June 4, 2025
S&P futures are up 0.2% in early Wednesday trading following Tuesday’s broad rally led by small caps, AI/semis, dollar stores, energy, and crowded shorts. The S&P is now up nearly 20% from its post–Liberation Day low. Asian markets were higher overnight, led by South Korea after a decisive presidential election. Europe is up ~0.6%. Treasuries are flat to slightly weaker, with 30-year yields just below 5%. The dollar index is down 0.1%, gold is up 0.3%, Bitcoin futures down 0.4%, and WTI crude off 0.2%.
Trade remains in focus as markets await confirmation of a Trump-Xi call later this week. Trump posted late Tuesday that Xi is “extremely hard to make a deal with,” underscoring tensions over rare-earth exports and U.S. tech controls. Meanwhile, GOP reconciliation bill negotiations continue in the Senate amid deficit concerns, though passage is still expected.
Today’s economic data includes May ADP private payrolls (110K est.) and ISM Services (52.1 est.), followed by the Fed’s Beige Book this afternoon. Fed speakers Bostic and Cook are also on the docket. Trump will meet Senate Finance Committee members to discuss tax provisions in the reconciliation bill. Looking ahead: Thursday brings trade balance, jobless claims, and Q1 productivity data; Friday’s NFP report is expected to show a 125K job gain and 4.2% unemployment.
Corporate Headlines:
- WFC is up on news the Fed formally lifted its asset cap imposed since 2018.
- BLK was removed from Texas’ restricted list after scaling back ESG involvement.
- CRWD posted solid Q1 results, but shares slipped on slightly soft Q2 and FY revenue guidance.
- HPE delivered a Q2 beat and strong Q3 outlook, though full-year guidance was mixed.
- GWRE rallied on strong Q3 results and upwardly revised FY guidance amid cloud deal momentum.
- HQY beat and raised; investors welcomed updates on fraud prevention.
- LITE rose on a positive Q4 preannouncement.
- ASAN dropped after a miss on billings and lowered guidance.
- POST to acquire 8th Avenue Food & Provisions for ~$880M ne
U.S. equities closed higher for a second straight session on Tuesday (Dow +0.51%, S&P 500 +0.58%, Nasdaq +0.81%, Russell 2000 +1.59%), with the S&P 500 and Nasdaq rebounding from early losses. Gains were supported by strength in semiconductors, AI names, small caps, and cyclicals, while rate-sensitive and defensive sectors lagged. Broader risk appetite remains underpinned by a resilient jobs backdrop, upbeat AI momentum, and expectations for a measured policy stance from the Fed.
Treasuries ended mostly weaker with some curve flattening, reversing early gains driven by strong demand at Japan’s 10-year JGB auction. The dollar index rose 0.6%, gold fell 0.6%, Bitcoin futures rose 1.7%, and WTI crude gained 1.4% amid tighter supply dynamics.
Markets continue to watch for Friday’s May nonfarm payrolls report (125K expected; unemployment at 4.2%) and a possible Trump-Xi call, now expected Friday but still unconfirmed. That call follows renewed U.S.-China trade tension, as both sides accuse each other of walking back last month’s tariff agreement.
Economic data was mixed. April JOLTS job openings came in at 7.391M, ahead of the 7.100M consensus, while the quit rate edged down to 2.0%. Factory orders missed, falling 3.7% m/m—the largest drop since January 2024—reflecting a reversal in tariff-driven inventory pulls. Orders ex-transportation also declined 0.5%.
Fedspeak was cautious. Governor Cook flagged stagflation risks and said firms may be more willing to raise prices amid trade friction. Chicago Fed President Goolsbee echoed concerns that tariffs could push the economy toward a stagflationary path. Atlanta’s Bostic said he sees only one cut in 2025, urging patience while reiterating no signs of imminent recession.
S&P 500 Sector Performance:
Outperformers: Technology (+1.48%), Energy (+1.11%), Materials (+0.97%), Industrials (+0.76%)
Underperformers: Communication Services (-0.75%), Real Estate (-0.39%), Consumer Staples (-0.15%)
Modest gains: Financials (+0.18%), Healthcare (+0.19%), Utilities (+0.22%), Consumer Discretionary (+0.31%)
Company Highlights
Technology
NVDA led the AI/semiconductor rally following upbeat demand commentary from TSMC’s CEO.
CRDO +14.8% – Beat on Q4 EPS and revenue; strong Q1 guidance driven by optical demand, with no significant tariff risks flagged.
FDS -4.8% – FactSet fell after announcing CEO Phil Snow will retire in September; Sanoke Viswanathan will succeed him.
SNOW – Confirmed acquisition of Crunchy Data to expand open-source database capabilities.
HPE, CRWD – Reported after the close.
Consumer Discretionary
DG +15.9% – Dollar General surged after beating on Q1 EPS and comps, raising FY guidance; company cited successful tariff mitigation and margin improvement from inventory control.
VSCO -2.7% – Victoria’s Secret preannounced Q1 results ahead of guidance but delayed full release due to a cybersecurity breach, which may impact future results.
TSLA (unchanged) – Weak May sales in Europe and Sweden reported; sales now down five straight months in the region.
LULU, DOCU, FIVE, MDB – Set to report Thursday and Wednesday, respectively.
Industrials
FERG +17.2% – Ferguson beat across the board and raised guidance, driven by 5% organic U.S. growth and strong execution.
OSK +4.1% – Oshkosh upgraded to Buy at Truist citing valuation and improved order visibility.
VNOM + – Viper Energy to acquire STR +15.3% in an all-stock deal valued over $4B.
DIS – Reportedly laying off several hundred employees globally across film, TV, and corporate functions.
Energy
STR +15.3% – Gained on M&A deal with VNOM.
CEG – Signed long-term nuclear power deal with META, reportedly priced below Microsoft’s recent Three Mile Island contract.
CRWD, AVGO – AVGO reports Thursday; focus remains on AI-driven demand.
Financials
XYZ +2.8% – Block, Inc. upgraded at Evercore ISI as lending concerns eased; analysts noted stable consumer spending trends.
Healthcare
SIG +12.5% – Signet Jewelers beat on Q1 metrics and raised full-year guidance, including expected tariff effects.
HIMS – Announced acquisition of European digital health firm ZAVA to expand presence abroad.
CVS – Said it will invest $20B over 10 years to upgrade its tech-enabled consumer healthcare platform.
Communication Services
PINS +3.8% – Upgraded to Overweight at JPMorgan citing improved engagement, monetization, and AI-driven ad strategy.
BMBL -6.5% – Downgraded at JPMorgan due to valuation and expected revenue and user declines; flagged negative download trends.
SATS -11.3% – EchoStar declined after disclosing it will not make $183M in interest payments on DISH DBS notes, citing FCC review.
Eco Data Releases | Wednesday June 4th, 2025
S&P 500 Constituent Earnings Announcements | Wednesday June 4th, 2025
Data sourced from FactSet Research Systems Inc.
