Macro Mondays

The S&P 500 enters the new week near an all-time high, but the headline index is increasingly masking a much weaker market underneath. The attached long-term breadth chart shows the S&P 500 near 7,723 and still comfortably above its 50-day and 200-day moving averages, while only about 24% of stocks are above their 50-day moving […]

AI leaders are not uniformly expensive relative to the broader market. With the S&P near 19 times forward earnings, strong guidance from NVIDIA, Micron, TSMC, Microsoft and Meta makes earnings delivery — not valuation alone — the critical test for sector leadership.

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Weak employment, strong earnings, improving productivity and Middle East de-escalation are creating a more rates-friendly macro backdrop. If inflation cooperates and real yields decline, Quality and Growth should benefit, while Momentum, crowded AI hardware and Energy face greater pressure.

Low equity volatility shows the momentum unwind is a concentrated positioning reset, not broad risk-off selling. The durable Growth pivot will arrive when Middle East resolution or tame core inflation pulls long-term nominal and real Treasury yields decisively lower.