April 2, 2025
S&P futures are down 0.5% in early trading after U.S. equities closed mostly higher Tuesday. Gains were led by a Mag 7 rebound and cyclical strength, while defensives lagged. Treasuries are firmer with yields down 1–2 bp. Dollar index is off 0.2%. Gold is up 0.5%, Bitcoin futures are down 0.3%, and WTI crude is flat.
Markets remain in wait-and-see mode ahead of today’s 4 PM ET tariff announcement from President Trump. Reports suggest the White House is still weighing multiple options, adding to headline volatility. While expectations have faded for today to be a major clearing event, investors are hoping it at least eases some uncertainty ahead of Friday’s key March jobs report.
Key Macro Focus:
- ADP Private Payrolls (Mar): Street expects +120K (vs +77K prior)
- Factory Orders (Feb): Also due this morning
- Fed Governor Kugler: Speaks after the close (4:30 PM ET)
- Friday: Nonfarm Payrolls (+140K est) and Powell speech (11:25 AM ET)
Corporate Highlights:
- TSLA, RH: Q1 deliveries and earnings due after the close
- WMT: Reportedly pushing Chinese suppliers for price cuts to offset tariff impact
- V: Offered AAPL $100M to take over credit card partnership from MA
- WOOF: Boosted by new CEO stock purchase
- TTEC: Surged after Special Committee said it is ready to negotiate with CEO over a potential acquisition
- SPWH: Jumped following a Q4 beat, upbeat FY26 guide, and signs of market share gains
U.S. equities closed mostly higher on Tuesday, with the S&P 500 up 0.38% and Nasdaq gaining 0.87%, while the Dow finished fractionally lower and the Russell 2000 flat. Gains were driven by a rebound in big tech, especially Tesla, and continued support for growth stocks. Treasuries were firmer across the curve with yields down 2-5 bp. The yield curve continued to flatten, suggesting cautious sentiment ahead of Wednesday’s high-stakes tariff announcement from the Trump administration. The dollar was unchanged, gold slipped 0.1%, and WTI crude ended down 0.4%, while Bitcoin futures gained 3.4%.
Markets remain in a holding pattern ahead of Wednesday’s tariff announcement. While the administration has emphasized a “country-based” reciprocal tariff approach, reports continue to float the possibility of a 20% universal tariff. This has contributed to elevated trade anxiety and tempered expectations for a quick clearing of trade uncertainty. Meanwhile, Fedspeak, particularly from Richmond Fed President Barkin, continued to emphasize the need for confidence before rate cuts, while also warning tariffs could increase inflation and weigh on employment.
On the economic data front, March ISM Manufacturing Index fell back into contraction at 49.0, with new orders at the lowest level since May 2023, a hotter-than-expected prices index (69.4), and employment also weaker. Meanwhile, the JOLTS job openings report showed the fewest openings since December 2024, and the hiring rate remained flat. Construction spending in February beat expectations, hitting the highest level since October.
Looking ahead, Wednesday brings ADP private payrolls, factory orders, and more Fed commentary along with Trump’s anticipated tariff announcement. Thursday will feature ISM Services, weekly jobless claims, and the trade balance, followed by Friday’s nonfarm payrolls report and remarks from Fed Chair Powell.
Company & Sector Highlights:
Consumer Discretionary (+1.13%)
- PVH (+18.2%): Surged after a Q4 EPS and revenue beat. Q1 and FY25 guidance topped consensus; analysts highlighted margin optimism despite tariff concerns.
- SHAK (+3.2%): Upgraded to buy at Loop Capital, citing an attractive valuation following a 25% decline.
- ULTA (+2.0%): Upgraded to buy at Goldman Sachs; firm said beauty sales have likely stabilized.
- ONON (-2.8%): Announced CEO transition to a single-leader structure as co-CEO Marc Maurer departs.
Communication Services (+1.02%)
- RBLX: Announced a new rewarded ads platform in partnership with Google to increase user engagement.
- WBD: Added a new independent director following activist investor pressure.
- Meta: Chief of AI research to depart in May.
- TikTok/Andreesen Horowitz: Firm reportedly in talks to back Oracle-led buyout bid for TikTok’s U.S. operations.
Information Technology (+0.95%)
- PRGS (+12.1%): Beat on Q1 EPS and revenue, raised FY25 EPS guidance. Management cited strong demand and smooth integration of ShareFile.
- QCOM: Reportedly considering acquisition offer for AWE.LN.
- NVDA (-1.2%): Weighed down by renewed AI capex concerns following a report in The Information suggesting companies are shifting to cheaper, more efficient models.
Healthcare (-1.75%)
- JNJ (-7.6%): Hit hard after court rejected its third attempt to use bankruptcy to settle talc-related litigation.
- HIMS (+5.1%): Reportedly set to offer Eli Lilly’s Zepbound via its telehealth platform, boosting revenue prospects.
- MRNA (-8.9%, prior session): Continued pressure after resignation of FDA’s top vaccine regulator, Peter Marks.
Industrials (+0.60%)
- BA: Reportedly slowed 737 Max monthly production after previously ramping output due to issues with wing systems.
- Airbus: March jet deliveries reportedly rose 11% m/m to ~70 units.
- AAL, DAL, LUV: All downgraded at Jefferies, citing softening travel demand and weak macro sentiment.
- LUV (-5.9%): Downgrade cited specifically weakening corporate and consumer sentiment.
Financials (-0.16%)
- No major corporate news, though sector underperformed broadly. Treasury market action suggests elevated recession concern, pressuring bank stocks.
Energy (+0.58%)
- BE (+8.0%): Announced collaboration with ConAgra (CAG) to deploy fuel cell technology at Ohio production facilities.
- OPEC+: Set to meet Thursday, expected to maintain planned output hikes.
- WTI Crude: Ended down slightly but remains up for the week on geopolitical support.
Consumer Staples (+0.28%)
- KDP (+2.2%): Upgraded to overweight at Morgan Stanley. Analysts cited pricing power and market share gains in the U.S. refreshment category.
- Illy: Warned tariffs will raise U.S. prices for imported coffee.
Materials (+0.32%)
- No major movers, though tariff commentary from ISM and global PMIs continues to highlight inflationary pressure on input costs.
Utilities (+0.30%)
- No sector-specific news, though continued strength in gold and flatter yield curve suggest ongoing defensive rotation.
Real Estate (+0.09%)
- No major corporate developments, though the sector held up modestly as bond yields declined.
Eco Data Releases | Wednesday April 2nd, 2025
S&P 500 Constituent Earnings Announcements |Wednesday April 2nd, 2025
No constituents report today
Data sourced from FactSet Research Systems Inc.
