October 14, 2025
S&P futures -1.1%, pulling back after Monday’s strong rebound. Treasuries are rallying with yields down 5–6 bp across the curve. Dollar Index +0.1%, gold +0.5%, Bitcoin -3.7%, WTI crude -2.1%.
Markets turned risk-off after hopes of U.S.–China trade de-escalation faded. Beijing sanctioned U.S. subsidiaries of a South Korean shipbuilder, while China tightened rare-earth export license controls. Treasury Secretary Bessent accused Beijing of “trying to hurt the global economy,” adding that Washington has drafted countermeasures if talks fail.
The NFIB Small Business Optimism Index fell to 98.8 (vs. 100.8), with owners citing rising costs and hiring difficulties. Focus today shifts to Powell’s 12:20 ET remarks at NABE, with additional Fedspeak from Bowman, Waller, and Collins. Later this week: Empire State Manufacturing, Beige Book (Wed), and Philly Fed/NAHB (Thu).
Corporate Highlights
Financials
- JPM: Beat expectations; reported record Q3 Markets revenue.
- WFC: Earnings and loan growth topped forecasts; noted strong fee income.
- HOOD: Exploring acquisitions in the prediction-market space.
Health Care
- JNJ: Q3 beat; reaffirmed FY outlook and will spin off Ortho division.
- NVAX: Under activist pressure to pursue a sale.
Consumer Discretionary
- DPZ: Reported stronger U.S. same-store sales.
- GM: To take $1.6B in Q3 EV-related charges.
- F: Cutting production on five models due to supplier fire.
- PII: Positive Q3 preannouncement; to separate Indian Motorcycle business.
Information Technology
- ARM: Higher on report of OpenAI chip collaboration.
- NVDA: Slightly lower as China tensions reintroduce export risk.
Materials & Energy
- OEC: Guided lower for Q3 amid weak Western tire production.
- RYN & PCH: Announced $7B+ all-stock timberland merger
U.S. equities rebounded sharply on Monday (Dow +1.29% · S&P 500 +1.56% · Nasdaq +2.21% · Russell 2000 +2.79%), with the S&P 500 and Nasdaq posting their strongest sessions since May, following Friday’s steep selloff—their worst since early April’s “Liberation Day” drop. Gains were broad-based, led by big tech, semiconductors, and cyclical sectors, while defensives lagged. Treasuries were closed for Columbus Day, the Dollar Index rose 0.3%, gold surged 3.3% to a record above $4,100/oz, Bitcoin fell 0.8%, and WTI crude gained 1% after last week’s slide below $60/barrel.
Monday’s rally reflected easing U.S.–China trade tensions after Friday’s tariff threats. Over the weekend, President Trump struck a softer tone on Truth Social, saying, “Don’t worry about China, it will all be fine,” while Vice President Vance said Beijing had “chosen the path of reason.” The remarks helped calm markets after Trump’s late-Friday threat to impose a 100% tariff on all Chinese imports, and investors interpreted the shift as a potential step toward de-escalation ahead of the APEC summit later this month. Still, strategists warned the trade overhang remains, with Morgan Stanley projecting an 11% downside risk for the S&P 500 if tensions remain unresolved before November.
The U.S. government shutdown entered its third week with little sign of progress. Both chambers remain adjourned until Tuesday, ensuring the shutdown will stretch into mid-October. Reports suggest federal workers missed partial paychecks Friday, with troop pay potentially impacted midweek. Political divisions persist over ACA subsidy extensions, while the White House has issued layoff notices to 4,000 federal employees to pressure Congress. Markets continue to treat the impasse as noise rather than news, though the risk of delayed data releases and prolonged uncertainty remains.
In monetary policy, Philadelphia Fed President Anna Paulson said she supports two additional 25 bp cuts this year, emphasizing that tariffs are unlikely to generate sustained inflation. Her remarks came ahead of a busy week for Fed communications featuring Powell (Tuesday at NABE), Miran (Wednesday/Thursday), and Waller (Thursday), followed by the Fed’s Beige Book release Wednesday. Market pricing remains consistent with roughly 40 bp of total cuts by year-end.
