March 28, 2025
S&P futures are down 0.1% in premarket trading, off earlier lows, following Thursday’s mixed session that left major indices modestly lower. Despite recent volatility, all key benchmarks remain on track for weekly gains. European markets are lower, following a broadly weaker session in Asia. Treasuries are firmer with some curve flattening, though yields remain higher week-to-date. Gold is up another 0.6% after Thursday’s record gain. Bitcoin futures down 2.2%, while WTI crude is flat, still heading for a third straight weekly gain.
Tariff concerns continue to dominate as markets look ahead to the April 2 “Liberation Day” reciprocal tariff announcement. While some hope this will reduce uncertainty, there’s growing anxiety about the economic impact, especially following this week’s 25% auto tariff news, which could raise consumer prices (despite Trump warning automakers not to). Canada’s PM Carney suggested potential retaliation. Meanwhile, growth fears, a stronger dollar, and hawkish Fed commentary continue to weigh, though month- and quarter-end flows and cleaner positioning could offer support.
Today’s focus is on the February core PCE inflation report, expected to rise 0.3% m/m, with the y/y figure ticking up to 2.7%. Also due: final University of Michigan consumer sentiment data for March, following a weak preliminary read with higher inflation expectations. Fed speakers Barr and Bostic are on deck, though policy-related comments may be limited.
Corporate Highlights
- LULU: Earnings and revenue beat, but guidance missed; comp sales light; flagged FX and tariff pressures.
- OXM: Weak guidance; cited softening consumer demand.
- BRZE: Beat and raised guidance; noted strength in contract expansion and new business wins.
- AAR: Highlighted solid sales growth and margin expansion.
- AGX: Posted a big earnings beat; pointed to a healthy backlog.
- INR: Reported first post-IPO beat, citing solid momentum.
- X: Reports Nippon Steel may pledge $7B in U.S. investment to preserve takeover deal.
- WRB: Mitsui Sumitomo reportedly set to acquire a 15% stake.
U.S. equities finished lower (Dow -0.37%, S&P 500 -0.33%, Nasdaq -0.53%, Russell 2000 -0.39%) for a second straight session on Thursday, unable to regain momentum following Wednesday’s pullback. The S&P, Nasdaq, and Russell 2000 all closed in the red, though losses were modest and markets finished off their lows. Defensive sectors outperformed while cyclical and tech names lagged, continuing recent sector rotation. Notably, the equal-weight S&P outperformed the cap-weighted benchmark by nearly 90 basis points.
Markets remain focused on trade headlines. On Wednesday, President Trump announced a 25% tariff on all cars not produced in the U.S., with duties to take effect on April 3. The administration emphasized the permanence of the move and hinted at additional levies on pharmaceuticals, lumber, and copper. However, Trump also said the widely anticipated April 2 reciprocal tariff announcement will be “lenient”, fueling some hopes for a more targeted approach.
From a macro perspective, hard data continues to surprise to the upside. Weekly jobless claims were steady and in line with estimates, while Q4 GDP was revised up to 2.4%, supported by solid consumer spending. Pending home sales for February rose 2.0%, beating expectations. Meanwhile, the U.S. Treasury’s final $44B auction in a week of $183B in supply tailed slightly, as investors remain wary of fiscal dynamics and Fed policy.
Markets are also weighing recent hawkish Fedspeak, particularly around tariff-driven inflation risk. Fed’s Barkin was scheduled to speak after the close. Attention now turns to Friday’s core PCE inflation, personal income/spending, and University of Michigan sentiment, as well as key jobs and ISM data next week. In Washington, progress around reconciliation and the debt ceiling is being closely monitored.
Company News by GICS Sector
Information Technology (S&P 500 -0.75%)
- APP -20.1%: Fell sharply after Muddy Waters released a short report alleging issues with e-commerce conversions and data collection practices that may violate platform terms of service.
- SNX -14.3%: Missed on FQ1 earnings and revenue; Hyve underperformed due to delayed shipments and demand softness; guided Q2 below consensus.
- VRNT -13.4%: Missed across the board; flagged customer delays in infrastructure upgrades and deal slippage; FY26 guidance cut despite upbeat AI commentary.
- AMD -3.2%: Downgraded to Hold at Jefferies, citing weak AI traction and intensifying competition from Intel.
Consumer Discretionary (S&P 500 +0.09%)
- GME -22.1%: Dropped after announcing a $1.3B convertible debt offering to fund a Bitcoin treasury allocation.
- GM -7.4%: Declined on tariff news; one of the biggest losers among autos.
- WGO +8.1%: Beat on FQ2 earnings and revenue; Towable RV segment performed well, but guidance trimmed due to macro uncertainty and consumer sentiment.
- SCS +6.6%: Q4 beat on earnings and revenue; noted large corporate customers driving order strength, though smaller businesses remain cautious.
- CAVA +2.0%: Will replace ALTR in the S&P MidCap 400 on March 31.
- KAR -7.9%: Downgraded to Neutral at JPMorgan amid tariff concerns and delays in the off-lease recovery cycle.
- GME (also consumer discretionary) and broader weakness in high-beta media and entertainment names weighed on the sector.
Communication Services (S&P 500 -0.84%)
- No notable gainers.
Financials (S&P 500 +0.23%)
- JEF -9.9%: Earnings and revenue missed; management cited weak asset management performance and challenging macro/policy backdrop.
- CNXC +42.4%: Surged on EPS, FCF, and revenue beats; highlighted growth in AI deployment and market share gains in data services.
Healthcare (S&P 500 +0.19%)
- SLNO +37.6%: Jumped after receiving FDA approval for VYKAT XR to treat hyperphagia in Prader-Willi syndrome.
- BLCO -4.3%: Initiated a voluntary recall of certain intraocular lenses due to reported complications.
Industrials (S&P 500 -0.51%)
- SCS +6.6% (see above under Consumer Discretionary).
- FUL + modest gain: Beat on Q1 sales and EBITDA; reaffirmed guidance despite macro headwinds.
- XPO: Announced $750M share buyback, helping support shares.
- KD -5.1%: Dropped after Gotham City Research short report questioning cost structures and IBM exposure.
Consumer Staples (S&P 500 +1.00%)
- Sector outperformed on rotation into defensives amid tariff and macro uncertainty.
Energy (S&P 500 -0.85%)
- PARR +4.0%: Upgraded to Buy at Goldman Sachs; cited attractive valuation and recovery potential in refining margins.
- Oil majors gained modestly as WTI crude rose 0.4%.
Real Estate (S&P 500 +0.25%) & Utilities (S&P 500 +0.04%)
- Benefited from risk-off rotation and declining real yields.
Materials (S&P 500 -0.03%)
- Sector mixed amid tariff noise and copper-related headlines.
Industrials & Autos (select names)
- NOC +1.3%: Upgraded to Outperform at RBC on strong positioning for evolving DoD priorities and B-21 program success
Eco Data Releases | Friday March 28th, 2025
S&P 500 Constituent Earnings Announcements | Friday March 28th, 2025
No constituents report today
Data sourced from FactSet Research Systems Inc.
