March 13, 2026
S&P futures are up 0.1% Friday morning, off earlier lows, following Thursday’s selloff that saw weakness in big tech, semis, and AI-linked names. Major indices remain on track for weekly declines. European markets are lower after a weaker Asian session. Treasuries are mixed with long-end yields up 1–2 bp, while the dollar index is up 0.4% and at YTD highs, on pace for a second weekly gain. Gold (-0.6%) and silver (-2.2%) are lower, bitcoin futures are up 2.3%, and WTI crude is down 0.5% but still higher on the week.
The Iran conflict is entering its second week with little clarity on a resolution. Trump overnight emphasized U.S. military strength and suggested developments could occur today, while Axios reported he told G7 leaders Iran may be close to surrendering. However, rhetoric from Iran’s new leadership remains defiant and reports continue to highlight potential minelaying in the Strait of Hormuz, with tanker escorts possibly weeks away. Oil near $100/bbl is keeping inflation concerns elevated, with markets now pricing less than 25 bp of Fed rate cuts this year. Outside geopolitics, the Treasury Department launched Section 301 investigations into forced-labor practices across 60 countries.
It is a busy economic calendar today, including durable goods orders, January PCE inflation, the second estimate of Q4 GDP, January JOLTS job openings, and preliminary March University of Michigan sentiment and inflation expectations. Next week’s calendar includes Empire and Philly Fed manufacturing surveys, PPI, and housing data, though the key event will be the March FOMC meeting Wednesday, where the Fed is widely expected to hold rates steady. Powell will likely face questions around inflation risks tied to energy prices. Trade discussions also remain in focus, with Treasury Secretary Bessent and USTR Greer meeting counterparts in Paris ahead of the anticipated Trump-Xi meeting in Beijing later this month.
Company news:
- Adobe (ADBE) reported an earnings and revenue beat, though shares were pressured by softer-than-expected ARR trends; long-time CEO Shantanu Narayen also announced plans to retire.
- Ulta Beauty (ULTA) posted stronger comparable sales but missed EPS expectations due to higher expenses and an unfavorable sales mix; management noted consumers remain value focused.
- Lennar (LEN) delivered results within its guidance range, though next-quarter order guidance came in below Street expectations.
- Meta Platforms (META) reportedly delayed its Avocado AI model until at least May after internal tests showed weaker-than-expected performance.
- Apple (AAPL) is reportedly cutting App Store fees in China as part of efforts to ease regulatory pressure in the region.
- S&P Global is said to be considering rule changes that could accelerate SpaceX inclusion into its equity indices.
U.S. equities finished sharply lower Thursday with the Dow down 1.56%, S&P 500 down 1.52%, Nasdaq down 1.78%, and Russell 2000 down 2.12%, as stocks ended near session lows. The S&P 500 and Nasdaq are now pacing for weekly declines, pressured by higher oil prices, rising Treasury yields, and continued geopolitical uncertainty.
The Iran conflict remained the dominant macro driver, with energy supply disruptions intensifying concerns about inflation and policy tightening. Iran’s new leader Mojtaba Khamenei reiterated support for keeping the Strait of Hormuz closed, while the Trump administration signaled that military objectives would take priority over stabilizing oil markets. Tanker traffic remains largely halted and U.S. officials indicated military escorts for oil shipments may still be weeks away. Despite attempts to calm markets—including a Jones Act waiver and coordinated strategic reserve releases—oil prices surged. WTI crude jumped 9.7% to above $95/bbl while Brent closed above $100, the first time since August 2022.
The spike in energy prices contributed to a sharp backup in Treasury yields, particularly at the front end. The 2-year yield rose 10 bp, reflecting expectations that higher energy prices could delay monetary easing. Fed funds futures now price just ~17 bp of cuts through year-end, down sharply from ~53 bp at the beginning of the month. The yield curve flattened, though demand improved for long-duration bonds as the $22B 30-year Treasury auction stopped through by 0.7 bp, contrasting with weaker demand earlier in the week for 3-year and 10-year notes.
Private credit concerns also weighed on sentiment. Morgan Stanley restricted withdrawals from its North Haven Private Income Fund, following earlier redemption limits by Cliffwater and JPMorgan’s decision to reduce lending exposure to certain private credit vehicles.
