March 31, 2025
S&P Futures Down 0.9% Monday Morning. Markets are in risk-off mode following Friday’s sharp selloff, with the S&P 500 now down in five of the last six weeks. The Mag 7 posted its first six-week losing streak since May 2022. Asian and European equities are sharply lower, Treasuries are rallying (yields down 6–8 bp), and gold is up 1.2% as investors seek safety. Dollar is down slightly, Bitcoin futures off 1.3%, and WTI crude is up 0.5%, partly on Trump’s weekend comments regarding Russia and Iran.
Macro Overhangs & Key Drivers
- Tariffs remain the top concern with hawkish weekend articles ahead of Wednesday’s “Liberation Day” reciprocal tariff announcement. Market fears more onerous rates and extended trade uncertainty, dashing hopes for a near-term clearing event.
- Additional pressure from reports of potential tax hikes on top earners and corporations, including possible SALT deduction elimination.
- Strategists citing stretched valuations, although positioning is cleaner and inflows into U.S. equities remain strong.
Economic Calendar Highlights
- Today: Chicago PMI, Dallas Fed manufacturing
- Tuesday: ISM manufacturing, JOLTS, construction spending
- Wednesday: ADP payrolls, factory orders, Fed’s Kugler, tariff announcement
- Thursday: ISM services, trade balance, jobless claims, Fed speakers (Jefferson, Cook)
- Friday: Nonfarm payrolls, Fed Chair Powell speaks; also Bar and Waller this week
- Senate GOP may vote on reconciliation blueprint
Corporate Headlines
- Earnings due this week: PVH, RH, CAG, LW, MSM, GES
- TSLA expected to report Q1 deliveries
- AAPL working on new Health app; racing SpaceX to close cell coverage gaps
- AI spending slowdown noted across companies as they shift to cheaper models (The Information)
- FCC investigating DIS over DEI practices
- BX reportedly considering a small stake in TikTok’s U.S. arm (Reuters)
- Elon Musk merged xAI with X (Twitter), valuing the former at $80B and the latter at $33B
U.S. equities closed sharply lower on Friday, Dow (1.69%), S&P 500 (1.97%), Nasdaq (2.70%), Russell 2000 (2.05%). capping a turbulent week dominated by trade policy uncertainty and inflation concerns. The S&P 500 recorded its second-worst session of the year, while the Nasdaq notched its fourth-worst, as risk appetite deteriorated into the close. All major averages posted losses for the week, now down in five of the past six weeks.
The market remained laser-focused on tariff policy, particularly the lead-up to April 2nd “Liberation Day”, when President Trump is expected to unveil a broad reciprocal tariff framework. While some optimism lingered around reports of leniency or targeted measures, the confirmation of 25% auto tariffs on all non-U.S.-made vehicles—set to take effect on April 3rd—fueled anxiety about higher consumer prices and global retaliation. Canada warned that “nothing is off the table,” while reports suggested the EU is drafting a list of concessions to potentially avoid harsher trade actions.
Inflation data renewed hawkish fears. The February core PCE index, the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge, rose 0.4% month-over-month, above the 0.3% consensus, while the annualized rate ticked up to 2.8%. Meanwhile, the final March University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment report showed 1-year inflation expectations rising to 5.0% (highest since Nov-22) and 5-year expectations jumping to 4.1%, marking a 32-year high. These readings reinforce concerns that price pressures may persist longer than anticipated, complicating the Fed’s policy path. Still, San Francisco Fed President Daly reiterated her expectation for two rate cuts this year, while markets remain focused on June as the earliest possible pivot.
Elsewhere, Treasuries firmed, with yields falling 8–11 bps on the day and the curve flattening. Gold rose 0.8% to a new record close above $3100/oz, supported by safe-haven flows. WTI crude slipped 0.8% but secured its third consecutive weekly gain, and the U.S. Dollar Index fell 0.3%. Bitcoin futures dropped 3.2%.
Company-Specific News (by GICS Sector)
Information Technology (-2.43%)
- WOLF -51.9%: Cratered after failing to reach a debt swap deal with bondholders; ongoing uncertainty around CHIPS Act grant added to pressure.
- KLAC -3.8%: Downgraded to Hold from Buy at Jefferies; cited weaker semi demand and geopolitical risk.
- DV -4.7%: Downgraded to Neutral at Baird on macro headwinds, execution issues, and diminished investor sentiment.
Consumer Discretionary (-3.27%)
- LULU -14.2%: Q4 earnings/revenue beat, but comps missed and guidance disappointed; cited tariff headwinds from China and Mexico.
- OXM -5.7%: Guidance weak; noted slowing consumer demand and rising promotional activity.
- APP +4.1%: Rebounded after CEO rebutted short-seller claims; emphasized ad platform strength and data practices aligned with peers.
Communication Services ( -3.81%)
- RKLB +1.1%: Added to U.S. Space Force launch program, expanding potential national security contract wins.
Health Care (+0.28%)
- WRB +7.5%: Rose after Mitsui Sumitomo Insurance announced a 15% equity stake.
- BLCO -5.8%: Downgraded at Wells Fargo after intraocular lens recall; flagged near-term revenue and margin pressure.
- SLNO +37.6%: Surged on FDA approval of VYKAT XR for Prader-Willi syndrome.
Industrials ( -2.04%)
- AGX +19.9%: Strong Q4 beat; highlighted a robust project pipeline and rising power-sector demand.
- AAR (unquoted): Positive commentary on margin expansion and sales momentum.
Financials (-1.94%)
- JEF -9.9%: Fell on earnings miss; management flagged weaker asset management returns and geopolitical uncertainty.
- INR (unquoted): Posted earnings beat in first post-IPO report.
Real Estate (+0.01%)
- No major company-specific headlines noted.
Utilities (+0.76%)
- Sector supported by risk-off sentiment and falling yields
Eco Data Releases | Monday March 31st, 2025
S&P 500 Constituent Earnings Announcements |Monday March 31st, 2025
No constituents report today
Data sourced from FactSet Research Systems Inc.
