S&P futures are up 1.2% Monday morning as markets rally on news of a U.S.-Iran agreement to end the war and reopen the Strait of Hormuz. The move follows a volatile but higher Friday session, with semis, memory, banks, and transports among the leaders. Global markets are stronger, led by Japan’s Nikkei and South Korea’s KOSPI, while European indexes are also higher. Treasuries are firmer with curve bull steepening, the dollar is down 0.2%, gold is up 2.8%, silver is up 4.0%, Bitcoin futures are up 3.3%, and WTI crude is down 5.5%.
The agreement is driving a classic risk-on move: stocks up, oil down, yields lower. Trump said the deal will end the war and permanently reopen the Strait of Hormuz toll-free, while Iran’s Supreme National Security Council confirmed the text has been finalized and that fighting will end on all fronts, including Lebanon. The memorandum is expected to be signed Friday in Switzerland. However, the deal leaves the fate of Iran’s nuclear program for later negotiations, and Trump warned military action could resume if Iran fails to reach a final nuclear accord. Markets still price roughly 15 bp of Fed hikes through year-end, reflecting expectations that energy and supply-chain disruptions will take time to unwind even after a deal.
AI remains the other major narrative. The U.S. issued export controls requiring Anthropic to limit Mythos model access to U.S. nationals only, citing security concerns, adding another layer of complexity to the AI story.
Company News
- Anthropic: Restricted access to its latest Mythos models after U.S. export controls limited usage to U.S. nationals on national-security grounds.
- SPCX: CEO Elon Musk said he would be surprised if SpaceX revenue does not exceed $1T in 2031, up from $19B in 2025.
- WMT: Sam’s Club was summoned by Chinese regulators over food-safety issues.
- PARA / WBD: Paramount’s acquisition of Warner Bros. Discovery received DOJ approval.
- ROKU: Late Friday reports said the company is considering a sale.
- ETOR: Reportedly considering multiple acquisitions and may apply for a banking license.
Economic Calendar
Today brings the June Empire State Index, May industrial production, and June NAHB builder confidence. The main event this week is Wednesday’s June FOMC meeting, the first under Chair Warsh. Markets expect no rate change, though the latest Iran deal could give the meeting a more dovish tilt if it points to easing inflation pressure. The updated SEP, dot plot, and inflation outlook will be closely watched. May retail sales are also due Wednesday and are expected to rise 0.6% m/m, which would mark a fourth straight solid print and reinforce the resilient-consumer narrative.
U.S. equities finished higher Friday, though off best levels, with the Dow up 0.70%, S&P 500 up 0.50%, Nasdaq up 0.31%, and Russell 2000 up 0.79%. The session was choppy as investors digested shifting headlines around a potential U.S.-Iran memorandum of understanding. Iran’s foreign minister said an MOU is “closer than ever” and would stipulate a ceasefire on all fronts, while White House officials said they are 80–85% confident the U.S. will sign an agreement that reopens the Strait of Hormuz and transfers control of Iran’s nuclear material. However, timing remains unclear and Iranian media pushed back against reports that a deal could be completed before the G7 meeting. WTI crude fell 3.8% to $84.38, its lowest close since April 17, while Treasury yields rose modestly after Thursday’s sharp decline. The 2-year yield rose 3 bp to 4.09%, the 10-year rose 3 bp to 4.48%, and the 30-year rose 2 bp to 4.97%. The dollar slipped 0.1%, gold rose 2.9%, and silver gained 6.2%.
The macro data were supportive of a slightly better consumer sentiment backdrop. Preliminary June University of Michigan sentiment rose to 48.9, ahead of estimates and up from May’s record-low 44.8. Current conditions and expectations both improved, while inflation expectations moved lower. One-year inflation expectations fell 0.3 pp to 4.6%, and 5–10-year expectations declined 0.5 pp to 3.4%, though both remain above pre-war levels. The main event next week is the June FOMC meeting, Kevin Warsh’s first as Fed chair, with markets broadly expecting no rate change but likely focused on inflation and the potential for future tightening. May retail sales are also due Wednesday, while G7 leaders, including Trump, are scheduled to meet in Geneva.
Sector performance was broadly positive, led by cyclicals and rate-sensitive groups. Materials gained 1.83%, Financials rose 1.35%, Utilities added 1.12%, Real Estate gained 0.95%, Energy rose 0.72%, Consumer Staples added 0.69%, and Industrials gained 0.58%. Technology rose 0.37%, Communication Services gained 0.33%, and Consumer Discretionary was roughly flat at +0.01%. Healthcare was the only decliner, down 0.16%. Outperformers included semis, memory, energy, banks, insurers, exchanges, credit cards, asset managers, E&Cs, rails, chemicals, QSRs, cruise lines, and telecom. Laggards included software, MedTech, aerospace and defense, autos/suppliers, homebuilders, staples retailers, media, entertainment, and most space names outside of SpaceX.
Information Technology
- SPCX: SpaceX rallied after opening at $150/share following its record $75B IPO. Shares traded roughly 25% above the IPO price.
- CRWV +5.0%: Nasdaq announced CoreWeave will be added to the Nasdaq-100 on June 22, along with ALAB, NBIS, RKLB, and TER.
- AMD +4.7%: Upgraded to buy from neutral at Citi, which said AMD is positioned to win the lion’s share of Meta’s GPU business.
- CORZ +1.4%: Re-initiated buy at Lucid Capital Markets, which cited a new lease that reduces dependence on a single tenant and said the market is underpricing the company’s 850 MW pipeline.
- ADBE -6.8%: Fiscal Q2 revenue, total ARR, and EPS beat, and FY26 guidance was raised. However, decelerating core organic growth, a lowered organic ARR guide, CFO departure, and continued CEO search weighed on sentiment. Analysts also flagged concerns around freemium strategy, monetization, and competitive pressure.
Communication Services
- ROKU +20.1%: Rose after reports that the company is in talks to sell itself and has spoken with at least one U.S. media company.
- OpenAI: Reportedly reached 1B monthly average users in May.
- SPCX / Anthropic: SpaceX has reportedly leased the full capacity of its Memphis data center to Anthropic.
Consumer Discretionary
- WSM +2.2%: Reinstated buy at BofA, which expects Williams-Sonoma to remain a structural share gainer and sees margin expansion opportunities next year.
- LEN -4.9%: Fiscal Q2 EPS was in line, but revenue was light. Homebuilding gross margin and deliveries were slightly below expectations, while new order units, order price, backlog, and backlog value beat. Analysts were cautious on Q3 order guidance and lower FY deliveries.
- RH -3.9%: Q1 EPS loss was smaller than expected and revenue beat, but Q2 revenue guidance came in below Street expectations. Analysts remain cautious on the soft housing backdrop, RH Estates dependence, international expansion costs, and slowing revenue trends.
Financials
- Financials +1.35%: Outperformed, helped by strength in banks, insurers, exchanges, credit cards, and asset managers.
- Citigroup: Reportedly establishing blockchain-based trading of private shares, initially for foreign investors.
Healthcare
- MBX -4.7%: Announced one-year data showing sustained benefit from once-weekly canvuparatide as a potential PTH replacement therapy in chronic hypoparathyroidism. Shares fell after a strong run into the data release.
Industrials
- UNF -3.9%: Received a second request from the FTC related to its proposed merger with Cintas.
- E&Cs / rails: Outperformed as Industrials participated in the broader cyclical rally.
Eco Data Releases | Monday June 15th, 2026
S&P 500 Constituent Earnings Announcements | Monday June 15th, 2026
No constituents report today.
Data sourced from FactSet Research Systems Inc.
