- PRG (PROG Holdings) declined after lowering its full-year revenue guidance following the acquisition of Purchasing Power.
Consumer Health / Digital Healthcare
- HIMS (Hims & Hers Health) continued to advance after multiple analyst upgrades tied to its newly announced partnership with Novo Nordisk to distribute GLP-1 weight-loss medications.
Eco Data Releases | Wednesday March 11th, 2026
S&P 500 Constituent Earnings Announcements | Wednesday March 11th, 2026
Data sourced from FactSet Research Systems Inc.
