July 16, 2025
U.S. equity futures are slightly lower Wednesday morning after Tuesday’s reversal, which saw the S&P 500 close down despite early strength. Small caps, banks, crypto-linked names, energy, materials, and healthcare lagged, while semis outperformed, lifting tech more than 1%. Asian markets dipped modestly overnight; Europe is down ~0.4%. Treasuries are steady to slightly firmer, the dollar is off 0.1%, gold up 0.3%, Bitcoin futures +2.4%, and WTI crude down 0.3%.
Macro Focus:
Markets remain resilient despite renewed tariff anxiety. Trump floated new tariffs on pharmaceuticals and semis by August 1, while ASML withdrew its 2026 guidance citing macro and geopolitical uncertainty. Complacency around the TACO narrative is under fresh scrutiny, especially as trade and immigration impacts begin showing up in data. Treasury yields are stabilizing after Tuesday’s spike, with global attention on the long end of the JGB curve following a 30-year yield surge to a 26-year high.
Today’s Data & Events:
U.S. PPI and industrial production due this morning, followed by the Beige Book this afternoon. Fed speakers include Barkin, Hammack, Barr, and Williams. Fed messaging remains patient. Reports suggest Hassett is emerging as a frontrunner to replace Powell. Key data continues Thursday with retail sales, jobless claims, and housing sentiment.
Notable Movers:
- ASML down after pulling its 2026 growth outlook due to trade/geopolitical risks.
- GPN higher after reports Elliott built a large stake following a 10-year low.
- JBHT slightly better on earnings; Street welcomed a $100M cost-cutting plan.
- OMC guided steady, noted potential for improved ad spend later in 2025.
- BHF up on reports it’s nearing a buyout by Aquarian Holdings.
- BAC, GS, MS earnings due this morning
U.S. equities ended mostly lower on Tuesday (Dow –0.98%, S&P 500 –0.40%, Nasdaq +0.18%, Russell 2000 –1.99%), with the S&P 500 finishing at session lows despite touching a fresh intraday high early on. Breadth was deeply negative—over 90% of S&P 500 constituents declined—and the equal-weight S&P 500 underperformed the cap-weighted index by 100 bps. A higher rate backdrop and sector rotation offset early AI-driven optimism from Nvidia’s China chip news.
June CPI data showed headline inflation up 0.3% m/m and 2.7% y/y, in line with expectations. However, core CPI rose just 0.2% m/m vs consensus of 0.3%, keeping the y/y core rate at 2.9%. Notable declines were seen in used and new vehicles, airfares, and hotel rates, while shelter inflation slowed to 0.2% m/m. Despite the cooler print, Fed rate cut expectations moderated slightly, with the market now pricing in ~42 bps of easing for 2025.
The Empire State Manufacturing Survey surprised to the upside at +5.5 (vs. –11.5 expected), with new orders turning positive. Fed commentary remained cautious; Richmond’s Barkin and Boston’s Collins emphasized patience, while Dallas Fed President Logan was scheduled to speak after the close.
In trade, the U.S. imposed a 19% tariff on Indonesian imports, while Indonesia will pay nothing on U.S. goods. Trump claimed a trade deal with Indonesia, including the purchase of 50 Boeing jets. Elsewhere, little progress was reported in negotiations with the EU, Japan, or India.
Company-Specific News by GICS Sector
Information Technology (+1.27%)
- Nvidia (NVDA) rose 4% after securing approval to resume H20 chip sales to China. The move follows a reported meeting between CEO Jensen Huang and President Trump. Nvidia also introduced a new China-specific chip, the RTX PRO.
- AMD gained 6.4% after confirming it is preparing to resume MI308 chip shipments to China.
- The Trade Desk (TTD) jumped 6.6% on news it will replace ANSS in the S&P 500.
- CoreWeave (CRWV) rose 6.1% after committing $6B to a new Pennsylvania data center, ahead of Trump’s expected $70B AI/energy investment announcement.
- Nutanix (NTNX) gained 2.5% after Goldman Sachs initiated coverage with a Buy rating.
- Agilent (A) fell 6% after announcing CFO Bob McMahon will step down at the end of July.
Financials (–1.65%)
- JPMorgan (JPM) posted a Q2 EPS beat, driven by strength in trading and investment banking, and raised FY NII guidance, though margins contracted.
- Wells Fargo (WFC) declined 5.5% despite a Q2 beat; NII missed and FY25 guidance was cut to flat vs prior +1–3%.
- Citigroup (C) rose 3.7% after a strong quarter led by NII and capital markets performance; the bank guided FY25 revenue to the high end of its prior range.
- BlackRock (BLK) fell 5.9% despite an EPS beat; net inflows and AUM disappointed due to a large $52B redemption.
- State Street (STT) dropped 7.3%; although EPS and fee income beat, higher expenses and weaker NII weighed.
- FB Financial (FBK) fell 4.6% on cautious outlook around loan growth and provisioning.
- American Express (AXP) slipped 3.2% after being downgraded at Monness on limited near-term upside.
Health Care (–1.88%)
- UnitedHealth (UNH) dropped 3% after a Bloomberg article raised concerns about EPS-boosting asset sales with contingent repurchase terms.
- Newmont (NEM) fell 5.7% after announcing the resignation of CFO Karyn Ovelmen.
Industrials (–0.76%)
- Tesla (TSLA) declined 1.9% following reports that its North America sales VP, Troy Jones, has left the company—another recent high-profile departure.
- Joby Aviation (JOBY) soared 10.5% after expanding manufacturing capacity in California and Ohio.
- Boeing (BA) received an order for 50 jets from Indonesia as part of a broader trade package.
Consumer Discretionary (–1.09%)
- La-Z-Boy (LZB) lowered its fiscal sales and margin guidance, despite plans to acquire 15 stores.
- Albertsons (ACI) fell 5.1% after FQ1 results showed slightly better revenue and comps, but weaker gross margins.
- DoorDash (DASH) declined 2.5% after Jefferies downgraded the stock, citing valuation and take rate pressure.
Consumer Staples (–0.83%)
- MP Materials (MP) surged 20% after Apple announced a $500M investment, including $200M in prepayments for rare earth magnets.
Energy (–1.35%)
- WTI crude declined 0.7%, weighing on the sector. No major company-specific headlines, though OPEC noted optimism around easing global trade tensions.
Materials (–2.11%)
- MP was the notable outperformer in the space; however, the broader sector declined on weak metals pricing and a higher dollar.
- Newmont (NEM) and Agilent (A) both weighed on the sector following leadership departures.
Real Estate (–1.30%)
Utilities (–0.92%)
Communication Services (–0.62%)
- Google (GOOGL) will invest $25B in data centers and AI infrastructure across the largest U.S. electric grid.
- ACN and WPP were reported to be discussing a potential merger.
- Uber (UBER) and Baidu (BIDU) announced an autonomous vehicle partnership.
Eco Data Releases | Wednesday July 16th, 2025
S&P 500 Constituent Earnings Announcements | Wednesday July 16th, 2025
Data sourced from FactSet Research Systems Inc.
