April 22, 2025
S&P futures are up 0.9% in early Tuesday trading, rebounding from Monday’s broad selloff that saw the S&P 500 fall for the third time in four sessions and the Nasdaq drop for a fourth straight day. Over 90% of S&P 500 constituents closed lower on Monday amid thin liquidity. Asian markets finished mixed overnight, with Hong Kong outperforming and Taiwan lagging. European markets are modestly lower (~0.2%) following their return from holiday. In macro markets, Treasuries are mixed with a flatter curve, the dollar is up 0.1%, gold is up 1.3%, Bitcoin futures are higher by 1.4%, and WTI crude is up 1.7%.
Today’s bounce lacks a clear catalyst but follows Monday’s liquidity-driven downside. The dominant macro theme remains Fed independence, as President Trump continues to publicly pressure Chair Powell to cut rates. While some observers believe Trump may not attempt to remove Powell, his attacks are seen as laying the groundwork to shift blame for any economic slowdown tied to trade turmoil. These comments have fed into broader “sell America” concerns, driven by Trump 2.0 policy uncertainty and ongoing doubts about executing multiple trade deals in a tight 90-day window.
Today’s calendar features: Richmond Fed manufacturing and business conditions, a heavy slate of Fedspeak (Jefferson, Harker, Kashkari, Barkin, Kugler), and a $69B 2-year Treasury auction. The macro pace picks up further Wednesday with flash PMIs, the Fed’s Beige Book, and more Fed commentary. Thursday brings durable goods orders, jobless claims, existing home sales, and a $44B 7-year Treasury sale. Friday wraps with the final April University of Michigan sentiment data. Trade headlines also expected to pick up with the IMF and G20 meetings underway in Washington.
Notable Movers:
- WRB: Premium growth ahead of expectations; combined ratio slightly better.
- MEDP: Missed on Q1 bookings.
- WAL: Missed on PPNR due to softer fee income, though reaffirmed key 2025 guidance.
- ZION: Weaker core PPNR; pressured by lower fees and higher expenses.
- HXL: Missed on Q1, cut 2025 guidance; cited wide-body aircraft drag, tariff risks not included in forecast.
- CALX: Up sharply on Q1 beat, strong Q2 guide, $100M buyback increase; highlighted BXP customer traction.
U.S. equities finished lower to start the week on Monday with the Dow (2.48%), S&P 500 (2.36%), Nasdaq (2.55%), Russell 2000 (2.14%) all down > 2% amid broad risk-off sentiment. While losses were trimmed slightly into the close, the S&P 500 posted its third drop in four sessions, and the Nasdaq extended its losing streak to four days. Breadth was broadly negative with all sectors lower, though equal-weighted S&P outperformed the cap-weighted index by ~60 bp thanks to pronounced underperformance in big tech.
Markets were dominated by concerns about Federal Reserve independence as political pressure from the Trump administration intensified. Trump reiterated his desire for rate cuts and again publicly attacked Chair Powell, stoking fears over U.S. monetary policy credibility. Economic advisor Kevin Hassett confirmed the administration is still exploring legal options for removing Powell. This weighed heavily on the U.S. dollar, which dropped to its lowest level since April 2022, while Treasury yields saw a steepening curve with 30-year yields up 12 bp.
Meanwhile, trade war concerns remained front and center, particularly regarding U.S.–China relations. Reports indicated China has sharply reduced imports of U.S. commodities, including LNG, corn, wheat, and cotton, while state-backed Chinese funds are backing away from U.S. private equity. Mexican President Sheinbaum said no final agreement was reached in talks with Trump, while ongoing concerns about the broader geopolitical trajectory — and potential Cold War dynamics — added to market unease. Corporate-level fallout from tariffs was also increasingly cited.
There were no major economic releases today, but Fed commentary stayed in focus. Chicago Fed President Goolsbee said long-run inflation expectations remain anchored, though short-run expectations are rising. He reiterated that the Fed sees rates moving lower over a 12–18 month horizon. The week remains relatively light on macro data, with flash PMIs due Wednesday and final University of Michigan sentiment on Friday.
GICS Sector News
Information Technology (–2.72%)
- NVDA (–4.5%): Pressured after reports Huawei is set to mass launch its 910C AI chip in China, seen as a competitor to NVDA’s H100.
- CRM (–4.5%): Downgraded to underperform at DA Davidson. Analysts cited declining organic growth outside of AI/data cloud and underinvestment in Salesforce’s core business.
- INTC (–1.6%): TSMC stated it’s not in JV talks with INTC for tech licensing, weighing modestly on sentiment.
Consumer Discretionary (–2.86%)
- TSLA (–5.8%): Reuters reported delays in the launch of its affordable Model Y variant in the U.S., potentially until early 2026; also slowing Cybertruck production.
- AMZN (–3.1%): Downgraded at Raymond James due to uneven macro, tariff concerns, and increasing capital intensity. Analysts remain long-term positive on AI but flagged near-term monetization risk.
- F (–2.1%): Reportedly paused shipments of several models (including the Mustang and Bronco) to China.
- WWW (+6.2%): Upgraded to Outperform at Baird on valuation, improving wholesale conditions, and limited exposure to tariffs.
Communication Services (–2.21%)
- GOOGL (–1.4%): DOJ pushes to force divestiture of Chrome browser following a second antitrust ruling related to its ad tech dominance.
- NFLX (+1.5%): Q1 results modestly beat on EPS and revenue; reaffirmed FY guidance and said it’s not seeing a material consumer pullback despite tariffs. Streaming ad business showing traction.
Financials (–2.15%)
- DFS (+3.6%): Gained after COF received final regulatory approval for their acquisition. Deal is expected to close in mid-May.
- FIS (+2.4%): Upgraded to Buy at TD Cowen on improved business focus post-Worldpay divestiture.
- CMA (flat): Beat on NII and NIM, but lowered FY25 guidance for NII, fees, and loan growth, citing a more cautious macro backdrop.
Healthcare (–2.13%)
- UHS (–10.2%): Led sector declines after reports of potential GOP Medicaid spending cuts, raising concerns over reimbursement pressure for hospitals.
- LLY (+1.5%): Announced U.S. production of its new GLP-1 weight loss pill for global distribution.
Industrials (–2.26%)
- BA (–2.4%): Boeing reportedly flying jets back to the U.S. after Chinese airlines refused deliveries amid trade tensions.
Consumer Staples (–1.34%)
- PEP (–0.8%): Reportedly disadvantaged relative to KO in trade war due to its concentrate production in Ireland.
Energy (–2.52%)
- Broadly lower as crude oil dropped 3.4%. Pressures came from growing concerns about global demand and the impact of trade disruptions on commodity flows.
- Reports suggest China has sharply curtailed U.S. energy imports including LNG, compounding sector sentiment.
Real Estate (–2.08%)
- Sector was among the better relative performers, benefiting from falling long-term yields earlier in the day before late-day reversal.
Utilities (–2.40%)
- Defensive names sold off along with the broader market; rising long-term rates contributed to pressure across yield-sensitive assets.
Eco Data Releases | Tuesday April 22nd, 2025
S&P 500 Constituent Earnings Announcements | Tuesday April 22nd, 2025
Data sourced from FactSet Research Systems Inc.
