April 8, 2026
S&P Futures +2.7%
Futures are surging after the U.S. and Iran agreed to a two-week ceasefire that includes some form of Strait of Hormuz reopening. The market is focused squarely on near-term de-escalation rather than the lack of deal details or the complexity of restoring energy shipping and reaching a permanent resolution. The setup is textbook risk-on: oil cratering, yields dropping, volatility collapsing, and equities ripping. VIX is pushing back toward 20. The recovery trade is further supported by positioning and sentiment dynamics, a still-solid macro backdrop, and an upcoming Q1 earnings season expected to mark a sixth consecutive quarter of double-digit profit growth.
Treasuries are rallying hard with yields down 7–9 bps across most of the curve. Dollar index -1.0%. Gold +2.9%. Silver +6.9%. Bitcoin futures +3.5%. WTI crude -15.9%. Copper +3.6%.
On the calendar today: No U.S. economic data this morning. Treasury sells $39B in 10-year notes early this afternoon. March FOMC minutes at 14:00 ET — prior takeaways leaned hawkish, highlighting Powell’s comments on extended inflation overshoot, the need for progress on goods inflation before cutting rates, and a largely stable unemployment rate. Thursday brings February personal income, spending, and PCE inflation, initial jobless claims, and the third Q4 GDP release. Friday brings March CPI, February factory orders, and preliminary April University of Michigan sentiment and inflation expectations.
Company News
- Delta Air Lines (DAL) — Guided Q2 EPS below consensus but noted demand remains strong and highlighted actions to protect margins and cash flow.
- Blue Owl Capital (OWL) — Moody’s cut the outlook on its flagship private credit fund to negative.
- Ford (F) — Reportedly failed to secure White House relief on aluminum tariffs despite bottlenecks stemming from fires at a key U.S. factory.
- Nutanix (NTNX) — Announced FY29 financial targets and a $750M share buyback at its analyst day.
- Levi Strauss (LEVI) — Q1 results beat with broad-based strength; raised FY26 guidance despite flagging heightened macro uncertainty.
- Greenbrier Companies (GBX) — Fiscal Q2 missed and lowered FY guidance, citing order timing and increased investment.
Equities finished mostly flat in another headline-whipsawed session on Tuesday (Dow -0.18% | S&P 500 +0.08% | Nasdaq +0.10% | Russell 2000 +0.17%), grinding to near best levels late in the day on reports of possible Iran de-escalation ahead of Trump’s 20:00 ET deadline. The session was defined by extreme geopolitical noise: Trump dramatically ratcheted up rhetoric (“a whole civilization will die tonight”), U.S. and Israeli forces launched additional strikes on Kharg Island, and Iran cut off diplomatic communications with the U.S. after the threats. But diplomacy remained alive — Pakistan proposed a two-week extension with Hormuz reopened for that period, Tehran is reportedly reviewing, and the White House said it will respond. The market is pricing in another extension as the base case, with outsized moves expected in either direction depending on tonight’s outcome.
On the energy front, conditions continue to deteriorate: some European and Asian refiners are paying near $150/barrel for physical oil in certain grades, over 9 million bpd of Middle Eastern production is expected to be shut in April, OPEC output plunged by the most in at least four decades in March, and Iran threatened to close the Bab el-Mandeb waterway if necessary. China vetoed a Bahraini UN resolution on protecting Hormuz shipping. Russia’s Norsi refinery has also suspended processing since April 5.
Economic data was mixed. Headline February durable goods orders fell 1.4% m/m, worse than the -0.5% consensus, with January revised down to -0.5% from flat. However, ex-transport orders rose 0.8% m/m (vs. +0.5% expected) and core capital goods orders were up 0.6% m/m, both beating. ADP’s weekly employment tracker estimated private employers added 26K jobs per week for the four weeks through March 21, the highest pace so far this year. The NY Fed’s March consumer survey showed one-year inflation expectations rising to 3.4%, with three-year at 3.1% and five-year unchanged at 3.0%. In Fedspeak, NY Fed’s Williams said the Iran conflict and energy shock will drive up inflation. Goolsbee said the Fed is in an “uncomfortable position” with no obvious policy roadmap. Williams reiterated policy is where it needs to be and stressed his base case remains for underlying inflation to come down later this year.
The $58B 3-year note auction stopped through by 1.2 bps with very strong foreign demand. Treasury sells $39B in 10-year notes tomorrow and $22B in 30-year bonds Thursday. Yields were down ~4 bps at the short end (2-yr 3.81%, 10-yr 4.31%, 30-yr 4.89%) with the curve steepening. Dollar index -0.3% to 99.65. Gold +0.9% to $4,726. Silver -1.1%. Bitcoin futures -1.1%. WTI crude +1.5% to $112.11, hitting a fresh post-2022 high.
On the calendar this week: March FOMC minutes Wednesday afternoon. Thursday brings February personal income, spending, and PCE inflation, initial jobless claims, and the third Q4 GDP release. Friday brings March CPI — Street looking for headline +1.0% m/m / +3.4% y/y, core +0.3% m/m / +2.7% y/y — along with February factory orders and preliminary April University of Michigan sentiment and inflation expectations.
