January 22, 2026
We’ve built out a database of 382 of the most liquid, US domiciled ETFs across a broad range of thematic categories. This week, we’re using that resource to analyze thematic fund flow trends over the past 1, 3 and 6-month periods.
The past six months have underscored how thematic ETF leadership is shaped less by static narratives and more by macro regime shifts, rate expectations, and capital discipline. While thematic ETFs are often discussed as long-duration vehicles, actual investor behavior has been highly time-horizon dependent, with meaningful differences between short-term momentum, intermediate confirmation, and longer-term capital commitment.
Examining performance and flows together across 1-, 3-, and 6-month windows reveals a recurring pattern: price leadership and capital allocation frequently diverge, particularly in higher-beta and leveraged themes.
1-Month Rotation: Momentum Returns Faster Than Capital
Over the past month, thematic leadership has been driven by a sharp rebound in high-beta, volatility-sensitive exposures, coinciding with periods of macro de-escalation and easing pressure on long-end yields. Crypto-linked ETFs, leveraged semiconductors, and precious-metal beta dominated the performance rankings.
However, net flows lagged price gains, suggesting the rebound was driven largely by positioning resets and short-covering, rather than sustained reallocation.
Top 10 — 1-Month Performance & Flows
| ETF | Theme | 1M Return | 1M Net Flows |
| AGQ | Silver (Levered) | +83.8% | +$210M |
| SOXL | Semiconductors (Levered) | +50.0% | −$2.1B |
| URA | Uranium / Nuclear | +28.9% | +$140M |
| BKCH | Blockchain | +23.8% | +$35M |
| DAPP | Blockchain | +23.0% | +$28M |
| STCE | Crypto Thematic | +20.3% | +$12M |
| BITQ | Crypto Equity | +18.6% | +$18M |
| SMH | Semiconductors | +14.1% | +$720M |
| IBLC | Blockchain | +13.7% | +$6M |
| FDIG | Crypto Payments | +12.9% | +$14M |
Bottom 10 — 1-Month Performance & Flows
| ETF | Theme | 1M Return | 1M Net Flows |
| MSOX | Cannabis (Levered) | −53.1% | −$85M |
| WEED | Cannabis | −27.1% | −$22M |
| SOXS | Semiconductors (Inverse) | −37.5% | +$310M |
| IGV | Software | −7.5% | −$460M |
| BETZ | Online Gaming | −6.3% | −$18M |
| FLYU | Travel (Levered) | −3.1% | −$9M |
| KCCA | Carbon Allowances | −0.5% | −$7M |
| XLRE | Real Estate | +5.2% | −$410M |
| IYR | Real Estate | +5.2% | −$165M |
| DVY | Dividend Equity | +4.1% | −$95M |
1-Month takeaway: strong price rebounds occurred alongside continued skepticism in flows, especially in leveraged equity themes.
3-Month Rotation: Structural Themes Begin to Dominate
At the 3-month horizon, dispersion narrows and theme differentiation improves. Price leadership increasingly reflects structural demand rather than episodic sentiment. Semiconductors, uranium, and real-asset exposures retain leadership, while software, cannabis, and China-centric themes continue to lag.
Flows over this horizon show greater alignment with performance, though select crowded trades still see capital exit despite strong returns.
Top 10 — 3-Month Performance & Flows
| ETF | Theme | 3M Return | 3M Net Flows |
| AGQ | Silver (Levered) | +149.6% | +$420M |
| SLV | Silver | +64.8% | −$610M |
| SOXL | Semiconductors (Levered) | +49.7% | −$3.4B |
| SMH | Semiconductors | +17.0% | +$1.3B |
| KOPX | Copper Miners | +10.9% | +$85M |
| QQQ | Large-Cap Growth | +8.1% | +$2.6B |
| DVY | Dividend Equity | +7.1% | −$210M |
| JEPQ | Equity Income | +6.0% | +$690M |
| VTI | Broad Equity | +5.2% | +$2.1B |
| URA | Uranium / Nuclear | +2.4% | +$190M |
Bottom 10 — 3-Month Performance & Flows
| ETF | Theme | 3M Return | 3M Net Flows |
| SOXS | Semiconductors (Inverse) | −47.3% | +$720M |
| MSOX | Cannabis (Levered) | −45.1% | −$130M |
| BKCH | Blockchain | −22.6% | −$18M |
| STCE | Crypto | −22.6% | −$9M |
| FDIG | Crypto Payments | −17.9% | −$24M |
| IGV | Software | −12.9% | −$640M |
| CWEB | China Internet | −11.0% | −$55M |
| BETZ | Gaming | −10.3% | −$31M |
| KCCA | Carbon | −9.7% | −$22M |
| FLYD | Travel (Inverse) | −22.5% | +$41M |
3-Month takeaway: flows increasingly favor durable infrastructure and income-oriented themes, even as leveraged momentum products remain trading vehicles rather than allocations.
