July 28, 2025
S&P futures up 0.3% in Monday morning trading following a strong week for U.S. equities, with the S&P 500 hitting all-time highs in all five sessions and the S&P, Dow, and Nasdaq each gaining over 1%. Big tech and retail favorites led. Asia was mixed overnight (Japan −1%, Hong Kong outperformed), while Europe is up ~0.9%. Treasuries are slightly firmer, the dollar index up 0.5%, gold +0.1%, Bitcoin +0.4%, and WTI crude +0.9%.
Trade deal momentum remains a key tailwind after the U.S. and EU agreed to a 15% tariff rate, and the U.S.–China tariff truce was reportedly extended another 90 days. Trump also suggested a broader deal with China is near. Other bullish drivers include AI capex, strong earnings, resilient macro data, retail inflows, systematic fund buying, buyback resumption, expected Fed cuts, and increased M&A activity.
This week’s economic calendar features a heavy data slate:
- Monday: Dallas Fed manufacturing
- Tuesday: Trade balance, home prices, JOLTS, consumer confidence
- Wednesday: ADP, Q2 GDP, pending home sales, FOMC decision
- Thursday: Q2 ECI, PCE inflation, income/spending, claims, Chicago PMI
- Friday: July payrolls, ISM manufacturing, construction spending, Michigan sentiment
Earnings peak this week with nearly 40% of S&P 500 market cap reporting, including MSFT and META (7/30), AAPL and AMZN (7/31). In corporate news:
- UNP could announce a deal to acquire NSC early this week
- TSLA and Samsung signed a long-term AI chip manufacturing deal
- PARA expects to finalize its Skydance merger by 9-Aug
- PD reportedly exploring strategic options, including a sale
- Jeff Bezos completed a $5.7B share sale in AMZN
U.S. equities ended Friday higher (Dow +0.47%, S&P 500 +0.40%, Nasdaq +0.24%, Russell 2000 +0.40%), with the S&P 500 and Nasdaq notching fresh record closes. Indexes gained over 1% for the week. Treasuries firmed, with long-end yields down 1–3 bp. The dollar index rose 0.3%, gold fell 1.1%, Bitcoin dropped 3%, and WTI crude declined 1.3%.
Markets remained in a holding pattern ahead of the Aug. 1 reciprocal tariff deadline. A U.S.–EU deal with a 15% tariff rate is widely expected, but Trump cited only 50/50 odds. There’s also confusion around the U.S.–Japan deal, particularly concerning profit-sharing from $550B in investment. June durable goods orders dropped 9.3% m/m (ex-transports +0.2%), and core capital goods fell 0.7%, missing expectations. Next week brings the FOMC decision (Wed), July employment report (Fri), and Treasury’s refunding update. Roughly 40% of the S&P 500’s market cap reports earnings, including MSFT, META (7/30) and AAPL, AMZN (7/31).
Leading sectors included Materials (+1.17%), Industrials (+0.98%), Consumer Discretionary (+0.78%), Financials (+0.72%), and Healthcare (+0.50%). Laggards were Energy (−0.40%), Communication Services (−0.19%), Real Estate (+0.01%), Consumer Staples (+0.14%), Technology (+0.24%), and Utilities (+0.25%).
Company Highlights by GICS Sector
Information Technology
PLTR (+2.5%): Initiated Overweight at Piper Sandler; seen as a secular AI winner despite valuation.
INTC (−8.5%): Q2 beat aided by tariff pull-ins; Q3 revenue guided up but EPS guided down due to Lunar Lake ramp margin pressure.
Communication Services
CHTR (−18.5%): Q2 EBITDA missed; internet subscriber losses worse than expected; FY25 capex cut.
Consumer Discretionary
DECK (+11.4%): Beat on earnings, revenue, and margins; strong international UGG sales; upbeat HOKA guidance.
SAM (+6.5%): Q2 beat; raised FY25 EPS and gross margin guidance; tariff pressure moderating.
CRI (−19.7%): Q2 earnings and margin miss; flagged H2 tariff risks.
SRPT (−7.4%): EU regulators rejected Elevidys marketing application; downgraded at JPM.
LEA (−8.1%): Q2 beat, but guided for lower 2H margins; stock up ~30% last 3 months.
Health Care
EW (+5.5%): Beat across all segments; strong TAVR sales; FY25 EPS and revenue guidance raised.
AON (+4.6%): Q2 EPS and revenue beat; strong 6% organic growth across business lines.
GILD (+2.7%): Upgraded to Buy at Needham on positive Yeztugo checks.
Industrials
FIX (+22.4%): Q2 revenue, EPS, and EBITDA beat; backlog rose $1.2B q/q; 11.1% dividend hike.
SAIA (+7.0%): Q2 beat; improving facility efficiency; cautious demand/pricing outlook.
BAH (+0.9%): Beat on strength in Defense and Intelligence.
SNV (−12.5%): Announced $8.6B merger with PNFP in all-stock deal; seen as part of regional bank consolidation.
Materials
OVV (+3.6%): Beat on production and FCF; raised FY guidance; debt reduction and Montney updates viewed positively.
DOW (−7.4%): Missed earnings; cut dividend 50%; flagged macro and tariff challenges.
Financials
BX (+3.6%): Q2 beat; noted strong IPO pipeline and capital deployment.
SCHW (+0.4%): Announced $20B buyback authorization.
PNFP (−12.5%): Down on merger announcement with SNV.
Energy
XLE (−0.4%): Sector pressured by crude weakness; OVV outperformed.
Real Estate
DLR (+1.1%): Q2 beat and raised; strength in 0–1MW data center leasing continued.
Utilities
Flat to modestly positive; no notable earnings drivers.
Eco Data Releases | Monday July 28th, 2025
S&P 500 Constituent Earnings Announcements | Monday July 28th, 2025
Data sourced from FactSet Research Systems Inc.
