ETFsector.com Daily Trading Outlook

S&P futures are up 0.7% and Nasdaq futures are up 2.1% Thursday morning, with memory and semis leading the rebound. The move follows Wednesday’s mixed session, when momentum lagged but broadening, reopening, cyclical, and consumer areas outperformed. Asian markets were mostly higher, led by South Korea and Japan, while Europe is up about 0.7%. Treasuries are little changed to slightly weaker after Wednesday’s rally, the dollar is down 0.1%, gold is flat, silver is off 0.8%, Bitcoin futures are up 2.9%, and WTI crude is down 1.3% after falling nearly 3.5% Wednesday.

The AI capex trade is back in focus after Micron delivered blowout results and guidance, pushing back against recent cyclicality concerns. Qualcomm’s investor-day commentary also helped sentiment, with a stronger FY29 outlook and data-center revenue target. The recent momentum unwind continues to look more technical and positioning-driven than a fundamental shift in the AI demand narrative. Lower oil is another support for risk sentiment and rates, with Gulf flows improving, Brent falling below pre-conflict levels, and Iraq warning it could leave OPEC if its production quota is not increased. Fed bank stress-test results were largely a non-event, though dividend increases from several banks helped sentiment.

Economic Calendar

Today brings May personal income and spending, including PCE inflation, along with initial claims and durable goods. Treasury will auction $44B of 7-year notes. Fed’s Williams and Goolsbee speak after the close, with Goolsbee recently leaning hawkish on sticky services inflation. Friday brings the May trade balance, final University of Michigan sentiment and inflation expectations, and remarks from Kashkari.

Company News

• MU: Higher after fiscal Q3 results and Q4 guidance topped elevated expectations. Management said tight market conditions could persist beyond 2027 and noted 16 signed strategic customer agreements.
• QCOM: Stronger after investor-day commentary included a $15B FY29 data-center revenue target and four hyperscaler wins.
• JPM / GS / MS / WFC: Announced dividend increases following Fed stress tests.
• JEF: Lower after earnings, with takeaways pointing to elevated expectations.
• TECH: To be acquired by Merck KGaA in an $11.3B deal.
• ESTC: Confirmed plans to cut headcount by 7%.
• FUL: Lower after earnings, with scrutiny around weaker pricing realization and no update on a potential AMS deal.

U.S. equities finished mixed Wednesday as stocks struggled to hold earlier gains following Tuesday’s momentum-driven selloff. The Dow rose 0.35%, the S&P 500 slipped 0.10%, the Nasdaq fell 0.43%, and the Russell 2000 gained 0.37%. Energy was the biggest drag as WTI crude dropped 4.4% to $69.97, breaking below $70. Semis and memory remained weak, while industrial metals, precious metals, alts, and investment banks also lagged. Treasuries rallied sharply with curve bull flattening, with the 2-year yield down 5 bp to 4.15%, the 10-year down 9 bp to 4.40%, and the 30-year down 8 bp to 4.86%. The dollar rose 0.2%, gold fell 3.2% to just above $4,000/oz, silver dropped 6.4%, and Bitcoin futures declined 4.1%.

The macro narrative remained centered on the inability of lower yields and lower oil to fully offset pressure from the momentum, semi, and memory unwind. The market continues to view the recent AI-linked selloff as largely technical and concentration-driven rather than a fundamental break, though elevated volatility, quarter-end rebalancing, AI talent competition, and tighter financial conditions remain overhangs. A strong rate rally helped some cyclicals and rate-sensitive groups, but hawkish Fed expectations persisted, with markets still pricing roughly 33 bp of hikes through year-end. New home sales disappointed, falling to a 580K annualized pace versus consensus for 640K, the weakest since January 2026. The $70B 5-year Treasury auction tailed 0.7 bp, marking the eighth straight tail for that maturity. Investors now turn to the Fed’s annual bank stress-test results, Thursday’s personal income and spending report with PCE inflation, initial claims, durable goods, and the 7-year auction.

Sector performance was mixed. Industrials led, up 1.18%, followed by Utilities +1.05%, Consumer Discretionary +0.80%, Healthcare +0.79%, Consumer Staples +0.56%, and Materials +0.33%. Financials fell 0.30%, Real Estate declined 0.38%, Communication Services slipped 0.61%, Technology lost 0.64%, and Energy was the clear laggard, down 1.73%. Better-performing groups included builders, retail, travel and leisure, airlines, rideshare, machinery, multis, regional banks, MedTech, biotech, household products, and paper/packaging. Laggards included energy, semis, memory, industrial metals, precious metals, alts, investment banks, software, and AI-linked names.

