NVDA’s stock chart is taking on a distributional look. The buyer reaction in the near-term is likely important to the US equity bull market
Narrations of a Sector ETF Operator | NVDA Remains the Bull’s Bellwether Read More »
March 8, 2025 A week into March, US equities sit in a precarious position. The S&P 500 (chart below, 1yr daily) is at near-term support and has formed negative momentum divergences on both of our favored oscillator studies, the MACD and the RSI (chart, panels 2 & 3). The index bounced last Friday after hitting
February 23, 2025 The bullish trend for US equities matured in 2024 and is showing signs of fatigue to begin 2025. We are seeing several negative momentum divergences across important market bellwethers from the Mag7 to Housing to the S&P 500 itself. US equities are losing momentum to the upside and investors are starting to
Why are rates moving lower while commodities prices are moving higher? Our thought experiment leads us to a negative conclusion.
February 10, 2025 The S&P 500 continues in a consolidation pattern that started in early December. The index made a marginal new high on January 23rd, but the buyer couldn’t sustain above that level for longer than a day. The move sets up a negative momentum divergence in the RSI and MACD oscillators (chart below,
Narrations of a Sector ETF Operator | The Consumer is the Pivot Read More »
US equities have moved a lot but gone basically nowhere over the past three weeks. These consolidations, especially if they are volatile, can be problematic for a trend-following portfolio allocation model like Elev8. It is the nature of trend following strategies that pivot points for trend change are also ideal accumulation points if the current
Above 4.7% on the 10yr Yield, equities are likely to run into trouble. Below 4.5% is likely a green light for the bull.
Going long Min vol. and selling out Discretionary as we expect a deeper correction for equities in the near-term
While our study of secular trends points to the potential for further upside in the bull market, interest rates will play a key roll in the first half of 2025. We think rising rates would likely tip equities into a more significant correction, but if rates stay contained below the 4.67% level we are likely to see more gains in the near-term as the Fed would have some wiggle room to keep supporting the domestic economy.
Narrations of a Sector ETF Operator | What We’re Watching to Start 2025, January 5, 2025 Read More »
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