January 13, 2026
S&P futures −0.2% after U.S. equities finished higher Monday, reversing an early dip. Small caps outperformed again, extending the early-2026 broadening / pro-cyclical rotation theme. Strength on Monday was seen in big tech, retail favorites, momentum leaders, metals, memory, semicaps, restaurants, staples, and industrial multis, while consumer finance lagged.
Overnight, Asian markets moved higher, led by Japan (+3%+) on renewed speculation around a snap election. European markets were little changed. Treasuries edged weaker (yields +~1 bp), the dollar +0.1%, gold −0.5%, silver +0.5%, Bitcoin +1.4%, and WTI +2.1% following Trump’s tariff threat tied to Iran.
The market remains largely in wait-and-see mode ahead of bank earnings and what is expected to be a noisy December CPI print. Geopolitics and trade are back in focus after Trump said any country doing business with Iran would face a 25% tariff on U.S. trade, raising questions about the durability of recent U.S.–China de-escalation. Fed-independence rhetoric continues to dominate headlines, though market reaction has been muted amid GOP pushback and skepticism the issue escalates. The growth repricing / cyclical rotation narrative remains a key bullish pillar for early 2026.
Today’s calendar: NFIB optimism, December CPI, $22B 30-year Treasury auction, Fed speakers Musalem and Barkin. A SCOTUS IEEPA tariff ruling is also possible.
Stock-Level Highlights
- JPM, BK, DAL — Reporting earnings this morning.
- MSFT — Trump said the company will make changes to prevent large consumer utility bills tied to AI buildout.
- MU — Warned the AI memory shortage could persist through 2028 (Digitimes).
- ABBV — Announced a pricing agreement with the Trump administration to avoid tariffs.
- CMG — Reaffirmed FY guidance and confidence in its 2026 strategic plan.
- ARGX — Higher after FDA accepted an additional Vyvgart application for priority review.
- RVTY — Shares boosted following a guidance update.
- TVTX — Fell after FDA requested additional clarity on clinical benefit for its kidney-disease therapy.
- PAR — Helped by a commercial agreement with PZZA.
U.S. equities finished modestly higher on Monday (Dow +0.17% | S&P 500 +0.16% | Nasdaq +0.26% | Russell 2000 +0.44%), ending slightly off intraday highs, with the S&P 500 logging another record close and extending gains from the first full week of 2026. Early weakness tied to concerns around Fed independence faded as markets stabilized following Chair Powell’s forceful rebuttal of a Justice Department investigation related to congressional testimony on Fed headquarters renovations. Pushback from several GOP lawmakers also helped reverse a brief “sell America” trade that pressured stocks, Treasuries, and the dollar early in the session.
Policy uncertainty remained elevated. Markets continued to digest the White House’s affordability and state-intervention push, including President Trump’s proposal for a one-year cap on credit-card interest rates at 10%, reinforcing “Main Street vs. Wall Street” narratives. Geopolitical risks also stayed in focus, with protests intensifying in Iran, Trump comments about potential U.S. options, discussions of further Russia sanctions, and ongoing diplomacy involving Greenland.
Factor performance reflected this backdrop: momentum and retail-favorite names outperformed, while value and minimum-volatility factors lagged. Cyclically sensitive areas such as industrial and precious metals, semicap equipment, aerospace & defense, and China tech were notable gainers, while financials, payments, managed care, airlines, trucking, oil services, refiners, apparel, hotels, and cruise lines underperformed.
In rates and FX, Treasuries weakened modestly with slight curve steepening as yields rose 1–2 bp, though the day’s 3-year and 10-year auctions both stopped through, signaling solid demand. The dollar index fell 0.3%. Gold rose 2.2%, silver surged 7.2%, Bitcoin futures gained 1.7%, and WTI crude slipped 0.6%.
There were no U.S. economic data releases Monday. Attention now turns to December CPI on Tuesday, the start of Q4 earnings season, extensive Fed speak through the week, and a potential Supreme Court decision on IEEPA tariffs as soon as Wednesday.
Sector Highlights
Sector results reflected a selective, pro-cyclical advance. Consumer Staples (+1.42%) led, followed by Industrials (+0.75%) and Materials (+0.74%), supported by metals and capital-goods strength. Technology (+0.35%), Real Estate (+0.23%), and Utilities (+0.19%) posted modest gains. Financials (−0.80%) and Energy (−0.66%) lagged amid policy uncertainty, while Communication Services, Consumer Discretionary, and Health Care finished little changed. Overall, the session reinforced the theme of market resilience and gradual broadening, even as policy and geopolitical risks remain elevated.
Financials
- Capital One Financial (COF), Synchrony Financial (SYF), American Express (AXP) — Declined after Trump proposed a one-year 10% cap on credit-card interest rates.
- Visa (V) and Mastercard (MA) — Also pressured on the same policy risk.
Information Technology
- Apple (AAPL) — Announced a multi-year partnership with Alphabet (GOOGL) to use Gemini models for AI features, including Siri.
- Alphabet (GOOGL) — Benefited from the Apple partnership; also highlighted in broader AI and advertising innovation discussions.
- Meta Platforms (META) — Reportedly preparing job cuts this week.
- Duolingo (DUOL) — Said Q4 bookings were at or above the high end of guidance; announced CFO transition.
Health Care
- Eli Lilly (LLY) — Reportedly exploring acquisition of France-based Abivax for ~$17.5B.
- UnitedHealth Group (UNH) — Reportedly under Senate investigation related to Medicare Advantage practices.
- Moderna (MRNA) — Guided preliminary FY25 revenue toward the high end of prior guidance.
- Edwards Lifesciences (EW) — Will not proceed with acquisition of JenaValve Technology due to regulatory opposition.
Consumer Discretionary
- Lululemon Athletica (LULU) — Guided Q4 EPS toward the high end of prior outlook.
- Five Below (FIVE) — Raised Q4 EPS forecast.
- Abercrombie & Fitch (ANF) — Narrowed Q4 and FY EPS guidance; revenue growth outlook below Street.
- Birkenstock (BIRK) — Preannounced FQ1 revenue slightly below consensus.
- Shake Shack (SHAK) — Preannounced Q4 revenue and comps below expectations.
- Boot Barn (BOOT) — Positively preannounced Q3 results and said Q4 started strong.
Consumer Staples
- US Foods (USFD) — Reaffirmed FY25 guidance.
- Dollar stores, grocers, and staples retailers broadly outperformed amid defensive rotation.
Energy
- Exxon Mobil (XOM) — Trump said he is leaning toward excluding Exxon from plans to rebuild Venezuela’s oil industry.
- Chevron (CVX) — Energy Secretary said the company sees a path to increasing Venezuelan production by ~50%.
Industrials
- Aerospace & defense and semicap equipment stocks outperformed as part of the ongoing pro-cyclical rotation.
Eco Data Releases | Tuesday January 13th, 2026
S&P 500 Constituent Earnings Announcements | Tuesday January 13th, 2026
Data sourced from FactSet Research Systems Inc.
