July 7, 2025
S&P futures -0.3% after last week’s strong gains and fresh record highs for the S&P 500 and Nasdaq. Markets are slightly lower Monday morning as investors return from the holiday-shortened week. Despite ongoing tariff-related headlines, the broader market tone remains relatively calm, with sentiment helped by expectations that trade risks are more manageable than in previous cycles. Treasury yields are mixed with some curve steepening, while the dollar is stronger, especially versus the yen. Gold is down 0.8%, Bitcoin futures off 1.1%, and WTI crude is up 0.2% even after OPEC+ surprised with a larger-than-expected August production hike.
The focus today is squarely on trade. Treasury Secretary Bessent said Sunday that multiple trade deals may be announced ahead of the July 9 reciprocal tariff pause deadline. For countries without agreements, letters will be delivered starting noon ET today, warning that tariff rates will revert to April 2 levels if deals aren’t reached by August 1. Trump confirmed the plan and added that countries aligning with BRICS “anti-American” policies could face an additional 10% tariff. Despite these threats, investors appear to be adjusting to the pace and unpredictability of tariff developments.
There’s little else on the domestic calendar today—no economic data releases or Fedspeak—and this week is expected to be relatively quiet aside from Wednesday’s release of the June FOMC minutes. On the global front, China-EU trade tensions escalated after Beijing barred EU companies from participating in medical device procurement tenders. In Europe, German industrial production was better than expected, while U.K. surveys showed hiring plans at a 13-year low. The week also brings a wave of Treasury supply, with $119B in auctions across 3-, 10-, and 30-year maturities.
Company-Specific Headlines
- TSLA: Shares lower after Trump criticized Musk for forming the “America Party”; also facing concerns about declining market share in China.
- AAPL: Appealing a €500M EU fine, calling it “unprecedented” and unlawful.
- AMZN and WMT: Kicking off competing discount events this week, according to FT.
- ORCL: Reportedly offering discounted cloud and database services to the U.S. government.
- WNS: Surged after Capgemini announced acquisition for $3.3B in cash.
Reprinted from July 3:
U.S. equities ended Thursday on a strong note (Dow +0.77%, S&P 500 +0.83%, Nasdaq +1.02%, Russell 2000 +1.02%) with broad-based gains as stocks closed near session highs ahead of the Independence Day holiday. The S&P 500 and Nasdaq notched fresh record closes, driven by strength in banks, semiconductors, software, and travel-related sectors. The session capped a solid week for equities, buoyed by policy clarity and improving macro sentiment.
The main focus was the final passage of President Trump’s “Big, Beautiful Bill”, which advanced through the House after intense overnight negotiations. House GOP leadership secured enough votes—despite Democratic delays—to send the $3.3T tax and spending bill to Trump’s desk for signing on July 4. The bill extends key elements of Trump’s 2017 tax cuts and includes modifications to the SALT deduction and federal spending limits. While markets welcomed the near-term fiscal clarity, analysts continued to highlight long-term debt and deficit concerns.
The labor market was in focus with June nonfarm payrolls coming in at 147K, above the 118K consensus. Private payrolls disappointed at +74K, while government-driven hiring bolstered the headline. The unemployment rate unexpectedly ticked down to 4.1%, though labor force participation declined. Average hourly earnings rose 0.2% m/m, cooler than expected, with y/y wage growth slowing to 3.7%. Initial jobless claims came in better than expected at 233K. Despite mixed signals, the data tempered expectations for a July Fed rate cut, with futures now pointing to a higher likelihood of a first cut in September.
Elsewhere, the ISM Services Index for June printed at 50.0, just below expectations. New orders returned to expansion, while the employment index fell back into contraction. Prices paid remained elevated. Respondents cited tariff-related uncertainty, affordability issues, and slow sales. May factory orders surged 8.2% month-over-month, driven by a large spike in aircraft orders.
On the trade front, markets continued to digest Trump’s Vietnam deal, which includes a 40% tariff on transshipped goods. China vowed retaliation if impacted and Treasury Secretary Bessent warned partners that tariff levels could revert to April’s harsher regime if negotiations stall. At the same time, the U.S. eased export restrictions on chip-design software, in alignment with Geneva trade commitments.
Company-Specific Highlights by GICS Sector
Information Technology (+1.29%)
- DDOG +14.9%: To be added to the S&P 500 on July 9, replacing Juniper Networks post-acquisition by HPE.
- CDNS +5.1%: Rose alongside SNPS after the U.S. lifted chip-design software export restrictions to China.
- OLO +13.6%: To be acquired by Thoma Bravo for $10.25/share, valuing the company at ~$2B.
Financials (+1.08%)
- VLY +3.4%: Upgraded to Overweight at Morgan Stanley, citing improved balance sheet, lower deposit costs, and better NIM outlook.
- HOOD -3.7%: Declined after OpenAI stated tokenized shares on Robinhood are not actual equity and that no such transfers were authorized.
Health Care (+0.11%)
- No major headlines; sector lagged broader market gains despite strength in insurers and managed care earlier in the session.
Industrials (+0.82%)
- Gains supported by strength in engineering & construction, aerospace & defense, though no notable individual stock moves highlighted.
Consumer Discretionary (+0.75%)
- Laggards included homebuilders, housing-related retail, and casual dining; strength in travel and leisure names supported the sector overall.
Communication Services (+0.61%)
- TRIP +16.7%: Jumped after Reuters reported Starboard Value built a 9%+ stake in the company.
Consumer Staples (+0.19%)
- FIZZ +4.6%: Beat on revenue with EPS in line; reported record net sales growth in Power+ and carbonated soft drink brands.
Energy (+0.25%)
- Sector underperformed as WTI crude fell 1.0% on profit-taking and mixed inventory data.
Utilities (+0.74%), Real Estate (+0.12%), Materials (+0.00%)
- All trailed the broader rally; no major stock-specific developments.
Eco Data Releases | Monday July 7th, 2025
No releases today
S&P 500 Constituent Earnings Announcements | Monday July 7th, 2025
No constituents report today
Data sourced from FactSet Research Systems Inc.
