October 15, 2025
S&P futures +0.6% in Wednesday morning trading, led by NVDA and TSLA. Follows Tuesday’s mixed close, with small caps, cyclicals, and banks outperforming while big tech lagged. Asian markets up over 1%, led by Japan, Hong Kong, and China; Europe higher with France leading on LVMH earnings and pension reform suspension. Treasuries steady, Dollar -0.2%, Gold +1%, Bitcoin -0.5%, WTI crude -0.2%.
Markets are pushing higher despite renewed U.S.–China trade tensions, after Trump threatened retaliation for China’s soybean boycott. Reports suggest Beijing believes Trump will ultimately avoid draconian tariffs to protect the stock market. Optimism around earnings and dovish Fed commentary remains the main driver. Big banks’ beats reinforced consumer resilience, while Powell’s remarks Tuesday were read as dovish, confirming expectations for two more rate cuts this year and an end to balance-sheet runoff. Flows remain constructive, with retail buying offsetting mutual fund year-end selling.
Corporate Updates
Pre-open earnings: BAC, MS, PNC, SYF, ABT.
- OpenAI working on new revenue and debt financing lines to meet $1T spending goals.
- ASML higher on stronger orders and upbeat 2026 expectations.
- GRND confirmed receipt of a take-private proposal.
- Hillenbrand (HI) in talks to be acquired by Lone Star.
- Papa John’s (PZZA) up on reports Apollo raised its bid to $64/share.
- Sempra (SOC) under pressure after CA court tentatively blocked pipeline restart.
- American Public Education (APEI) guided Q3 revenue above range, but flagged October drag from shutdown
U.S. equities finished mixed Tuesday (Dow +0.44% · S&P 500 -0.16% · Nasdaq -0.76% · Russell 2000 +1.38%), fading late after an early rally. The S&P 500 and Nasdaq slipped modestly, while the Dow and Russell 2000 gained, supported by strength in cyclicals and small-caps. Breadth was positive — equal-weight S&P (RSP) outperformed the cap-weighted index by roughly 100 bp, with value and cyclicals leading over growth and momentum. Treasuries were firmer with curve steepening; short-end yields fell ~5 bp. The Dollar Index -0.2%, gold +0.7%, Bitcoin -2.9%, and WTI crude -1.3%, marking its lowest close since early May.
Markets saw a volatile session as investors digested renewed U.S.–China trade tension, bank earnings, and Powell’s midday remarks. Stocks opened weaker after Beijing sanctioned U.S. subsidiaries of South Korea’s Hanwha Ocean, while Reuters reported an ongoing crackdown on rare-earth export licenses, signaling continued supply-chain friction. Treasury Secretary Bessent told the Financial Times that China is “trying to hurt the global economy,” adding that the U.S. has countermeasures ready if talks fail. The U.S., meanwhile, began imposing fees on Chinese ships docking at U.S. ports, further escalating the trade backdrop. Still, markets largely expect Trump and Xi to meet at APEC later this month, maintaining a degree of optimism that the rhetoric will cool.
On monetary policy, Fed Chair Powell struck a measured tone in his speech at the National Association for Business Economics, noting that the outlook for inflation and employment has not materially changed since the September FOMC meeting. He emphasized that price pressures are largely tariff-related, while both layoffs and hiring remain subdued. Powell reaffirmed the Fed’s meeting-by-meeting approach, saying the ample-reserves regime remains effective — comments viewed as dovish and consistent with market expectations for two additional 25 bp cuts by year-end.
Elsewhere, the NFIB Small Business Optimism Index fell to 98.8 (vs. 100.8 prior) as firms reported rising inflation pressures and labor shortages but maintained generally positive business sentiment. Looking ahead, focus turns to the Empire State Manufacturing Survey and Beige Book (Wednesday), followed by Philly Fed, NAHB Housing Index, and additional Fedspeak later in the week.
Sector Highlights
Leadership rotated toward cyclicals and value, with banks, industrials, and staples retailers outperforming while large-cap tech and semiconductors lagged.