Sector Performance
A tale of two markets Tuesday, with defensives and rate-sensitive names mixed while energy and communication services led. Communication Services (+1.03%) was the top performer, driven by strength in Alphabet and Universal Music Group. Energy (+0.78%) gained despite crude’s choppy session, supported by the persistent supply disruption backdrop. Technology (+0.35%) held up, led by networking and Broadcom’s AI partnership announcements. Utilities (+0.26%) and Healthcare (+0.23%) were modest outperformers, the latter boosted by a much better-than-expected final Medicare Advantage rate update. On the downside, Consumer Staples (-1.76%) was the worst performer by a wide margin. Consumer Discretionary (-0.91%) lagged on weakness in homebuilders, apparel, restaurants, and airlines. Materials (-0.26%) and Industrials (-0.21%) both declined. Real Estate (-0.08%) was essentially flat. Financials (+0.02%) were barely positive despite bank strength, offset by weakness elsewhere in the sector.
Company News by GICS Sector
Communication Services
- Universal Music Group (UNVGY) +13.9% — Bill Ackman’s Pershing Square proposed a cash-and-stock merger valuing the company at more than €55B (~$65B+), representing a ~78% premium to prior close.
- Paramount Skydance (PSKY) +10.7% — Said it has received ~$24B in commitments from three Middle Eastern sovereign wealth funds backing its takeover of Warner Bros. Discovery.
- Alphabet (GOOGL) — Named in Broadcom’s long-term TPU development agreement and the expanded Anthropic compute collaboration; shares among the Mag 7 outperformers.
- Trade Desk (TTD) -6.8% — Reportedly losing three executives including CMO Ian Colley, following the resignation of board member Lise Buyer.
Information Technology
- Broadcom (AVGO) +6.2% — Announced a long-term agreement through 2031 to develop and supply custom TPUs for Google, including a supply assurance agreement covering networking components. Also announced an expanded compute deal with Google and Anthropic. Street viewed positively given concerns about share loss at Google.
- Arista Networks (ANET) +5.9% — Upgraded to Buy from Neutral at Rosenblatt Securities; cited increased confidence in the XPO strategy and better understanding of large front-end wins with Google and Anthropic.
- Samsung Electronics (005930.KS) — Preliminary Q1 results meaningfully exceeded expectations; operating profit came in at nearly triple the prior record on AI-driven memory demand.
- Arm Holdings (ARM) -3.3% — Downgraded to Equal-Weight from Overweight at Morgan Stanley; flagged in-line guidance against a challenging demand backdrop, end-market softness, DRAM supply constraints, and uncertain margin dynamics.
- Apple (AAPL) -2.1% — Nikkei reported setbacks in the engineering test phase that could delay mass production of the foldable iPhone; Bloomberg separately reported the September launch remains on track.
- Anthropic — ARR now running above $30B, up from $9B at end of 2025, on Claude customer momentum. Separately debuted a preview of new AI model “Mythos” as part of a new cybersecurity initiative.
Consumer Discretionary
- Delta Air Lines (DAL) — Hiked bag check fees by up to $50 as jet fuel prices surge.
- Sony — To announce job cuts across film, TV, and corporate divisions as part of a business restructuring.
- Ulta Beauty (ULTA) — CEO flagged GLP-1 drug adoption as a potential driver of demand for topical beauty products.
Healthcare
- UnitedHealth Group (UNH) +9.4% — CMS finalized CY27 Medicare Advantage capitation rates at a net average increase of +2.48%, or over $13B in additional MA payments — 239 bps better than the Advance Notice. Lifted the broader managed care and hospital space.
- Artivion (AORT) +5.3% — Received FDA approval for its NEXUS Aortic Arch System.
- Hologic (HOLX) — To be replaced by Casey’s General Stores (CASY) in the S&P 500.
Financials
- Western Alliance Bancorp (WAL) -1.5% — Assumed Neutral at UBS vs. prior Buy; flagged credit concerns and earnings pressure in a higher-for-longer rate environment.
- Casey’s General Stores (CASY) — Set to join the S&P 500, replacing Hologic.
Real Estate
- Park Hotels & Resorts (PK) -1.2% — Downgraded to Equal-Weight from Overweight at Barclays; cited valuation and reduced confidence in the company completing its non-core asset sale program in 2026.
Industrials
- Topbuild (BLD) -2.7% — Downgraded to Neutral from Buy at Seaport Research; cited sector concerns including weaker job growth’s impact on margin stability and the single-family starts cycle bottom.
- Bayer — CEO said no need to adjust 2026 guidance for tariffs and expressed confidence the U.S. will honor its deal with the EU.
Eco Data Releases | Wednesday April 8th, 2026
S&P 500 Constituent Earnings Announcements | Wednesday April 8th, 2026
Data sourced from FactSet Research Systems Inc.
