August 5, 2025
S&P futures up 0.1% following Monday’s sharp equity rally, which saw all major indexes gain over 1% and every sector finish higher except energy. Momentum, small caps, crypto, retail names, memes, and Mag 7 stocks led the charge.
Overnight, Asian markets were mostly higher (led by South Korea and Taiwan), and Europe is modestly firmer. Treasuries slightly weaker with 2Y yields up ~2 bp. Dollar +0.2%. Gold -0.2%. Bitcoin futures -0.2%. WTI crude -1%, extending Monday’s decline on continued OPEC+ supply increases.
Macro themes remain quiet, with focus on AI optimism (following PLTR’s blowout quarter), dovish Fed commentary (Daly hinted at >50 bp easing), and resilient buy-the-dip sentiment, even as concerns linger about labor market trends and economic data credibility. Overseas, China’s July services PMI hit a one-year high, providing a modest positive.
Today’s calendar includes the June trade balance, final S&P Global U.S. services PMI, and July ISM services index (expected at 51.5). A $58B 3-year Treasury auction is also set. Later this week: productivity, claims, inflation expectations, and $42B/$25B auctions of 10- and 30-year Treasuries.
Notable Earnings & Headlines
- PLTR +: Beat and raise; AI-driven U.S. commercial and gov’t strength cited.
- MELI –: Missed on margins due to Brazil shipping and credit card business.
- VRTX –: Disappointed on trial data despite inline results.
- AXON +: Boosted by strong bookings growth.
- FANG ~: Beat and lowered capex again; some scrutiny on oil mix.
- SBAC +: Commentary focused on expected domestic activity pickup.
- ACM +: Beat with strong margin performance.
- HIMS –: Lower guide and ongoing weight-loss business questions weighed on sentiment.
- BMRN +: Helped by beat and supportive trial data.
- BWXT +: Beat and raised outlook.
- TREX +: Highlighted margin expansion and new product strength.
- LSCC +: Boosted by server growth and backlog momentum
U.S. equities staged a strong rebound Monday (Dow +1.34%, S&P 500 +1.47%, Nasdaq +1.95%, Russell 2000 +2.10%), reversing much of Friday’s selloff as the S&P 500 ended less than 1% off record highs. The rally came amid quiet macro headlines and little in the way of fresh catalysts. Investors shrugged off last week’s concerns about labor market softness, delayed tariff effects, and a protracted seven-week stretch until the next FOMC decision. Despite ongoing seasonal headwinds and valuation scrutiny tied to AI capex and market concentration, sentiment was buoyed by strong Q2 earnings, positive revisions trends, and the ongoing narrative of secular AI growth.
Factory orders for June fell 4.8% month-over-month, a sharp drop largely attributed to a pullback in aircraft orders. While weak, the data came in slightly better than feared and failed to dent the positive risk tone. Tariff developments remained a backdrop, with the EU agreeing to suspend retaliatory duties on U.S. goods for six months as part of a deal with the Trump administration, while President Trump threatened to raise tariffs on India over continued purchases of Russian oil. Broader trade policy remains a focus, with markets anticipating Trump’s imminent nominations for a new Federal Reserve governor and BLS commissioner.
In markets, Treasuries were steady to slightly firmer at the long end following Friday’s major rally (largest single-day yield drop since August 2024). The dollar index slipped 0.4%, gold rose 0.8%, Bitcoin futures gained 1.5%, and WTI crude fell 1.5% as OPEC+ continued unwinding voluntary production cuts, adding another 547K bpd.
Looking ahead, Tuesday’s calendar features the June trade balance and July ISM services index (expected at 51.5 vs 50.8 prior). The rest of the week includes Q2 productivity, unit labor costs, jobless claims, and NY Fed inflation expectations, with Fed speakers scattered throughout.
Stock-Level Highlights By GICS Sector
Information Technology (S&P +2.15%)
- TSLA +2.2%: Board approved a new 96M-share pay package for Elon Musk under the 2019 incentive plan.
- ON -15.6%: Q2 results and Q3 guidance in line, but margins light and industrial demand still weak.
- WAT -1.6%: Q2 revenue beat; EPS in line; Q3 guide light, though FY outlook raised.
- COMM +86.3%: Soared after agreeing to sell its cable/connectivity unit to Amphenol for $10.5B.
Communication Services (S&P +2.59%)
- SPOT +5.0%: Announced global subscription price increases; upgraded to Neutral at Phillip Capital.
- AEO +23.7%: Jumped after Trump praised its Sydney Sweeney ad in a Truth Social post.
- W +12.7%: Q2 beat on revenue and EPS; stronger U.S. sales and EBITDA margins.
Consumer Discretionary (S&P +0.68%)
- TSN +2.4%: Q3 beat and raised FY outlook; strong Chicken segment offset beef weakness.
- HOG: Named former Topgolf exec Artie Starss as new CEO.
- JOBY +18.8%: Will acquire Blade’s urban air mobility business in a deal valued up to $125M.
- TGTX -18.0%: Q2 revenue beat, EPS missed; FY guidance raised, but Briumvi seen underwhelming.
Consumer Staples (S&P +0.42%)
- ENR +26.7%: FQ3 beat; Q4 guide ahead on production credit qualification; margins seen pressured.
- FRPT +6.1%: EBITDA beat; revenue light; reaffirmed FY guidance, but trimmed topline growth outlook.
Health Care (S&P +1.41%)
- IDXX +27.5%: Q2 beat; recurring diagnostics revenue strong; FY guide raised.
- REPL -24.9%: Dropped after FDA rejection of RP1; Prasad reportedly not involved.
- BRKR -8.6%: Q2 miss, FY guide cut; pressured by weak academic and industrial demand.
Financials (S&P +0.87%)
- BRK.B -2.9%: Q2 earnings down y/y; KHC write-down and lack of buybacks noted.
- HNI -10.4%: Fell on announcement of $2.2B cash-and-stock acquisition of SCS.
- SCS +62.9%: Surged on HNI’s takeover offer, which carried an 80% premium.
Industrials (S&P +0.91%)
- MLM +4.2%: Q2 EBITDA guide raised; asset swap with Quikrete nets $450M in cash.
Materials (S&P +1.42%)
- CC +6.2%: Reached settlement with New Jersey over PFAS-related environmental claims.
- BP +2.3%: Announced major oil and gas discovery off Brazil; cost-cutting update expected.
Utilities (S&P +1.74%)
- Sector broadly higher on falling yields and continued interest in defensives; no major stock-specific news.
Real Estate (S&P +0.81%)
- Participated in the rally; multifamily REITs were among the day’s relative underperformers
Eco Data Releases | Tuesday August 5th, 2025
S&P 500 Constituent Earnings Announcements | Tuesday August 5th, 2025
Data sourced from FactSet Research Systems Inc.
