June 16, 2025
S&P futures rose 0.4% Monday morning after U.S. equities sold off Friday, ending last week lower across all major indexes. Travel & leisure, retail/apparel, and banks led declines, while energy, ag chemicals, semis, builders, and managed care outperformed. Crowded shorts also gained. Asian markets traded mostly higher with South Korea and Japan leading. Europe up ~0.5%. Treasuries weaker, yields up 2–3 bp. Dollar index up 0.1%. Gold down 0.5%. Bitcoin futures rose 2.1%. WTI crude dipped 0.4% after last week’s 13% surge.
Markets are rebounding as geopolitical risks appear contained for now. Despite ongoing Israel-Iran exchanges, there’s relief that Iranian oil infrastructure and U.S. assets have largely been spared, and civilian casualties remain limited. Iran has not threatened to block the Strait of Hormuz, seen as a worst-case risk. The equity market’s tendency to discount geopolitics is also a stabilizing factor. G7 meetings are not expected to yield major trade developments. On fiscal policy, focus this week is on Senate reconciliation provisions under the Byrd Rule. The White House pause on immigration raids in farm and hospitality sectors is viewed positively, though Trump is calling for tougher enforcement in blue states. Chinese May activity data were mixed, but stronger-than-expected retail sales caught attention.
The U.S. economic calendar is light Monday with just the Empire State manufacturing survey (consensus: -6.3). Tuesday brings retail sales, industrial production, import prices, and the NAHB housing index. Wednesday features housing data, weekly claims, the FOMC decision, updated SEP, and Powell’s press conference. Markets close Thursday for Juneteenth, with the Philly Fed index wrapping up the week Friday.
Corporate Highlights
- Google (GOOGL): Weekend feature emphasized AI’s impact on search but noted Google is cushioned by its cloud, autonomous, and AI initiatives.
- U.S. Steel (X): Shares up after Nippon Steel resolved national security concerns with the White House, clearing the way for a $14B+ merger.
- EchoStar (SATS): Rallied on reports Trump is pushing a resolution in the company’s spectrum license dispute with the FTC.
- PDD Holdings (PDD): Its Temu platform resumed direct U.S. shipments after recent U.S.-China trade talks.
- Victoria’s Secret (VSCO): Targeted by Barington Capital, which has taken a stake and plans to push for board and strategic changes
U.S. equities ended broadly lower on Friday, with the S&P 500 and Nasdaq snapping three-week winning streaks. The market moved sharply risk-off in response to a major escalation in Middle East tensions after Israel launched airstrikes on Iranian nuclear and military sites, prompting reports of a retaliatory drone and missile strike by Iran. The conflict, dubbed “Operation Rising Lion,” significantly raised fears of a prolonged regional confrontation, triggering a spike in oil prices and pressuring risk assets.
WTI crude jumped 7.3% (and nearly 9% intraday), marking its biggest single-day rally in five years. Analysts highlighted risks of Iranian retaliation potentially targeting oil infrastructure or shipping through the Strait of Hormuz, though a full-scale disruption remains unlikely. The oil surge added to inflation concerns, and Treasuries weakened across the curve, with yields up 6–7 bp at the long end. The dollar gained 0.2%, gold rose 1.5% to over $3,450/oz, and Bitcoin futures declined 1.5%.
Meanwhile, macro data surprised to the upside. The University of Michigan’s preliminary June consumer sentiment rose to 60.5, well above the 53.0 consensus and ending a four-month decline. Both current conditions and expectations improved broadly across demographics, though downside risks to the economy remain prevalent. Year-ahead inflation expectations dropped sharply to 5.1% from 6.6%, and five-year expectations edged down to 4.1%.
Looking ahead, markets will turn to Tuesday’s retail sales data and the June FOMC meeting on Wednesday, which includes an updated Summary of Economic Projections.
S&P 500 Sector Performance
- Outperformers: Energy (+1.72%), Real Estate (+0.98%), Industrials (+0.87%), Communication Services (+0.86%), Consumer Discretionary (+0.74%), Utilities (+0.62%), Healthcare (+0.54%)
- Underperformers: Financials (–2.06%), Information Technology (–1.50%), Materials (–1.20%), Consumer Staples (–1.15%)
Information Technology
- Adobe (ADBE) fell 5.3% despite a Q2 beat and slight FY guide raise. Investors focused on the unchanged outlook for Digital Media, even as AI revenue tracks ahead of its $250M target.
- Apple (AAPL) reportedly delayed a major Siri update to spring 2026.
- Meta Platforms (META) confirmed a stake in Scale AI and will bring in its founder as part of a broader AI initiative.
Consumer Discretionary
- Tesla (TSLA) gained 1.9% after reports the White House may ease rules on autonomous vehicle deployment, potentially benefiting its robotaxi plans.
- RH (Restoration Hardware) surged 6.9% after Q1 earnings and operating margin beat. Guidance was reaffirmed despite tariff pressures and increased discounts.
- Whirlpool (WHR) rose 3.1% after a BofA upgrade, citing benefits from Section 232 tariffs and a stronger U.S. margin profile.
Industrials
- Archer Aviation (ACHR) dropped 14.8% after announcing a 85M share offering at $10/share, following an executive order supporting electric air taxis.
- United States Steel (X) declined 2.8% amid reports that Nippon Steel seeks management autonomy in its acquisition, clashing with Trump’s assertion that the U.S. would have “total control.”
Financials
- Visa (V) fell 5% and Mastercard (MA) also traded lower after reports that Amazon and Walmart are exploring launching their own stablecoins, potentially threatening interchange revenue.
- Cadre Holdings (CDRE) slid 4.8% following a BofA downgrade citing stalled M&A growth and weaker pricing power.
Materials
- Sherwin-Williams (SHW) declined 5.7% after Citi downgraded the stock, citing a lack of housing tailwinds.
- MP Materials (MP) was among Thursday’s top gainers after reports of potential DPA support for rare earths, though it underperformed Friday in broader materials weakness.
Energy
- Darling Ingredients (DAR) jumped 9.2% following reports that the EPA plans an 8% increase in biofuel blending requirements, seen as a tailwind for renewable fuel producers.
Healthcare
- Thermo Fisher (TMO) was reportedly exploring a $4B divestiture of part of its diagnostics business.
- Kenvue (KVUE) is evaluating the sale of several health and beauty brands as part of a portfolio reshaping effort.
Eco Data Releases | Monday June 16th, 2025
S&P 500 Constituent Earnings Announcements | Monday June 16th, 2025
No constituents reporting today
Data sourced from FactSet Research Systems Inc.
