U.S. equities are little changed to modestly higher Wednesday morning ahead of a heavy inflation, growth and employment-data slate. At 5:27 a.m. ET, Dow futures were up 0.18%, S&P 500 futures were up 0.10% and Nasdaq 100 futures were essentially flat at -0.01%. Tuesday, the S&P 500 fell 0.17%, the Dow declined 0.26%, the Nasdaq lost 0.08% and the Russell 2000 fell roughly 0.4%. Softer job-opening and consumer-confidence data helped pull shorter-term rate expectations lower late in the session, offsetting some pressure from long-term Treasury yields near multi-decade highs.
Treasury trading continued to show a sharp divergence between the front and long ends of the curve. The 2-year yield fell 4 basis points to 4.89%, while the 10-year rose 2 basis points to 5.25% and the 30-year gained 3 basis points to 5.59%. The 30-year briefly reached 5.62%, its highest level since 2002, while the 10-year touched its highest since 2007. Late-session pressure eased after New York Fed President John Williams said policymakers have time to assess incoming data; market pricing for an October rate increase fell to roughly 50% from nearly 70% earlier Tuesday. The 10-year is down about 3 basis points this morning ahead of PCE.
Tuesday’s economic data added a softer-growth counterweight to the inflation story. August JOLTS job openings declined by 256,000 to 7.079 million, below consensus, while the Conference Board’s September Consumer Confidence Index fell to 81.9 from 88.6, its lowest reading in nearly 12½ years. The combination suggests some cooling in labor demand and household sentiment even as high energy costs and long-term borrowing rates continue to pressure consumers.
The dollar remained firm Tuesday, with the DXY up 0.20 to 101.40. The euro fell 0.28% to $1.1338, sterling declined 0.21% to $1.3228, USD/JPY was nearly unchanged at ¥157.32, and EUR/JPY fell 0.31% to ¥178.39.
Commodity trading provided some relief from the recent inflation scare. November WTI crude fell $3.64, or 3.93%, to $88.96, although it has rebounded toward $90.20 this morning as stalled U.S.-Iran negotiations offset recovering Gulf exports. Brent is near $103 and remains on pace for a large September gain. December gold rose $38.50, or 0.92%, to $4,206.90 Tuesday.
Today’s 8:30 a.m. ET data cluster is unusually important. The BEA releases August Personal Income and Outlays/PCE inflation together with the third estimate of second-quarter GDP and corporate profits, while the September ADP National Employment Report is also due this morning. Economists surveyed by Reuters expect headline PCE inflation around 3.7% year over year. Several Fed officials are scheduled to speak later today, including Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari. The releases arrive with markets nearly evenly split on another October Fed increase, giving both inflation and employment data substantial potential to move rates.
Sector Highlights
Tuesday’s sector performance was mixed but breadth remained negative. Utilities +1.14% led, followed by Communication Services +0.40%, Industrials +0.19% and Consumer Discretionary +0.05%; Real Estate was essentially unchanged at -0.01%. The weaker groups were Energy -0.89%, Materials -0.55%, Consumer Staples -0.54%, Financials -0.37%, Health Care -0.32% and Technology -0.28%. Declining stocks outnumbered advancers by 1.41:1 on the NYSE and 1.49:1 on the Nasdaq, leaving market internals softer than the modest headline-index losses suggest.
Industrials
- Boeing (BA) is up roughly 3% premarket after winning a $20 billion U.S. Navy contract to develop the F/A-XX next-generation carrier-based stealth fighter. The award is an important strategic win for Boeing’s defense operation and follows its selection for the Air Force’s F-47 fighter program.
- Northrop Grumman (NOC) is down roughly 4% premarket after losing the F/A-XX competition to Boeing. The move reflects the significance of the program for future defense-aircraft revenue rather than a change in Northrop’s existing backlog.
Information Technology
- Micron Technology (MU) reports fiscal fourth-quarter results after tonight’s close in what is likely to be the day’s most important corporate test for the AI trade. Analysts expect an exceptionally large year-over-year revenue increase as HBM and other memory products benefit from AI-server demand. The report should provide a fresh read on memory pricing, HBM supply and the durability of AI infrastructure spending.
- Jabil (JBL) reports fiscal fourth-quarter and full-year results before the open and will outline its fiscal 2027 strategic and financial priorities at 8:30 a.m. ET. AI/data-center infrastructure, cloud hardware demand and manufacturing capacity should be key areas of focus.
- Nvidia (NVDA) is modestly higher premarket, while AMD and Marvell (MRVL) are slightly lower. The dispersion reflects some consolidation ahead of Micron’s results after a month in which AI enthusiasm remained an important offset to sharply higher discount rates.
Consumer Staples
- Conagra Brands (CAG) reports fiscal first-quarter results this morning, followed by its earnings Q&A at 9:30 a.m. ET. Investors will focus on volume, pricing, promotional activity and whether consumers continue migrating toward higher-protein and value-oriented food choices as household confidence weakens.
- McDonald’s (MCD) remains in focus following new reporting on its growing use of AI-driven menu-pricing tools. The system analyzes transaction patterns, local competition and customer willingness to pay to recommend restaurant-level pricing. The initiative could improve franchise economics and pricing precision but is also drawing scrutiny around affordability, franchisee relationships and potential regulatory issues.
Financials
- Robinhood Markets (HOOD) is up roughly 2% premarket after announcing plans to expand trading access to weekends for selected U.S. stocks and ETFs, subject to regulatory review. The company is also adding AI trading agents and new event-based trading capabilities as it continues to target more active retail customers.
- FactSet Research Systems (FDS) reports fiscal fourth-quarter results this morning and hosts its earnings call at 9:00 a.m. ET. Subscription growth, client retention, financial-industry hiring and adoption of FactSet’s AI-enabled data and workflow products should be central to the update.
Consumer Discretionary
- Tesla (TSLA) disclosed approximately $30 billion of new credit facilities as it prepares for elevated capital spending tied to AI-compute infrastructure, robotaxi development, solar manufacturing and semiconductor capacity. The financing highlights the increasingly capital-intensive nature of Tesla’s push beyond its core auto business.
Market Structure / Credit Scoring
- Fair Isaac (FICO) remains under pressure after federal housing regulators moved toward a unified mortgage-pricing framework incorporating VantageScore alongside FICO, potentially increasing competition in mortgage credit scoring. The issue is particularly important for FICO because of the historically high margins and recurring revenue associated with mortgage scores.