- Outperformers: Consumer Staples (+1.72%), Industrials (+1.17%), Financials (+1.12%), Real Estate (+1.06%), Utilities (+0.92%), Materials (+0.87%), Healthcare (+0.27%), Communication Services (+0.23%), Energy (-0.07%)
- Underperformers: Technology (-1.59%), Consumer Discretionary (-0.26%)
The rotation reflected profit-taking in growth names following Monday’s AI-driven surge, alongside strength in rate-sensitive and value-oriented sectors after dovish Fed commentary and better-than-expected bank earnings.
Financials
- JPMorgan (JPM) – Beat expectations; posted record Q3 Markets revenue and guided Q4 NII slightly above consensus, though noted a high bar for further upside.
- Goldman Sachs (GS) – Beat on FICC, advisory, and lending; missed in Equities Trading; announced further staff cuts to reduce costs.
- Citigroup (C) – Reported broad-based strength and fee growth, aided by solid NII and expense discipline.
- Wells Fargo (WFC) – Beat on strong fee income and credit quality; reiterated FY NII guidance and raised medium-term ROTCE targets.
- BlackRock (BLK) – Beat with strong inflows and positive commentary on capital markets recovery.
- dLocal (DLO) – Upgraded to Buy at Goldman; cited attractive valuation and EBITDA growth potential.
Industrials
- Caterpillar (CAT) – Gained after JPMorgan raised PT ~30%, highlighting Energy & Transportation growth tied to AI datacenter demand.
- Boeing (BA) – Delivered 160 aircraft in Q3, its best quarter since 2018.
- Polaris (PII) – Positive Q3 preannouncement and plans to spin off Indian Motorcycle; guided Q3 EPS well above consensus.
Consumer Staples
- Walmart (WMT) – Rose after unveiling OpenAI-powered ChatGPT shopping integration with instant checkout.
- Albertsons (ACI) – Beat Q2 EPS and comps, raised FY guidance, and launched a $750M share repurchase program.
Consumer Discretionary
- Domino’s Pizza (DPZ) – Q3 beat across EPS, revenue, and U.S. comps; cited success of “Best Deal Ever” promotion.
- Ford (F) – Cutting production on five models due to fire at an aluminum supplier.
- General Motors (GM) – Taking $1.6B charge related to EV asset write-downs.
- Papa John’s (PZZA) – Reportedly received a $64/share bid from Apollo Global.
Information Technology
- AMD – Higher after Oracle Cloud said it will deploy 50K AMD chips.
- ARM Holdings (ARM) – Extended gains on reports of OpenAI collaboration.
- HP (HPQ) – Upgraded to Buy at HSBC; cited valuation and rising PC demand.
- CyberArk (CYBR) – Downgraded at Barclays on valuation concerns.
Healthcare
- Johnson & Johnson (JNJ) – Slight sales guidance raise, reaffirmed EPS, and confirmed Ortho business spin-off.
- Astria Therapeutics (ATXS) – Surged 37% after agreeing to be acquired by BioCryst (BCRX) for ~$700M in cash and stock.
- BioCryst (BCRX) – Fell 8.8% on deal dilution concerns.
- Alvotech (ALVO) – Upgraded to Overweight at Morgan Stanley, citing pipeline and execution consistency.
Materials & Energy
- Orion SA (OEC) – Plunged 15.6% after negative preannouncement, guiding EBITDA ~30% below consensus due to tire manufacturing weakness.
- Rayonier (RYN) & PotlatchDeltic (PCH) – Confirmed $7B+ all-stock merger, forming one of the largest U.S. timberland owners.
Communication Services
- T-Mobile (TMUS) – Upgraded to Outperform at RBC on valuation and subscriber growth.
- Walt Disney (DIS) – Announced Taylor Swift concert series to debut on Disney+.
- Media and telecom stocks benefited modestly from defensive rotation.
Eco Data Releases | Wednesday October 15th, 2025
S&P 500 Constituent Earnings Announcements | Wednesday October 15th, 2025
Data sourced from FactSet Research Systems Inc.
