Equities finished Monday mixed with the tech. heavy Nasdaq leading large caps higher to the tune of +65pbs, the S&P 500 eked out a gain of +.09 bps while the Dow sold off -49bps. Financials, and Consumer Sectors were off most as the sector profile is taking on shades of 2023 after a time out from February through April.
At the stock level PANW was a big miss late in the day as Fed Minutes and NVDA earnings loom later in the week. As of this writing futures are close to unchanged for Tuesday.
Eco Data Releases | Tuesday May 21st, 2024
| Date Time | Event | Survey | Actual | Prior | Revised | |
| 05/21/2024 08:30 | Philadelphia Fed Non-Manufacturing Activity | May | — | — | -12.4 | — |
S&P 500 Constituent Earnings Announcements by GICS Sector | Tuesday May 21st, 2024
LOW will be an interesting check on the consumer. The chart is not a pretty picture dure to the expectation that the consumer is getting close to tapping out beneath the burdens of higher costs for Financing, Goods and Services. LOW may offer a gauge of how resilient the consumer can be when rates come down marginally.
- LOW (200-day m.a. | Relative to S&P 500 )
- LOW is on the ropes. Already a technical sell, the stock is at support in both absolute and relative terms. A move above $240 on a strong beat would be a needed life-line.
Tactical Tuesday
As the Calendar moves through May, you will likely hear the old saw “Sell in May, Go Away!”. This was rooted in an observable pattern of weak returns historically during the summer months and explained by the summer vacation season. However, looking back at the monthly returns of the S&P 500, we can see in the table below that negative seasonal effects have primarily manifested in the August – October period over the past 8 years, with the other notably weak month being February. So, keep some beta on the table as the weather starts to heat up, and think about taking some risk off in August.