6-Month Rotation: Real Assets and Infrastructure Capture Capital
Over six months, thematic rotation reflects macro persistence: inflation sensitivity, AI infrastructure build-out, and energy security. Unlike shorter horizons, flows and performance converge more clearly, particularly in real assets and unlevered structural themes.
Top 10 — 6-Month Performance & Flows
| ETF | Theme | 6M Return | 6M Net Flows |
| AGQ | Silver (Levered) | +366.7% | +$880M |
| SLV | Silver | +135.5% | −$980M |
| SOXL | Semiconductors (Levered) | +124.8% | −$4.4B |
| WGMI | Bitcoin Miners | +95.1% | +$62M |
| URA | Uranium | +42.7% | +$225M |
| SMH | Semiconductors | +38.8% | +$1.9B |
| BKCH | Blockchain | +38.1% | +$14M |
| GLD | Gold | +36.7% | +$2.3B |
| STCE | Crypto | +33.7% | +$11M |
| QQQ | Large-Cap Growth | +18.1% | +$3.4B |
Bottom 10 — 6-Month Performance & Flows
| ETF | Theme | 6M Return | 6M Net Flows |
| SOXS | Semiconductors (Inverse) | −70.4% | +$1.1B |
| IGV | Software | −10.5% | −$705M |
| BETZ | Gaming | −15.4% | −$84M |
| FLYD | Travel (Inverse) | −18.1% | +$66M |
| XLRE | Real Estate | +2.9% | −$510M |
| IYR | Real Estate | +4.4% | −$212M |
| BSV | Short Bonds | +2.6% | +$840M |
| SGOV | T-Bills | +2.1% | +$2.1B |
| ESGD | ESG Intl | +14.2% | −$195M |
| DVY | Dividend Equity | +12.1% | −$210M |
6-Month takeaway: longer-term capital has favored real assets, core semiconductors, gold, and short-duration fixed income, while leveraged equity themes function primarily as trading instruments.
Conclusion
Current macro conditions are selectively supportive of thematic assets tied to infrastructure, real assets, and balance-sheet durability, rather than broad speculative growth. Elevated geopolitical uncertainty, episodic trade risk, and a rates backdrop that remains restrictive at the long end have reinforced demand for themes with tangible cash flows, physical scarcity, or policy-agnostic demand drivers.
This is most evident in precious metals, uranium, and core semiconductor infrastructure. Gold and silver have benefited from persistent hedging demand, while uranium and copper-linked themes reflect increasing focus on power generation, grid resilience, and energy security. In technology, unlevered semiconductor ETFs—positioned closer to the physical AI build-out—have attracted sustained inflows, even during periods when broader growth equities struggled.
Importantly, fund flows are largely confirming this macro alignment. Over the 3- and 6-month horizons, capital has consistently accumulated in gold, short-duration fixed income, core semiconductor, and energy infrastructure exposures, despite periodic volatility in prices. These themes align with macro conditions that reward liquidity, scale, and real-economy linkage.
By contrast, themes that have shown the strongest short-term performance—such as leveraged semiconductors, crypto miners, and high-beta blockchain equities—have not seen commensurate inflows. In many cases, these funds have experienced net outflows even as prices rallied, indicating that investors continue to treat them as tactical trading vehicles rather than strategic allocations.
Similarly, policy- and sentiment-dependent themes—including cannabis, China internet, carbon allowances, and certain clean-energy sub-segments—remain weakly supported by both macro conditions and flows. The lack of sustained capital commitment suggests that investors are still discounting regulatory uncertainty and uneven demand visibility in these areas.
Taken together, the message from thematic rotation is consistent: macro trends are favoring “hard” themes over “narrative” themes, and flows are reinforcing that distinction. Capital is gravitating toward thematic assets that resemble infrastructure or real assets, while higher-beta thematic expressions continue to be traded opportunistically rather than accumulated.
Data sourced from Factset Research Systems Inc.