Economic data released Thursday was mixed but broadly resilient. Initial jobless claims came in at 213K, slightly below expectations, while continuing claims edged down week-over-week to 1.85M. January housing starts rose 7.2% m/m to a 1.487M annualized pace, well above expectations, though building permits fell 5.4%, signaling some cooling in future construction activity. The January trade deficit narrowed sharply to $54.5B from $70.3B, reflecting stronger export flows and weaker imports.
Markets now look ahead to Friday’s heavier macro calendar including durable goods orders, January PCE inflation, the second estimate of Q4 GDP, JOLTS job openings, and preliminary March University of Michigan sentiment and inflation expectations.
Sector Highlights
Sector performance reflected the macro crosscurrents of higher energy prices and rising yields. Energy was the clear outperformer, rising +0.98% alongside the surge in crude prices. Utilities (+0.73%) and Consumer Staples (+0.09%) also held up relatively well as defensive positioning gained traction. Materials (-0.36%) and Real Estate (-0.64%) declined modestly but outperformed the broader market.
Cyclical and growth-oriented sectors were under the most pressure. Industrials (-2.52%) led the downside, weighed down by transports, airlines, and machinery. Consumer Discretionary (-2.21%) also lagged amid weakness in apparel and travel-related stocks. Healthcare (-1.76%), Technology (-1.72%), Communication Services (-1.63%), and Financials (-1.62%) all declined sharply as rising yields pressured growth valuations and private credit concerns weighed on financials.
Sector Performance:
Sector performance skewed defensive amid rising yields and geopolitical uncertainty. Energy (+0.98%) led the market, supported by the sharp rally in crude prices tied to ongoing disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz. Utilities (+0.73%) and Consumer Staples (+0.09%) also held up relatively well as investors rotated toward defensive areas such as grocers and discounters. Materials (-0.36%) and Real Estate (-0.64%) declined but still outperformed the broader market. Cyclical and growth-oriented sectors were the biggest laggards. Industrials (-2.52%) led the downside, pressured by weakness in airlines, trucking, and machinery. Consumer Discretionary (-2.21%) also struggled amid declines in apparel and travel names. Healthcare (-1.76%), Technology (-1.72%), Communication Services (-1.63%), and Financials (-1.62%) all moved lower, with the latter weighed down by renewed concerns surrounding private credit exposure and redemption restrictions
Energy
Energy stocks rallied alongside crude prices.
- Occidental Petroleum (OXY) rose after being upgraded to overweight at Wells Fargo, with analysts highlighting strong leverage to higher oil prices and improving Permian capital efficiency.
- Fertilizer producers also advanced as Middle East supply disruptions tightened global markets. CF Industries (CF) and Nutrien (NTR) both gained following bullish analyst commentary.
Materials
Chemical companies outperformed amid expectations that U.S. producers could benefit from global energy supply disruptions.
- Dow Inc. (DOW) rose after being upgraded to buy at Citi.
Consumer Discretionary
Retail and apparel names were pressured by earnings and cautious guidance.
- Dollar General (DG) fell despite a beat on earnings and comparable sales as its long-term outlook disappointed investors.
- G-III Apparel Group (GIII) dropped sharply after missing earnings and guiding FY EPS below expectations.
- Ollie’s Bargain Outlet (OLLI) reported stronger comparable sales but offered guidance largely in line with expectations.
- Petco Health and Wellness (WOOF) surged after guidance topped expectations and analysts upgraded the stock.
Communication Services
- Bumble Inc. (BMBL) rallied sharply following an earnings beat and stronger-than-expected user growth trends.
Information Technology
Software stocks were mixed amid ongoing debate about AI growth sustainability.
- UiPath (PATH) declined despite an earnings beat as investors questioned the durability of its AI-related growth trajectory.
- Netskope (NTSK) dropped sharply after disappointing guidance and slower ARR growth.
- Descartes Systems Group (DSGX) rose following strong earnings and positive margin trends.
Financials
Private credit concerns weighed on the sector.
- Morgan Stanley (MS) fell after restricting withdrawals from a private credit fund due to heavy redemption requests.
- Deutsche Bank (DB) also declined after disclosing roughly $30B of exposure to private credit, though management said the bank’s risk remains manageable.
Industrials
- Firefly Aerospace (FLY) rallied after successfully launching its Alpha Flight 7 mission.
Eco Data Releases | Friday March 13th, 2026
S&P 500 Constituent Earnings Announcements | Friday March 13th, 2026
Data sourced from FactSet Research Systems Inc.
