July 20, 2025 As July ticks on with equities sitting near all-timer highs, there’s a temptation to worry. The volatility of March and April has subsided with the VIX and MOVE indices for equity and bond volatility retracing to pre-decline levels (chart below). The sharp rotation into min vol. stocks, bonds and ex-US equities has […]
Narrations of a Sector ETF Operator | Are Investors Being Complacent? Read More »
July 13, 2025 As the S&P 500 consolidates just below fresh all-time highs, we are seeing some near-term buying in the Small Cap. space. The chart below shows various Russell and S&P benchmark indices by size and their performance against the broad market R3K since the April 7th low for equities. The Russell 2000 briefly
July 6, 2025 The S&P 500 has broken out to new all-time highs in July, and we are finally seeing a change in the behavior of the average stock. For most of 2024 a primary concern for the bull was the lack of upside participation at the stock level despite a top line uptrend for
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June 22, 2025 The S&P 500 has been consolidating for two weeks. Prices remain above our neckline of 5786 (chart below) which keeps the most aggressive upside scenarios on the table from a technical perspective. 5504 remains our accumulation point on any deeper drawdown. While investors look for resolution from the S&P 500’s near-term consolidation,
Narrations of a Sector ETF Operator | The Waiting is the Hardest Part Read More »
June 15, 2025 Escalations in the Middle East on the heels of a bout of global trade realignment sets up a scenario straight out of an economics case study. Oil prices have risen (albeit from lows of the cycle, while equities in the very near-term have sold off along with US Treasuries at the long
June 8, 2025 The Bull must be feeling pretty confident with the S&P 500 closing last week above the 6000 level (chart below). The buyer has kept its foot on the gas despite the index reaching overbought conditions in mid-May and the current price is <3% below the all-time high. The usual gripes can still
Narrations of a Sector ETF Operator | Taking the Bull by the Horns Read More »
May 25, 2025 The S&P 500 is attempting bullish reversal after a near 20% correction from February through early April. As May progresses, equities have begun a consolidation. The chart below outlines the pivot zone between 5671 and 5783. Both levels have functioned as support and resistance during the previous twelve months’ price action. Another
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May 18, 2025 The S&P 500 (chart below) approaches another marker in its bullish reversal, the 6017 level. This marks the neckline of the November-February top in the index. We approach with our MACD study is above highs of the past 12 months while our RSI study is on the cusp of the 70 level
May 11, 2025 We’re going to get a bit further into the weeds on Global trade negotiations in this week’s market letter. The dialogue has shifted from economic “saber-rattling” to a more constructive round of meetings focused on finding agreement and US equities have responded favorably as the calendar turns to May. Global trade negotiations
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April 27, 2025 At the risk of oversimplifying, conciliatory developments on global trade this week have coincided with a developing early-stage bullish reversal in the S&P 500 and US equity outperformance vs. rest of world equities (chart below). S&P 500 price has moved above the 5504 level which is our minimum threshold for bullish reversal
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