U.S. equity futures are little changed Friday as investors shift their attention from Nvidia’s earnings to Fed Chair Kevin Warsh’s first Jackson Hole address. At roughly 5:20 a.m. ET, Dow futures were up 0.2%, S&P 500 futures were flat and Nasdaq 100 futures were down 0.3%. Thursday’s Nvidia-driven rally pushed the S&P 500 back within 1% of its August 13 record, but this morning’s positioning is cautious ahead of Warsh’s 10:00 a.m. ET speech.
Stocks advanced Thursday, with the Dow gaining 0.20%, the S&P 500 rising 0.72% and the Nasdaq climbing 1.57%. Nvidia’s 8.7% gain, Salesforce’s 22.6% surge and CrowdStrike’s 20.5% rally drove the move, while broader participation remained considerably weaker. NYSE breadth was negative, while Nasdaq advancers modestly outnumbered decliners. U.S. exchange volume was about 14.9 billion shares, close to recent averages.
Rates edged higher Thursday, with the 2-year Treasury yield up 1 basis point to 4.23%, the 10-year up 1 basis point to 4.67% and the 30-year up 1 basis point to 5.19%. Early Friday, the 10-year is near 4.68% and the 30-year around 5.20%. The DXY is holding near 99.1, with the euro around $1.165, sterling near $1.359 and the dollar around ¥159.45. Futures markets imply about a 35% probability of a September Fed hike and fully price a 25-basis-point increase by December.
October WTI rose 1.70% Thursday to $83.63 as investors scaled back expectations for an immediate U.S.-Iran diplomatic breakthrough, but crude is giving back some of that gain this morning. WTI is near $82.90, leaving it down roughly 4% for the week as oil flows through the Strait of Hormuz gradually improve. December gold gained 0.11% Thursday to $4,658.30 but is trading around $4,629 this morning ahead of Warsh’s remarks.
Today’s calendar centers almost entirely on Jackson Hole. Warsh speaks at 10:00 a.m. ET, following warnings from several Fed officials this week that inflation remains too high and monetary policy may not yet be sufficiently restrictive. The August Chicago PMI is due at 9:45 a.m., followed at 10:00 a.m. by final University of Michigan consumer sentiment and inflation expectations. Preliminary Michigan sentiment fell sharply to 51.0 from 55.2 in July, while one-year inflation expectations rose to 4.3%.
Sector Highlights
Sector performance was exceptionally concentrated Thursday. Technology surged 3.40% and was the only S&P 500 sector to finish higher. Consumer Staples fell 1.50%, Health Care declined 1.10%, Consumer Discretionary lost 1.02%, Real Estate fell 0.92%, Industrials declined 0.84%, Utilities and Communication Services each lost 0.75%, Materials fell 0.71%, Financials declined 0.58% and Energy slipped 0.37%. Breadth finished negative 1.26:1 on the NYSE and positive 1.09:1 on the Nasdaq.
Information Technology
- Marvell Technology (MRVL -7.5% premarket) is falling despite beating quarterly expectations and raising its longer-term AI revenue forecasts. Second-quarter revenue rose to $2.74 billion and adjusted EPS reached $0.94, while Marvell forecast third-quarter revenue of about $3.15 billion, above the $3.03 billion consensus. Management raised fiscal 2027 revenue expectations to $12 billion from $11.5 billion and fiscal 2028 expectations to $18 billion from $16.5 billion. The negative reaction reflects disappointment that meaningful revenue from Marvell’s expanded Google custom-chip agreement may not arrive until fiscal 2029 and beyond.
- Nvidia (NVDA) is modestly lower premarket after surging 8.7% Thursday. The company’s forecast for roughly 70% revenue growth next year reignited the AI trade, but Marvell’s post-earnings decline is weighing on several semiconductor-adjacent names Friday. Intel (INTC), SanDisk (SNDK) and Lumentum (LITE) are also trading lower premarket as investors reassess how quickly custom-silicon and AI infrastructure projects translate into revenue.
- Workday (WDAY) is under pressure after second-quarter revenue rose 12.8% to $2.65 billion, slightly above consensus, and adjusted EPS reached $2.75. Subscription revenue grew 13.9% to $2.47 billion, but third-quarter subscription guidance of roughly $2.52 billion offered limited upside relative to expectations. Management said more than half of new customers bought at least one AI product during the quarter, providing evidence that AI is currently supporting rather than cannibalizing Workday’s core software franchise.