Strategists remain constructive heading into Q3 earnings, expecting roughly 8% y/y EPS growth for the S&P 500, though they note valuations are stretched and the bar for upside surprises is high. BofA and Evercore ISI highlighted that flat-to-rising revisions during Q3 historically precede stronger earnings beats, while RBC cautioned that margin forecasts in tariff-sensitive sectors (Industrials, Materials, Healthcare) have softened.
Sector Highlights
Monday’s rebound was led by growth and cyclical sectors, reversing part of Friday’s broad selloff.
- Outperformers: Technology (+2.47%), Consumer Discretionary (+2.29%), Communication Services (+1.79%), Materials (+1.57%)
- Underperformers: Consumer Staples (-0.36%), Healthcare (-0.09%), Real Estate (+0.50%), Utilities (+0.75%), Financials (+0.94%), Industrials (+1.04%), Energy (+1.42%)
Tech, consumer discretionary, and communications powered gains as investors returned to high-beta names. Energy and financials advanced modestly but trailed broader benchmarks, while defensives underperformed amid rotation back into risk assets.
Information Technology
- AVGO (+9.9%) – Announced a major strategic partnership with OpenAI to deploy 10 gigawatts of custom AI accelerators, with production starting in 2026.
- POWI (+24.6%) – Jumped on news of collaboration with NVIDIA on AI datacenter power supply systems.
- AMAT (+4.5%) – Upgraded to Buy at BofA; cited Wafer Fab Equipment growth for the first time in four years and attractive relative valuation.
- CIEN (+5.7%) – Upgraded to Outperform at BNP Paribas; sees upside from growing data center networking demand.
- AAPL – Reportedly nearing deal to acquire home-security startup Prompt AI.
- FAST (-7.5%) – Missed EPS expectations; management flagged sluggish industrial activity but improving contract momentum.
Communication Services
- META – Hired Thinking Machines Lab co-founder, reportedly offering a $1.5B compensation package as part of its AI expansion.
- WBD (+4.0%) – Rose after rejecting PSKY’s ~$20/share takeover bid; reports suggest PSKY may raise or go hostile.
- GRND (+10.7%) – Spiked on reports of buyout discussions valuing the company near $3B.
- YELP (+11.8%) – Upgraded to Outperform at Evercore ISI; cited AI-driven TAM expansion through call automation and customer tools.
Consumer Discretionary
- TSLA – Led large-cap tech rally after Friday’s decline; benefited from renewed AI enthusiasm and easing trade tensions.
- PZZA (+9.7%) – Rallied on report Apollo Global Management made a $64/share bid for Papa John’s.
- EL (+5.8%) – Upgraded to Buy at Goldman; sees stabilization in China demand and travel retail recovery.
Financials
- JEF – Said losses from First Brands bankruptcy are manageable, alleviating credit exposure fears.
- C, GS, JPM, WFC – Set to report Q3 earnings Tuesday premarket; investors watching loan growth, trading activity, and NIM trends.
- BAC, MS – Scheduled to report Wednesday before the open.
Industrials
- BE (+5.0%) & BN (+5.0%) – Announced $5B AI infrastructure partnership to integrate fuel cells into datacenters.
- FAST (-7.5%) – Lagged after mixed Q3 results; cited slow industrial production.
Healthcare
- AZN – Announced U.S. drug price cuts amid White House pressure on pharma pricing.
- RCUS (+14%) – Jumped after phase-two study of anti-TIGIT therapy showed 50% two-year survival in GI cancers.
Energy & Materials
- MOS (-9.2%) – Weighed on materials group after preliminary Q3 volumes came in below expectations.
- BLD (+3%) – Extended strength on M&A tailwinds from prior week’s Specialty Products & Insulation acquisition.
Consumer Staples
- PEP – Extended recent gains following upbeat Q3 results and improved North American beverage trends.
Utilities & Real Estate
- ES (-1.9%) – Downgraded to Neutral at Janney Montgomery Scott on valuation.
- TREE (-3%) – CEO Doug Lebda passed away in an accident over the weekend
Eco Data Releases | Tuesday October 14th, 2025
S&P 500 Constituent Earnings Announcements | Tuesday October 14th, 2025
Data sourced from FactSet Research Systems Inc.
