S&P futures down 0.3% Tuesday morning after US equities ended higher Monday, led by energy, tech, and industrials, while financials and healthcare lagged. Asian markets were mixed, with Greater China retreating after a six-day rally, while South Korea outperformed. Japan was closed for a holiday. European markets were little changed. Treasuries weakened with curve steepening. Dollar index steady. Gold down 0.1%. Bitcoin futures up 0.7%. WTI crude rose 1.1% after Monday’s 2% gain.
Markets remain focused on Washington, where Trump signed 25% tariffs on all steel and aluminum imports, with reciprocal measures expected soon. The ongoing lack of GOP consensus on a reconciliation bill and heightened government shutdown risks are adding to policy uncertainty, contrasting with the post-election optimism that previously fueled market gains. Monetary policy remains in focus as Fed Chair Powell begins his semi-annual testimony, alongside comments from other Fed officials. The CPI report on Wednesday is expected to provide further insight into inflation trends, followed by PPI and initial jobless claims on Thursday. Treasury auctions, including $58B in 3-year notes today, $42B in 10-year notes Wednesday, and $25B in 30-year bonds Thursday, will also be closely watched. Meanwhile, the NFIB small business optimism index declined in January but remained above long-term averages, highlighting increased uncertainty and hiring challenges.
Energy & Industrials
- LUV-US: Appointed a new CFO.
- BP-US: Promised a “fundamental reset” following weak Q4 earnings and Elliott stake.
- PSX-US: Elliott built a $2.5B+ stake.
- ALAB-US: Beat earnings and guided above expectations.
Technology
- LSCC-US: Noted early signs of broader market improvement.
- ACLS-US: Declined on weak guidance, citing near-term cyclical digestion.
- USAMKR-US: Pressured after highlighting auto and industrial weakness and issuing lower guidance.
Consumer & Healthcare
- MTCH-US: CEO purchased ~$2M in shares.
- COTY-US: Latest beauty and cosmetics stock to disappoint.
- MEDP-US: Laggard despite a strong Q4 beat; FY25 guidance mixed.
Financials
- CINF-US: Beat expectations on a better combined ratio.
- SLQT-US: Surged on strong earnings, raised guidance, and a $350M strategic investment.
US equities ended higher Monday, reversing Friday’s losses. Major averages posted gains, led by big tech, industrial metals, software, homebuilders, energy, China tech, and QSRs (MCD-US). Laggards included banks, credit cards, investment banks, P&C insurance, online brokers (SCHW-US), exchanges, asset managers, life sciences (NIH funding restrictions), airlines, food, casinos, casual diners, travel/tourism, and apparel. Treasuries were mixed with curve steepening, following Friday’s rate increases. The dollar index rose 0.3%. Gold surged 1.6%, closing above $2,900/oz for the first time. Bitcoin futures gained 1.9%. WTI crude settled up 1.9%.
Market strength was supported by a rate reprieve at the short end of the curve and better-than-expected inflation data from the NY Fed consumer expectations survey. AI-linked names and semiconductors rebounded despite concerns around DeepSeek and AI capex. Bullish factors included a solid US macro backdrop, broadening earnings growth, strong retail and hedge fund buying, and improved sentiment. However, policy uncertainty remains a key overhang, with Trump’s 25% steel and aluminum tariffs now in effect and reciprocal tariff announcements expected midweek. The lack of GOP consensus on tax and budget policies, high concentration in top tech names, extended tech positioning, and a strong dollar were also noted as risks.
The NY Fed’s Survey of Consumer Expectations reported January inflation expectations unchanged at 3.0% for both the one-year and three-year horizons. However, respondents’ financial outlook deteriorated. Tuesday brings NFIB small business optimism, Fed Chair Powell’s testimony, and speeches from Cleveland Fed President Hammack, Fed Governor Bowman, and NY Fed President Williams. January CPI, Powell’s second testimony, and comments from Atlanta Fed President Bostic follow on Wednesday. Thursday includes PPI and initial claims, while Friday rounds out the week with retail sales, import/export prices, industrial production, and business inventories.
Sector and Company News
Information Technology
- monday.com (MNDY-US): +26.5% after Q4 EPS, operating income, and revenue beats; FY25 revenue guidance in line, but operating income and FCF lower.
- Mobileye (MBLY-US): +11.8% following news that Lyft will launch driverless trips using its technology in 2026; also upgraded to neutral from underperform at Bank of America.
- Semtech (SMTC-US): -31.0% after announcing that FY26 net sales from active copper cable (ACC) products may be below prior estimates due to server rack architecture changes.
- ON Semiconductor (ON-US): -8.2% after Q4 earnings and revenue misses, with Q1 guidance well below expectations.
Consumer Discretionary
- McDonald’s (MCD-US): +4.8% after Q4 EPS and revenue missed but comps surprised to the upside; guest count gains offset lower average check.
- Lyft (LYFT-US): +6.7% after announcing plans to launch robotaxis using MBLY-US technology in Dallas in 2026.
- Estée Lauder (EL-US): +5.7% after Director Paul Fribourg and CFO Akfil Shrivastava disclosed share purchases.
- Nike (NKE-US): Downgraded to neutral at Citi due to concerns over extended gross margin pressures.
Healthcare
- Axsome Therapeutics (AXSM-US): +20.2% after announcing a settlement resolving AUVELITY patent litigation.
- Incyte (INCY-US): -7.9% following mixed Q4 results; Jakafi and Opzelura revenues were ahead, but FY25 Opzelura guidance underwhelmed.
- Bio-Techne (TECH-US): -4.0% after NIH announced it will limit indirect cost payments for research grants to 15%, affecting academic/government research funding.
Industrials
- Cleveland-Cliffs (CLF-US): +17.9% on positive response to Trump’s 25% steel and aluminum tariffs.
- Rockwell Automation (ROK-US): +12.7% on better-than-expected FQ1 earnings, revenue in line, and strong cost-saving traction.
- Manhattan Associates (MANH-US): -11.6% after announcing CEO Eddie Capel will step down, to be replaced by Eric Clark.
Financials
- Charles Schwab (SCHW-US): -2.4% after TD Bank Group announced its intention to sell its entire 184.7M share stake in the company.
Energy & Materials
- BP (BP-US): +6.7% on news that activist investor Elliott Management has taken a stake and is pushing for performance improvements.
Other Notable Developments
- T-Mobile (TMUS-US): +3.9% after announcing the launch of satellite-to-cell service, powered by SpaceX’s Starlink, in July for $15/month.
- Shopify (SHOP-US): +2.1% after an upgrade to buy at Benchmark Company, citing potential upside from optimization of Shopify Audiences.
- Elon Musk-led Group: Reports indicate Musk is leading a $97B bid to acquire the nonprofit controlling OpenAI.
Eco Data Releases | Tuesday February 11th, 2025
S&P 500 Constituent Earnings Announcements | Tuesday February 11th, 2025
Data sourced from FactSet Research Systems Inc.
