May 30, 2025
S&P futures dipped 0.1% early Friday after US equities closed higher on Thursday. Stocks are on track for strong weekly gains, led by big tech, semiconductors, financials, travel & leisure, and biotech. Asian markets were mostly lower overnight, with Japan and Hong Kong down over 1%, while European markets rose ~0.4%. Treasuries were steady to slightly weaker at the long end. The dollar index rose 0.3%, Bitcoin futures fell 0.6%, gold dropped 0.6%, and WTI crude rose 0.8%.
Macro Highlights
- Trade: The White House is considering alternative legal authorizations for tariffs as negotiations with China stall. Non-tariff barriers, such as the Section 899 digital services tax measure, are also under scrutiny.
- Economic Data: April’s personal income and spending report, including headline and core PCE inflation, is expected today. Core PCE inflation is forecast to rise 0.1% m/m, with y/y growth easing to 2.5%. May’s final University of Michigan consumer sentiment and inflation expectations are also due.
- Looking Ahead: Next week’s key data includes ISM manufacturing, JOLTS, ISM services, and nonfarm payrolls, along with Powell’s speech on Monday.
Corporate Earnings Takeaways
- COST: Fiscal Q3 in line.
- DELL: Boosted by strong AI server demand.
- MRVL: Beat expectations; Data Center and Q2 guidance steady.
- ZS: Beat and raised guidance, overcoming broader macro uncertainty.
- MCHP: Positive preannouncement for June quarter, citing confidence in recovery.
- ULTA: Beat on comps, margins, and EPS; raised FY guidance.
- NTAP: Weighed down by softer Q1 guidance.
- COO: Q2 exceeded expectations, but FY organic growth guidance lowered.
- GAP: Q1 beat, but tariff headwind concerns linger.
- ESTC: Hit by softer FY26 sales guidance.
- AEO: Guided Q2 below expectations after pulling FY guidance earlier
US equities ended higher on Thursday, with the Dow gaining 0.28%, the S&P 500 up 0.40%, the Nasdaq climbing 0.39%, and the Russell 2000 advancing 0.34%. Treasury yields fell 5-6 bps across the curve, reversing earlier weakness, following a well-received $44B 7-year Treasury auction. The dollar index dropped 0.5%, gold rose 0.6%, and WTI crude declined 1.5%. Bitcoin futures also slipped, down 1.1%.
The second reading of Q1 GDP was revised to show a 0.2% contraction SAAR, slightly better than the initial 0.3% decline. While upward revisions to investment helped, consumer spending was weaker than expected. Core PCE Price Index growth was 3.4%, just below consensus. Initial jobless claims rose to 240K (consensus: 226K), and continuing claims hit 1,919K, the highest level since November 2021. Pending home sales for April fell 6.3% m/m, missing expectations for a 1% decline.
Trade uncertainty persisted as the US Court of International Trade struck down Trump-era tariffs, only for a federal appeals court to issue a stay, allowing the tariffs to remain temporarily. The Biden administration signaled its intent to appeal and discussed alternative measures to enforce tariffs. Trade talks with international partners are ongoing, though the legal uncertainty could prolong negotiations.
Sector Performance Recap & Stock Highlights
- Outperformers: Real Estate (+0.95%), Healthcare (+0.74%), Utilities (+0.69%), Energy (+0.67%), Tech (+0.59%), Financials (+0.49%).
- Underperformers: Communication Services (-0.35%), Industrials (+0.08%), Consumer Discretionary (+0.21%), Consumer Staples (+0.27%), Materials (+0.30%).
Information Technology
- NVIDIA (NVDA): Revenue and guidance beat expectations despite $8B in lost China sales. Highlighted strong demand for Blackwell GPUs and reasoning AI. (+3.2%)
- Synopsys (SNPS): Suspended FY guidance following new US export restrictions to China. (-1.6%)
- Salesforce (CRM): Q1 EPS and revenue beat; raised FY guidance but flagged concerns over subscription growth. (-3.3%)
- Pure Storage (PSTG): Beat Q1 estimates; reaffirmed FY guidance but flagged margin pressures. (-2.7%)
Communication Services
- Live Nation (LYV): Reports of a large block trade weighed on the stock. (-2.9%)
- C3.ai (AI): Q4 beat on EPS, revenue, and guidance; partnership momentum highlighted. (+20.8%)
Healthcare
- Veeva Systems (VEEV): Strong Q1 results driven by Commercial strength; raised FY guidance. (+19.0%)
- Agilent Technologies (A): Q2 beat on revenue and EPS; FY25 revenue guidance raised. (+2.2%)
Consumer Discretionary
- e.l.f. Beauty (ELF): Q4 results beat expectations; announced a $1B acquisition. (+23.6%)
- Best Buy (BBY): Missed revenue estimates; cut FY guidance due to tariff impacts. (-7.3%)
- Caleres (CAL): Weak Q1 results led to suspended guidance. (-18.3%)
- Movado Group (MOV): Missed Q1 estimates; provided no FY guidance. (-7.0%)
Industrials
- Boeing (BA): CEO projected increased 737 MAX output; Chinese deliveries to resume soon. (+3.3%)
- United Airlines (UAL): Partnered with JetBlue for expanded services at JFK and Newark. (+1.4%)
Energy
- Crude oil inventories fell by 2.8M barrels last week, while wildfires in Alberta threatened about 4% of Canada’s crude output.
Financials
- Goldman Sachs’ president noted heightened bond investor concerns over US government debt.
Eco Data Releases | Friday May 30th, 2025
S&P 500 Constituent Earnings Announcements | Friday May 30th, 2025
Data sourced from FactSet Research Systems Inc.
