June 18, 2025
S&P futures are up 0.3% Wednesday morning following Tuesday’s broad equity weakness, which saw losses in solar, airlines, casinos, apparel, crypto, machinery, and healthcare. Outperformers included energy, aerospace & defense, and select staples. Treasuries are slightly firmer, yields down 1–2 bp. The dollar is off 0.2%, gold down 0.3%, Bitcoin futures down 0.2%, and WTI crude off 0.2% after jumping more than 4% Tuesday.
Markets are in wait-and-see mode amid continued uncertainty around Middle East tensions and the upcoming FOMC announcement. No major developments overnight following Trump’s hawkish Tuesday comments, with speculation persisting over potential U.S. military involvement. The Fed is expected to hold rates steady and emphasize macro uncertainty, though the dot plot’s potential shift from two to one 2025 rate cuts remains a key focus. Elsewhere, the G7 concluded without trade breakthroughs, and reconciliation bill progress looks unlikely by July 4. Meanwhile, a quick reversal on immigration enforcement reprieves is raising economic concerns, while reports suggest big banks could receive a 150 bp cut to the eSLR capital buffer.
On the data front, May housing starts, building permits, and jobless claims are due this morning. The FOMC decision, SEP update, and Powell’s press conference follow this afternoon. U.S. markets are closed Thursday for Juneteenth, with June’s Philly Fed manufacturing survey out Friday.
Corporate headlines were sparse:
- Meta is offering large bonuses to lure OpenAI staff for its internal AI push.
- Waymo (Alphabet) is expanding robotaxi service in San Francisco and Silicon Valley.
- Corteva raised 1H EBITDA growth guidance to mid- to high-single digits.
- Plains All American agreed to sell most of its NGL business to Canada’s Keyera for $3.75B.
- Hasbro is cutting 3% of its workforce (~150 jobs) due to tariff-related cost pressures.
- La-Z-Boy reported mixed Q4 results; sales beat, but EPS missed on margins and taxes.
- Biomea Fusion plunged on disappointing weight-loss drug study results.
U.S. equities ended lower on Tuesday (Dow –0.70%, S&P 500 –0.84%, Nasdaq –0.91%, Russell 2000 –1.04%), though finished off session lows, as renewed Middle East tensions and softer economic data weighed on sentiment. Oil surged 4.3% amid geopolitical risks, supporting energy shares. Treasuries rallied with the curve bull flattening; long-end yields fell ~8 bp. The dollar index gained 0.8%. Gold fell 0.3%, and Bitcoin futures dropped 3.3%.
Geopolitical concerns intensified after President Trump declared the U.S. has “total control” over Iranian airspace, demanding Iran’s “unconditional surrender.” Media reports suggested Trump is considering authorizing U.S. aircraft support for Israeli strikes on Iran’s Fordo nuclear facility. Despite heightened rhetoric, there has been no disruption to oil exports.
On the policy front, market focus remains on the GOP reconciliation bill revisions and hawkish trade headlines involving the EU and Japan. Meanwhile, corporate buyback blackouts and quarter-end rebalancing are contributing to market volatility.
The U.S. economic calendar added to the cautious tone. May retail sales fell 0.9% m/m, worse than the expected –0.7% decline, while the core control group rose 0.4%, in line with estimates. Industrial production unexpectedly declined 0.2% m/m. The NAHB housing market index dropped to 32, its third-lowest level since 2012, citing sidelined buyers. Looking ahead, markets await Wednesday’s housing data and the June FOMC decision, with debate focused on whether the Fed’s updated dot plot will shift from two to one 2025 rate cuts. U.S. markets will be closed Thursday for Juneteenth.
Company-Specific News by GICS Sector:
Information Technology
- Jabil (JBL) rose 8.9% after FQ3 EPS and revenue topped estimates. Management cited strength in cloud, data center architecture, and capital equipment. AI-driven demand in Intelligent Infrastructure is accelerating, and guidance came in ahead of consensus.
- Apple supplier Jabil also raised its annual forecast, noting continued strong data center demand.
Communication Services
- Reddit (RDDT) gained 6.1% after unveiling new AI tools including “Reddit Insights” and “Conversation Summary Add-ons.”
- Meta Platforms (META) was in focus as Bloomberg reported deeper expansion into AI-generated ads. CNBC noted upcoming smart glasses partnerships with Oakley and Prada.
- T-Mobile (TMUS) fell 4.1% after SoftBank sold 21.5M shares at $224 per share.
Consumer Discretionary
- Amazon (AMZN) reiterated that its Prime Day will run July 8–11, expanding to four days. CEO Jassy noted AI will likely reduce headcount over the next few years.
- Tesla (TSLA) declined 3.9% following reports it will pause production of the Cybertruck and Model Y lines at its Austin plant during the July 4 week—its third such pause this year.
- JetBlue (JBLU) dropped 7.9% as CNBC reported the airline is pursuing new cost cuts and reducing flights amid soft travel demand. Management admitted the path to profitability may take longer than previously hoped.
Health Care
- Verve Therapeutics (VERV) soared 81.5% after agreeing to be acquired by Eli Lilly (LLY) for $10.50/share upfront (~$1B), with a $3/share CVR contingent on development milestones.
- Surgery Partners (SGRY) fell 12.3% after failing to reach a buyout agreement with Bain Capital.
- TSLA’s health-related technology efforts were not a focus, despite ongoing factory production disruptions.
Industrials
- First Solar (FSLR) plunged 17.9% after Senate budget drafts confirmed the phase-out of solar and wind energy credits by 2028.
- Wiley (WLY) rose 10% on a strong Q4 report and upbeat FY guidance, driven by growth in research and AI licensing, along with cost control.
- American Woodmark (AMWD) fell 1.8% after announcing its CFO is stepping down; CEO will serve as interim CFO.
Energy
- Crude prices surged on geopolitical risks. The sector gained 1.03%, with oil majors and refiners broadly higher.
- Media reported a tanker collision near the Strait of Hormuz, fueling further concerns about energy flows.
Real Estate
- The sector rose 0.41% despite the drop in the NAHB housing market index. The data pointed to fading buyer interest, but lower yields supported real estate equities.
Financials
- Soft retail sales and geopolitical risks dampened the outlook for banks and asset managers, though the sector edged up 0.61%. No notable stock-specific headlines.
Consumer Staples
- Kraft Heinz announced plans to remove artificial colors from Jell-O, Kool-Aid, and other brands by 2027.
Utilities and Materials
- Both sectors were modest gainers on the day, up 0.81% and 0.79%, respectively, helped by defensive positioning and firming commodity prices.
- Steel and aluminum names benefited from safe-haven rotation and higher oil, with support from A&D spending expectations.
Eco Data Releases | Wednesday June 18th, 2025
S&P 500 Constituent Earnings Announcements | Wednesday June 18th, 2025
No constituents report today
Data sourced from FactSet Research Systems Inc.