- Autodesk (ADSK -4.2% premarket) is weaker after issuing third-quarter adjusted EPS guidance of $3.04-$3.09, below the roughly $3.14 consensus. Second-quarter revenue increased 16% to $2.05 billion, exceeding expectations, and Autodesk raised its annual revenue outlook, but the near-term profit guidance is overshadowing the quarterly beat.
- SentinelOne (S) fell more than 5% following results despite reporting adjusted EPS of $0.08 versus $0.07 expected and revenue of $292 million versus roughly $290 million expected. Annual recurring revenue grew 22% to $1.22 billion, but October-quarter revenue guidance of approximately $310 million was only in line with consensus after the stock had gained more than 50% during 2026.
Financials
- PayPal (PYPL -13% premarket) is plunging after reports that Advent International and Stripe abandoned their proposed takeover. The consortium had offered $60.50 per share, valuing PayPal at more than $53 billion, but PayPal’s board viewed the proposal as inadequate and financing and regulatory issues complicated negotiations. PayPal shares had risen roughly 30% since reports of the bid first emerged, leaving the stock vulnerable as that takeover premium unwinds.
- Affirm Holdings (AFRM +12% premarket) is rallying after fiscal fourth-quarter results exceeded expectations. Revenue increased 33% to $1.2 billion, while gross merchandise volume jumped 36% to $14.1 billion, above the roughly $13.4 billion consensus. Affirm expects fiscal 2027 GMV to exceed $64 billion, compared with approximately $50 billion during fiscal 2026, while active customers increased 21% to 27.8 million. Credit performance remained relatively stable despite broader concern about lower-income consumers.
Consumer Discretionary
- Gap (GAP +13% premarket) is surging after beating earnings expectations, raising guidance and appointing Michael Francis as CEO of Old Navy. Adjusted EPS of $0.52 topped the $0.48-$0.49 consensus, while revenue was roughly $3.65 billion. Gap-brand comparable sales increased 10%, extending its streak of positive comparisons to ten quarters, although Old Navy comps fell 4% and Athleta declined 12%. Gap raised full-year adjusted EPS guidance to $2.35-$2.45 from $2.30-$2.40.
- Ulta Beauty (ULTA -1% to -3% premarket) is lower despite beating second-quarter estimates and raising its annual outlook. Revenue increased 8.9% to $3.04 billion, EPS reached $6.55 versus roughly $6.20 expected, and comparable sales rose 3.8%. Ulta raised expected fiscal-year sales growth to 6.7%-7.2%, comparable-sales growth to 3.2%-3.7% and EPS guidance to $28.70-$29.00. The muted reaction reflects an elevated valuation after the stock’s recent rally rather than deterioration in the underlying results.
- Best Buy (BBY) remains in focus after Thursday’s report showed stronger electronics demand. Comparable sales increased 4.1%, well ahead of expectations, revenue reached $9.78 billion and adjusted EPS of $1.47 exceeded consensus. Best Buy raised its full-year revenue forecast to $42.3-$42.8 billion and EPS guidance to $6.70-$6.90, with computing and home-theater demand among the strongest categories.
Consumer Staples
- Dollar General (DG) gained Thursday after quarterly sales and earnings beat expectations and management raised its full-year outlook. Net sales reached $11.29 billion, EPS was $2.48 and same-store sales increased 3.5%, supported by both higher traffic and larger transaction sizes. Dollar General also plans to restart share repurchases during the second half of the year as value-seeking consumers continue shifting purchases toward lower-priced essentials.
- Dollar Tree (DLTR) moved in the opposite direction despite a quarterly revenue beat. Sales increased 7% to $4.89 billion and comparable sales rose 3.7%, but management forecast third-quarter EPS of just $0.80-$0.95 versus roughly $1.40 expected as the company reinvests tariff-refund proceeds into pricing, marketing and store operations. Dollar Tree nevertheless raised full-year EPS guidance to $7.70-$8.05.
Health Care
- Moderna (MRNA -4.6% Thursday) fell after announcing a $2 billion convertible bond offering, partially reversing its recent rally following encouraging melanoma-vaccine data. The financing raises dilution concerns even as investors remain focused on the longer-term opportunity for Moderna’s personalized cancer-vaccine platform and its partnership with Merck.
Data sourced from Factset/Reuters
