February 19, 2026
S&P futures are down 0.3% after Wednesday’s rally, which was led by NVIDIA (NVDA), Amazon (AMZN), software, energy, metals, banks, and restaurants. Defensives underperformed.
Overnight, Asian markets were higher, with South Korea up over 3% and Australia at a fresh record. European equities are down ~0.7%. Treasuries are slightly weaker (yields +1 bp). The dollar index is off 0.1%. Gold is flat, silver +1%, Bitcoin futures +0.9%, and WTI crude +1.2% following a 4.5% surge yesterday.
Geopolitics remain front and center. Reports indicate limited progress in U.S.–Iran talks, with speculation of a potential U.S.-led strike as soon as this weekend. The macro backdrop is otherwise unchanged, though markets continue to digest what many interpreted as a hawkish tilt in Wednesday’s January FOMC minutes. Flow dynamics remain a focus, with concerns about downside CTA convexity and elevated hedging demand, even as retail inflows—particularly into beaten-down software—remain strong.
Today’s data includes initial claims, December trade, Philly Fed manufacturing, and pending home sales. Fed speakers Bowman and Goolsbee are scheduled. Friday brings Q4 GDP, PCE inflation, flash PMIs, and final University of Michigan sentiment, along with a potential SCOTUS ruling on tariffs.
Earnings & Corporate Highlights
Post-Earnings Standouts
- Deere & Company (DE) – Beat and raised; cited construction and small ag tailwinds.
- eBay (EBAY) – Broad Q4 beat, better Q1 guide, announced $1.2B Depop acquisition from Etsy (ETSY).
- DoorDash (DASH) – Strong GOV momentum and improving profitability in new verticals.
- Figma (FIG) – Q4 acceleration and FY26 upside; AI product traction highlighted.
- Occidental Petroleum (OXY) – Q4 beat; FY26 capex guide below expectations.
Mixed / Lagging
- Booking Holdings (BKNG) – Strong Q4 bookings/EBITDA; Q1 EBITDA slightly light due to investments.
- Carvana (CVNA) – Weaker retail GPU pressured shares.
- Molson Coors (TAP) – Soft Q4; 2026 guidance below consensus.
- Avis Budget Group (CAR) – Weak Q4; flagged challenging backdrop.
- The Cheesecake Factory (CAKE) – Softer comps weighed on shares.
Other Notables
- OpenAI reportedly finalizing >$100B funding round at ~$850B valuation.
- Meta Platforms (META) planning smartwatch launch in 2026.
- Salesforce (CRM) to acquire Momentum (conversational AI platform).
- Live Nation Entertainment (LYV) must face certain antitrust claims.
- Blue Owl Capital (OWL) sold ~$1.4B of direct-lending assets to manage liquidity.
Overall tone is cautious following Wednesday’s risk rally, with geopolitical risk and earnings dispersion continuing to drive near-term volatility.
Wednesday’s advance (Dow +0.26% | S&P 500 +0.56% | Nasdaq +0.78% | Russell 2000 +0.45%) was supported by a firmer risk tone despite a backup in rates and a stronger dollar. Treasury yields rose ~3 bp across the curve (2-year 3.47%, 10-year 4.08%), while the dollar index climbed 0.6% to 97.73. Commodities were volatile: WTI crude surged 4.9% to $65.36 on renewed U.S.–Iran tension concerns, gold rose 2.0% back above $5,000, and silver jumped 5.5%. Bitcoin futures fell 2%.
Economic data leaned constructive. December durable goods orders fell 1.4% m/m (better than expected), while core capital goods orders rose 0.6%, topping consensus. Housing data surprised to the upside, with December starts at 1.404M SAAR versus 1.320M expected. January industrial production increased 0.7% m/m, beating forecasts.
January FOMC minutes were largely in line with expectations. Policymakers acknowledged uneven progress toward the 2% inflation goal and diminishing labor market downside risks, though some participants referenced the possibility of upward adjustments if inflation reaccelerates. Fed Governor Bowman highlighted inconsistencies across labor indicators.
Markets remain focused on Walmart earnings Thursday and a potential Supreme Court ruling on tariff authority Friday.
Wednesday’s session reflected improving risk appetite driven by short covering, software stabilization, and a sharp energy rally. Cyclicals and mega-cap tech outperformed while defensives lagged amid rising yields and dollar strength. Despite the stronger close, indices finished off midday highs, underscoring persistent volatility beneath the surface as investors balance solid macro data, hawkish-leaning Fed minutes, and geopolitical risk tied to oil markets.
Sector Highlights
Leadership rotated decisively toward cyclicals and growth.
Outperformers:
Energy (+2.00%), Consumer Discretionary (+1.00%), Technology (+0.97%), Financials (+0.78%), Materials (+0.77%)
Underperformers:
Utilities (-1.70%), Real Estate (-1.45%), Consumer Staples (-0.53%), Industrials (+0.01%), Healthcare (+0.21%), Communication Services (+0.31%)
Defensives lagged as yields rose and oil rallied. Big tech strength and short covering in high-beta names supported the broader tape, though major indices closed off midday highs.
Information Technology
- NVIDIA (NVDA) rose 1.6% after announcing a multi-year, multi-generational AI infrastructure partnership with Meta Platforms (META).
- Palantir Technologies (PLTR) gained 1.8% following an analyst upgrade tied to AI positioning.
- Analog Devices (ADI) beat on earnings with record data center orders and strong industrial demand.
- Cadence Design Systems (CDNS) gained 7.6% as guidance was viewed as conservative and AI-driven demand remained solid.
- Palo Alto Networks (PANW) fell 6.8% on concerns around NGS ARR upside.
- Axcelis Technologies (ACLS) dropped 16.7% on softer forward revenue outlook.
Financials
- Moody’s (MCO) climbed 6.5% on a Q4 beat and stronger FY26 EPS guidance.
- Global Payments (GPN) surged 16.5% after earnings beat and $2.5B buyback authorization.
- Global-e Online (GLBE) rallied 17% on accelerating revenue growth and strong free cash flow.
Energy
- Devon Energy (DVN) reported a Q4 beat and highlighted FCF optimization progress.
- Refiners and exploration names benefited from geopolitical-driven oil strength.
- HF Sinclair (DINO) fell 10.9% amid disclosure-related delays.
Consumer Discretionary
- Wingstop (WING) rose 10.8% on earnings and improved comp outlook.
- Caesars Entertainment (CZR) gained 13% on solid digital performance.
- Wendy’s (WEN) jumped 16.9% following activist developments tied to Trian.
- Crocs (CROX) slipped 1.7% after a downgrade citing weakening U.S. demand.
Healthcare
- Moderna (MRNA) rose 6.1% after the FDA initiated review of its seasonal influenza vaccine.
- Insulet (PODD) gained 4.8% on earnings beat and buyback expansion.
Industrials & Materials
- Republic Services (RSG) fell 2.0% on softer Environmental Solutions trends.
- Copper and aluminum names rallied alongside oil and precious metals strength.
Communication Services
- Snap Inc. (SNAP) added 3.2% after announcing direct revenue reached a $1B annualized run rate.
Eco Data Releases | Thursday February 19th, 2026
S&P 500 Constituent Earnings Announcements | Thursday February 19th, 2026
Data sourced from FactSet Research Systems Inc.
