Futures Recover After Democratic Sweep as AMD Reasserts the AI Demand Story
U.S. equity futures have recovered from sharp overnight losses after Democrats won control of both chambers of Congress in Tuesday’s midterm elections. Nasdaq-100 futures had fallen as much as 2.4% and S&P 500 futures 1.4% overnight, but by 4:22 a.m. ET Dow futures were +0.84%, S&P 500 futures +0.35% and Nasdaq-100 futures +0.16%. President Trump’s acceptance of the election result reduced concern over a prolonged political confrontation, while investors shifted toward assessing the implications of divided government for fiscal spending, AI regulation and data-center development. Trump retains veto authority, limiting the likelihood of an immediate wholesale policy reversal, but congressional oversight and regulatory risk have increased materially for several high-profile growth themes.
Tuesday’s market had already returned to concentrated growth leadership. The S&P 500 gained 0.36% and Nasdaq 0.83%, while the Dow fell 0.38%, as chip shares rebounded from last week’s liquidation. Nvidia gained 2.3%, Micron 2.6%, and Microsoft and Amazon each rose more than 2%, while Apple continued to weaken following its margin warning. The rebound occurred alongside stronger economic data: September job openings jumped to 7.523 million versus 7.1 million expected, hiring increased and layoffs fell to their lowest level since March 2025. The labor-market resilience helped drive Treasury yields higher Tuesday and preserved the possibility of another Fed hike despite the recent Technology correction.
The election is reversing part of that rates move this morning. Tuesday’s close saw the 2-year yield +4 bp to 4.62%, 10-year +6 bp to 4.96% and 30-year +6 bp to 5.33%, but Treasuries have rallied following the Democratic sweep as investors price somewhat less fiscal expansion and greater legislative gridlock; the 10-year has moved back toward 4.92%. The dollar is also weaker after DXY closed Tuesday at 101.86. WTI finished at $96.72 and remains volatile this morning as Iran diplomacy competes with continued military risk; the latest Reuters reading had WTI around $94.91, down roughly 1.2%.
Today has several meaningful macro catalysts beyond politics. ADP private payrolls are due at 8:15 a.m. ET, with consensus clustered around a 65,000–70,000 increase following September’s 90,000 gain. Treasury releases its Quarterly Refunding details at 8:30 a.m., after estimating fourth-quarter net marketable borrowing of $618 billion; any change to longer-duration auction sizes could materially affect the current Treasury rally. October ISM Services is due at 10:00 a.m., with consensus near 54.8 versus 54.9 in September. The employment picture then culminates with Friday’s October payroll report.
Sector Highlights
Tuesday’s Technology +1.31%, Industrials +0.96% and Communication Services +0.90% led the S&P 500, while Real Estate gained only 0.19%. The remaining sectors declined, led by Materials -1.93% and Consumer Staples -1.76%, followed by Energy -0.84%, Financials -0.59%, Utilities -0.55%, Health Care -0.30% and Consumer Discretionary -0.02%.
Breadth shows that Tuesday was a narrow rebound rather than a broad risk-on session. NYSE decliners led advancers 1.65:1, while Nasdaq breadth was only modestly positive at 1.08:1, despite the Nasdaq gaining 0.83%. The market therefore returned to the same concentration problem that has characterized much of the recent AI cycle: Technology can still lift the major indexes even when most stocks are falling. Today’s election reaction complicates that setup. Falling Treasury yields support long-duration valuations, but increased scrutiny of AI infrastructure and data-center development introduces a new policy risk just as investors were beginning to buy the semiconductor correction. AMD’s results provide an important counterpoint by showing that underlying AI demand remains exceptionally strong even as the political and financing environment becomes less accommodating.
Company-Specific News by GICS Sector
Information Technology
- AMD (+3.65%) — AMD is up roughly 7% premarket after forecasting more than 80% revenue growth in 2027, above analyst expectations near 77%. Third-quarter Data Center revenue surged 97% to $8.55 billion, exceeding estimates and providing evidence that AI infrastructure demand is broadening beyond a single accelerator supplier. The results are particularly important after recent concerns that AI capital spending is outrunning economic returns: AMD is showing that demand at the chip-supplier level remains extremely strong.
- FSLR (+2.11%) — First Solar is up roughly 8% premarket following the Democratic congressional sweep. Clean-energy stocks are being repriced for a potentially less hostile legislative and oversight environment, although President Trump’s veto authority limits the near-term scope for major federal policy changes. First Solar remains particularly sensitive to domestic manufacturing incentives, tariffs and federal energy policy.
- QCOM (+1.45%) — Qualcomm reports fiscal fourth-quarter results after today’s close, with its conference call scheduled for 4:45 p.m. ET. The report should provide another read on whether AI semiconductor demand is broadening into edge computing and data centers while also testing smartphone demand and Qualcomm’s efforts to reduce its dependence on handset revenue.
Consumer Discretionary
- TSLA (-1.32%) — Tesla is down roughly 4% premarket following the election result as investors reassess the policy and regulatory outlook under a Democratic-controlled Congress. The reaction contrasts with the broader futures recovery and suggests that companies with unusually high sensitivity to Washington policy may continue to trade separately from the underlying economic cycle.
- MCD (-0.98%) — McDonald’s reports before the open, with consumer traffic, value offerings and pricing likely to receive heightened attention. Separately, Democratic lawmakers have asked the company for details regarding its algorithmic menu-pricing tools, including whether customer data are used and how pricing recommendations are communicated to franchisees. The inquiry becomes more relevant following Tuesday’s change in congressional control.
Industrials
- UBER (-0.16%) — Uber reports third-quarter results this morning, with its earnings call scheduled for 8:00 a.m. ET. Mobility demand, delivery growth and margins remain the near-term earnings focus, while autonomous-driving investment and regulatory exposure provide longer-term strategic considerations. Uber remains classified in the S&P 500 Industrials sector under GICS.
Health Care
- CVS (+3.28%) — CVS Health reports before the open after gaining strongly Tuesday. The company is also planning to separate into two publicly traded businesses in 2028, splitting its insurance and pharmacy-benefit operations from the retail pharmacy business. Today’s results will be watched for medical-cost trends and performance at Aetna, but the proposed restructuring could increasingly dominate the longer-term valuation discussion.