Information Technology

• CBRS -19.5%: Q1 revenue and adjusted EBITDA beat, with strong y/y growth in Hardware and Cloud. FY26 core revenue guidance was ahead on strong demand and better cloud pricing, but investors focused on guidance for shrinking gross margins.
• QCOM -3.3%: Agreed to acquire AI software company Modular in a deal valued at roughly $3.9B, expected to close in 2H. Qualcomm is also reportedly in talks to provide custom chip-design services to ByteDance.
• AVGO: Unveiled an AI chip designed for OpenAI.
• VRNS +6.5%: Bloomberg reported Varonis is weighing a potential sale after receiving takeover interest from private equity firms including Blackstone, Thoma Bravo, and Vista Equity Partners.
• TWLO +2.3%: Assumed buy at Goldman Sachs, which cited Twilio’s ability to benefit from shifts in the customer-service market and potential for gross-margin expansion.
• PAYX -1.7%: Fiscal Q4 results were slightly ahead and initial FY27 guidance was broadly in line, though analysts flagged scrutiny around Management Solutions growth and Paycor contribution.

Communication Services

• GOOGL: Set to replace Verizon in the Dow Jones Industrial Average, though shares remained pressured by additional AI talent departures, with two more Google AI staffers leaving for Anthropic.

Consumer Discretionary

• HTZ -41.0%: Lowered Q2 adjusted EBITDA guidance to $50–80M, citing unexpected used-car market weakness. The company also filed for a $100M common stock offering.
• KBH +16.7%: Fiscal Q2 EPS missed while revenue beat. Deliveries were ahead, but average closing price, orders, order value, backlog, and backlog value were light. Analysts highlighted Bay Area and build-to-order tailwinds, with potential margin upside into 2027.
• NKE: Announced a CFO transition and said fiscal Q4 results should be generally in line with prior guidance.
• GME: Plans to scrap a performance award previously granted to CEO Ryan Cohen after it drew scrutiny.
• WEN +25.7%: Announced CFO Ken Cook’s departure, with former Potbelly executive Steve Cirulis appointed CFO and chief strategy officer. Shares also benefited from retail enthusiasm on WallStreetBets.

Consumer Staples

• Consumer Staples +0.56%: Outperformed as defensive areas held up better, though there were no major company-specific updates in the group.

Energy

• Energy -1.73%: Lagged as WTI crude broke below $70 amid continued signs of Strait of Hormuz normalization and lower geopolitical risk premium.

Financials

• MS: Morgan Stanley’s private-credit fund became the latest to cap redemptions at 5%, compared with withdrawal requests of 11.6%.
• TOST +6.2%: To be added to the S&P MidCap 400.

Healthcare

• NTRA +10.7%: Obtained Signatera approval in Japan for colorectal cancer and expects to launch commercially in Japan by the end of 2026.
• ICLR: Takeaways highlighted strong book-to-bill trends.
• Healthcare +0.79%: Outperformed on strength in MedTech and biotech.

Industrials

• CCXI +15.2%: Agility Robotics agreed to go public via SPAC in a $2.5B merger, expected to generate more than $620M of gross proceeds, including $420M from the Churchill XI trust account and roughly $200M from a common-stock PIPE led by Foxconn.
• PRIM: Remained under pressure after cutting guidance on additional renewables cost overruns and delays, and announcing its COO departure.
• FLS -8.8%: Downgraded to hold from buy at TD Cowen, which said the setup into results is difficult and the outlook likely needs to be lowered due to challenged revenue growth.
• FDX: Post-earnings laggard despite largely positive sell-side takeaways, with some focus on a high bar, spin-related noise, and the shift to calendar-year guidance.
• HONAV: Set to join the S&P 500.

Materials

• WOR: Weaker after a fiscal Q4 miss.
• Materials +0.33%: Finished higher despite weakness in industrial and precious metals names.

Utilities

• RUN +12.5%: Announced an agreement with Tesla and Renew Home to deliver more than 16 GW of flexible energy capacity to hyperscalers and utilities.
• Utilities +1.05%: Outperformed as lower yields supported defensive and rate-sensitive groups.

Eco Data Releases | Thursday June 25^th, 2026

S&P 500 Constituent Earnings Announcements | Thursday June 25^th, 2026

Data sourced from FactSet Research Systems Inc.