March 31, 2026
S&P futures up 0.8% Tuesday morning after a mostly weaker Monday session, with momentum and small caps under pressure. Memory names led declines, while semis, airlines, machinery, and logistics also lagged, though breadth was better with 8 of 11 sectors higher. Asian markets mostly lower (South Korea -4%+), Europe +0.4%. Treasuries firmer (yields -1–2 bp), dollar slightly weaker, gold +0.8%, silver +3.8%, Bitcoin -0.1%, and WTI crude -0.8%.
The bounce is being driven by potential de-escalation signals, with reports Trump may end the Iran campaign even if the Strait of Hormuz remains largely closed. This aligns with recent off-ramp rhetoric but underscores ongoing supply chain and energy risks, especially following Iran’s strike on a Kuwaiti oil tanker near Dubai.
Focus today on JOLTS and home price data, alongside multiple Fed speakers (Goolsbee, Barr, Bowman), with key macro data (ADP, ISM, retail sales, payrolls) later this week.
Company highlights:
- Netflix (NFLX): Exploring expansion of NFL game package (2 → 4 games)
- Unilever (UL) / McCormick (MKC): In advanced talks to combine food businesses (~$60B entity)
- General Motors (GM): Increasing heavy-duty truck production on stronger demand
- M&T Bank (MTB): Announced $5B buyback (~17% of market cap)
- Progress Software (PRGS): Beat and raised FY guidance on strong FCF and customer growth
- Allbirds (BIRD): Being acquired by AXNY in ~$39M deal
U.S. equities remained under pressure on Monday to close out March, with the S&P 500 extending its drawdown to six-month lows amid a volatile mix of geopolitical risk, rate repricing, and growth concerns. The macro backdrop continued to be defined by oil volatility and shifting rate dynamics, with crude pushing back above $100 (WTI +4.9%) even as Treasuries staged a relief rally (2Y -8 bp, 10Y -9 bp) following last week’s sharp yield spike and weak auction cycle.
Geopolitics remained the dominant driver. While headlines pointed to incremental progress in U.S.-Iran negotiations and some reopening of Hormuz shipping lanes, markets continued to discount near-term resolution given persistent escalation risks, including potential U.S. ground operations and retaliatory threats across the region. At the same time, spillover effects into global growth and supply chains gained more attention, reinforcing a stagflationary narrative.
Policy signals were mixed. Fed Chair Powell emphasized limited ability to offset supply shocks, while Governor Miran maintained a more dovish stance, suggesting up to 100 bp of cuts over time. Meanwhile, economic data softened at the margin, with the Dallas Fed manufacturing index surprising to the downside, adding to concerns about slowing activity even as inflation pressures remain elevated. Positioning and sentiment were cited as supportive for near-term stabilization, though no clear capitulation signals have emerged.
Sector Highlights
Sector performance reflected a defensive rotation alongside selective rate relief. Financials (+1.10%) led gains, followed by utilities (+0.66%), consumer staples (+0.57%), and healthcare (+0.36%), as investors gravitated toward more stable earnings profiles amid macro uncertainty. Utilities in particular benefited from the pullback in yields, reinforcing their rate-sensitive defensive characteristics.
Conversely, cyclicals and growth lagged, with industrials (-1.61%), technology (-1.49%), and energy (-0.87%) underperforming. The weakness in energy despite higher crude highlighted positioning fatigue and volatility, while tech continued to face pressure from prior rate spikes and ongoing scrutiny around AI capex returns. Overall, sector dispersion remained elevated, with leadership favoring defensives over growth in a still fragile macro environment.
Communication Services
- Meta Platforms (META): Testing a premium Instagram subscription product.
Information Technology
- Palo Alto Networks (PANW): +5.0% after CEO disclosed ~$10M open market stock purchase.
- CrowdStrike (CRWD): +2.8% on analyst upgrade citing valuation after AI-driven pullback.
Financials
- Fannie Mae (FNMA): +51.2% on bullish commentary from high-profile investors.
- Freddie Mac (FMCC): Also sharply higher alongside FNMA (no exact % provided).
- Apollo Global (APO): No material price move cited; nearing ~$10B aviation deal.
Consumer Discretionary
- Alaska Air (ALK): -5.5% after lowering Q1 EPS guidance on higher fuel costs and demand softness.
- Dave & Buster’s (PLAY): +2.3% following insider share purchase disclosure.
Consumer Staples
- Sysco (SYY): -15.3% after announcing ~$29B acquisition of Jetro Restaurant Depot and pausing buybacks.
- Colgate-Palmolive (CL): +1.7% on upgrade citing durable fundamentals and valuation support.
Industrials / Materials
- Alcoa (AA): +8.2% as aluminum prices reacted to Middle East supply disruptions.
Healthcare
- United Therapeutics (UTHR): +12.5% on positive pivotal trial results.
- Viridian Therapeutics (VRDN): -32.4% on concerns around commercial viability despite meeting endpoints.
- Boston Scientific (BSX): -9.0% following downgrade tied to slowing growth trends.
Eco Data Releases | Tuesday March 31st, 2026
S&P 500 Constituent Earnings Announcements | Tuesday March 31st, 2026
Data sourced from FactSet Research Systems Inc.
