Macro Mondays

With November CPI confirming a clear downshift in inflation—core inflation slowing to its weakest pace since early 2021—and multiple Fed officials openly acknowledging that policy remains restrictive, disinflation has become the dominant macro force shaping sector leadership. History suggests that periods of falling inflation do not lift all boats equally. Instead, they tend to reward

December 14, 2025 U.S. equities are closing the year at an inflection point that feels deceptively calm. Markets have absorbed a December 25 bp Federal Reserve rate cut and a renewed Treasury bill purchase program designed to stabilize reserves, while risk assets have responded with improved sentiment, better breadth, and renewed inflows. On the surface,

December 7, 2025 The crosscurrents shaping the U.S. equity market today are exactly what investors expect from a late-cycle environment: strong earnings, softening labor, political noise around monetary policy, and a macro backdrop that is neither hot enough to reignite inflation nor cool enough to derail growth. In that setting, sector leadership is no longer