April 11, 2025
S&P futures are up 0.8% in choppy trading following Thursday’s sharp selloff, where the S&P 500 dropped nearly 3.5%, giving back over a third of Wednesday’s historic rally. Treasuries are little changed, but the 30-year yield is on pace for its largest weekly rise since the 1980s. The dollar index is down 1% and over 3% for the week, while gold is up 1.7%. Bitcoin futures are up 3.1%, and WTI crude is slightly lower (-0.2%).
U.S.-China trade tensions remain front and center after Beijing raised tariffs on U.S. goods to 125%, though it indicated it will not match further U.S. hikes. Reports suggest some chipmakers may be exempt. There’s increasing concern over the Trump administration’s ability to execute dozens of tailored trade deals within 90 days. The broader market is also reacting to perceived cracks in U.S. “exceptionalism,” with dollar weakness and bond volatility reflecting diminishing safe-haven status amid Trump 2.0 policy uncertainty.
Looking ahead, uncertainty is expected to be a dominant theme this earnings season, with more companies likely to pull or revise 2025 guidance.
Key Data Today:
- March PPI (est. +0.2% headline, +0.3% core)
- University of Michigan sentiment (prelim April) (est. 54.0 vs 57.0 prior)
- Fed speakers: Musalem and Williams
Earnings & Corporate Highlights:
- Big banks kick off Q1 earnings season today; Street expects S&P 500 earnings to grow +7% y/y.
- MLM: Preannounced Q1 revenue slightly light, EBITDA ahead; CFO resigning.
- LOGI: Pulled FY26 guidance citing tariff uncertainty.
- SMG: Will separate cannabis business due to stalled regulation.
- HOG: Exploring a $1B+ sale of its finance arm.
- ULCC: Issued negative Q1 preannouncement; unable to reaffirm 2025 guidance.
- THS: Preannounced Q1 EBITDA ahead of expectations; reaffirmed FY guide and unveiled efficiency initiative.
U.S. equities finished lower Thursday (Dow -2.50%, S&P 500 -3.46%, Nasdaq -4.31%, Russell 2000 -4.27%), giving back a large portion of Wednesday’s historic rally that saw the S&P 500 post its third-best daily gain since 1950. Today’s pullback reflected profit-taking, elevated volatility, and lingering uncertainty around trade policy. Despite the decline, major indices are still tracking solid weekly gains, thanks to the previous session’s surge.
Volatility remains elevated, with the VIX easing but still above historical norms. The Nasdaq 100, which gained 12% Wednesday, saw tech and semis lead declines today, with the SOX Index suffering its worst day since March 2020. Treasuries were mixed with curve steepening; the 30-year bond auction was well received. The U.S. Dollar Index fell 1.7%. Gold climbed 3.2% to a new record close, while WTI crude dropped 3.7%, hovering just above $60/barrel. Bitcoin futures were down 3.5%.
The broader pullback followed fresh concerns over U.S.-China tensions after the White House clarified China’s reciprocal tariff rate would rise to 145% (not 125% as previously reported). Reports also emerged that the administration is pursuing delisting Chinese firms from U.S. exchanges. Despite the pause in higher tariffs for 90+ countries, the market remains wary of ongoing trade policy volatility, intact 10% universal tariffs, and escalating geopolitical risks.
On the data front, March CPI came in notably cooler than expected: headline CPI declined 0.1% m/m (vs. +0.1% consensus), while core CPI rose just 0.1% (vs. +0.3% consensus). The annualized core inflation rate dropped below 3% for the first time since April 2021, now at +2.8% y/y. While disinflationary on the surface, the data predated April’s tariff announcements, which are expected to apply upward pressure in coming months.
Initial jobless claims rose to 223K (up from 222K), slightly below expectations. Continuing claims were also lower than forecast. In Fedspeak, Dallas Fed President Logan and Kansas City’s Schmid expressed caution over inflation risks, especially from tariffs. Goolsbee emphasized the outsized scale of the trade policy moves and forecast lower rates in 12–18 months.
On Capitol Hill, the House passed the Senate’s reconciliation bill after earlier opposition from deficit hawks. However, future steps remain uncertain due to GOP disagreements over spending cuts, Medicaid, SALT deductions, and potential tax increases on high earners.
Company-Specific News by GICS Sector
Information Technology (-4.55%)
- MSFT: Confirmed it is slowing or pausing select AI data center projects.
- TSM: Reported strong Q1 sales driven by AI and smartphone demand, but concerns surfaced around frontloading ahead of tariff escalation.
- QS (-6.9%): Downgraded to sell at UBS; firm cited vehicle price inflation, demand headwinds, and planning uncertainty due to trade policy.
Consumer Discretionary (-4.12%)
- AMZN: CEO warned that sellers will likely pass on tariff costs to consumers.
- F (-3.8%): Downgraded to neutral at Goldman Sachs; cited cyclical risks, international competition, and higher tariffs.
- GM (-4.4%): Downgraded at UBS; concerns over cost structure and impact of tariffs on demand.
- KMX (-17.0%): Missed Q4 EPS estimates; used vehicle comps below consensus; high bar into print noted by analysts.
- MODG: Announced sale of its Jack Wolfskin business to Anta Sports for $290M.
- HOG: Second-largest shareholder rep resigned from board, citing concerns about direction under current leadership.
Consumer Staples ( +0.21%)
- COST: March comp sales rose +6.4%, above expectations; traffic, ticket, and e-commerce all strong.
- STZ: Reported mixed Q4 results; cut guidance for FY26–28 beer revenue growth.
- EGG prices: U.S. egg prices hit a fresh record in March, jumping 5.6% to $6.23/dozen.
Healthcare (-2.78%)
- DXCM: Gained on FDA approval for a new glucose monitor product.
- ACT (+4.4%): Will replace SWI in the S&P SmallCap 600, effective April 16.
Financials (-2.89%)
- LNC (+14%): Jumped after announcing an $825M strategic investment from Bain Capital for a 9.9% stake.
Materials (-3.00%)
- X (-9.5%): Declined after Trump said he doesn’t want to see U.S. Steel go to Japan.
- Precious metals miners outperformed on strength in gold and copper.
- NEOG (-28.7%): Q4 EPS and revenue missed; lowered FY25 guidance due to macro uncertainty and tariff effects.
Energy ( -6.40%)
- Energy sector hit hard as WTI crude fell below $61/barrel.
- EIA cut global oil demand forecast by 400K bpd, citing trade-related slowdown.
- North Dakota pipeline spill cleanup ongoing; thousands of gallons of oil recovered.
Real Estate (-2.07%)
- TRNO: Reported a decline in occupancy, though investment and operations remained solid overall.
Utilities (-0.63%)
- Slight outperformance on defensive rotation amid rising macro uncertainty.
Communication Services (-4.14%)
- WBD (-12.5%): Slid after reports China will reduce U.S. film imports in retaliation for tariffs.
Eco Data Releases | Friday April 11th, 2025
S&P 500 Constituent Earnings Announcements | Friday April 11th, 2025
Data sourced from FactSet Research Systems Inc.
