US equities broke out of their 2-day holding pattern in a positive way with the Nasdaq pacing the major benchmarks gaining 75 bps while the S&P 500 picked up 48bps and the Dow lagged with a gain of 32 bps. It was a big day for small cap. Stocks with the Russell 2000 index up 1.14%. Wednesday is a busy day for economic data releases headlined by the monthly CPI reports hitting an hour before the bell. Mortgage apps, Empire manufacturing, Retail sales and Hourly earnings should all flesh out the current state of inflation. Softer prints are likely to be taken more bullishly by XLC and XLK given the Fed’s stance on keeping rates higher for longer to combat inflation.
AI was a headline with Google coming out with enhanced products and tools to challenge the emergence of OpenAI. Reddit shares jumped as meme stocks flexed their muscles again in the form of GME +60.1%. Insulet Corp (PODD), popped to the tune of +7.1% and it will be interesting to see if the stock and some of its fellow GLP1 victims can regain footing. Big implications for XLV there, but more follow through is needed.
Eco Data Releases | Wednesday May 15th, 2024
| Date Time | Event | Survey | Actual | Prior | |
| 05/15/2024 07:00 | MBA Mortgage Applications | 10-May | — | — | 2.60% |
| 05/15/2024 08:30 | Empire Manufacturing | May | -10 | — | -14.3 |
| 05/15/2024 08:30 | CPI MoM | Apr | 0.40% | — | 0.40% |
| 05/15/2024 08:30 | CPI Ex Food and Energy MoM | Apr | 0.30% | — | 0.40% |
| 05/15/2024 08:30 | CPI YoY | Apr | 3.40% | — | 3.50% |
| 05/15/2024 08:30 | CPI Ex Food and Energy YoY | Apr | 3.60% | — | 3.80% |
| 05/15/2024 08:30 | CPI Index NSA | Apr | 313.752 | — | 312.332 |
| 05/15/2024 08:30 | CPI Core Index SA | Apr | 317.73 | — | 316.698 |
| 05/15/2024 08:30 | Real Avg Hourly Earning YoY | Apr | — | — | 0.60% |
| 05/15/2024 08:30 | Real Avg Weekly Earnings YoY | Apr | — | — | 0.60% |
| 05/15/2024 08:30 | Retail Sales Advance MoM | Apr | 0.40% | — | 0.70% |
| 05/15/2024 08:30 | Retail Sales Ex Auto MoM | Apr | 0.20% | — | 1.10% |
| 05/15/2024 08:30 | Retail Sales Ex Auto and Gas | Apr | 0.20% | — | 1.00% |
| 05/15/2024 08:30 | Retail Sales Control Group | Apr | 0.10% | — | 1.10% |
| 05/15/2024 10:00 | Business Inventories | Mar | -0.10% | — | 0.40% |
| 05/15/2024 10:00 | NAHB Housing Market Index | May | 50 | — | 51 |
| 05/15/2024 16:00 | Total Net TIC Flows | Mar | — | — | $51.6b |
| 05/15/2024 16:00 | Net Long-term TIC Flows | Mar | — | — | $71.5b |
S&P 500 Constituent Earnings Announcements by GICS Sector | Wednesday May 15th, 2024
| Co. Time | Period | Actual | Estimate |
| CSCO Aft-mkt | Q3 2024 | — | $0.82 |
Earnings remain light, though investors will look to NVDA’s release a week from now on 5/22 with great interest to confirm or challenge the market’s dominant player and theme.
GME (200-day m.a. | Relative to S&P 500 )
This is indeed a flex by the reddit crowd. Problem being, you have to actually be in the stock before these things happen to reap the benefit of this whirlwind. Seems tough for an “investor” to participate, but for the brave, you likely have days rather than weeks or months to capture any remaining upside during the current spasm.
PODD (200-day m.a. | Relative to S&P 500 )
PODD is establishing support at the $160 level in the near-term, but needs a break-out above $200 to change the chart in a positive way. Near-term price action is indicative of potential change, so keep an eye on this one. This would have big implications for XLV if investors start seeing beyond GLP1 pessimism
When evaluating the Healthcare Sector (XLV), it’s key to look for stocks within the sector that are potentially changing trend. PODD as an example is showing some near-term upside volatility, but is still shy of a significant technical break-through. The price action has it elevated to the watch list for potential positive trend change…if more constituents start setting up this way on price it gets us interested in the sector and has us starting to cover our short. Going long involves the stock moving through trend channel resistance and horizontal resistance above the downward sloping 200-day moving average.
