U.S. equities are little changed Tuesday morning as a modest rebound in AI and semiconductor shares competes with persistently high Treasury yields and another rise in crude oil. At 5:06 a.m. ET, Dow futures were down 0.07%, S&P 500 futures were down 0.04% and Nasdaq 100 futures were up 0.06%. Monday’s cash session was broadly weaker: the S&P 500 fell 0.77%, the Nasdaq declined 0.92%, the Dow lost 0.67% and the Russell 2000 fell 0.69%, with the S&P posting its largest one-day percentage decline since late August.
Treasury yields continued higher Monday, with the 2-year up 8 basis points to 4.93%, the 10-year up 7 basis points to 5.23% and the 30-year up 6 basis points to 5.55%. The 10-year traded as high as roughly 5.27% overnight, near its highest level since 2007, as investors price a longer period of restrictive monetary policy amid resilient growth and elevated energy-driven inflation risk. Futures markets currently imply roughly a 70% probability of another Fed rate increase in October.
The dollar strengthened Monday alongside U.S. yields. The DXY rose 0.24 to 101.21, while the euro declined 0.12% to $1.1370. Sterling edged 0.15% higher to $1.3251, while the dollar gained 0.11% to ¥157.41 and EUR/JPY was essentially flat at ¥178.97. The dollar remains firm this morning as higher U.S. yields continue to support rate differentials; the euro has traded near a three-month low overnight.
Commodities remain a major cross-asset driver. November WTI crude rose $0.55, or 0.60%, Monday to $92.96 and is trading around $94 this morning, with oil extending gains for a second session as U.S.-Iran negotiations remain stalled. Brent has moved above $106. Persistent energy strength is reinforcing the market’s higher-for-longer inflation narrative. December gold plunged $167.40, or 3.87%, to $4,153.80, as rising real and nominal yields and a stronger dollar reduced demand for the non-yielding metal. Spot gold traded near a seven-week low around $4,125 overnight.
Today’s economic calendar has two important 10:00 a.m. ET releases. The BLS publishes August JOLTS, following July’s 7.3 million job openings, while the Conference Board releases its September Consumer Confidence Index. JOLTS will be closely watched for evidence that labor demand is slowing enough to offset recent inflation concerns. Several Fed officials also speak today: Vice Chair for Supervision Michelle Bowman at 11:00 a.m., Governor Michael Barr at 12:40 p.m., New York Fed President John Williams at 2:00 p.m., and Governor Christopher Waller at 3:00 p.m.
The broader macro focus remains Wednesday’s PCE inflation and ADP employment data and Friday’s September employment report. With Treasury yields already above 5% and energy costs elevated, data that confirm strong growth or sticky inflation could reinforce expectations for additional Fed tightening.
S&P 500 Sector Highlights
Monday’s weakness was broad, with just three of 11 sectors higher. Consumer Staples +0.40%, Health Care +0.29% and Energy +0.22% were the only positive sectors. Relative outperformers also included Real Estate -0.38%, Utilities -0.65%, Technology -0.70% and Materials -0.74%, while Communication Services -1.67%, Consumer Discretionary -1.58%, Financials -1.14% and Industrials -1.00% led the declines. Breadth deteriorated sharply, with declining stocks outnumbering advancers by 3.15:1 on the NYSE and 2.55:1 on the Nasdaq, confirming that Monday’s selloff extended well beyond the major growth indexes.
Information Technology
- Nvidia (NVDA) is up roughly 0.7% premarket after gaining 1.7% Monday. Nvidia’s board authorized an additional $150 billion of share repurchases, lifting remaining authorization to $235 billion through fiscal 2028. The company described the increase as the largest share-repurchase authorization in history, underscoring the cash generation coming from AI infrastructure demand even as higher interest rates pressure growth-stock valuations.
- Marvell Technology (MRVL), Micron Technology (MU) and Broadcom (AVGO) are each up roughly 1% premarket, recovering part of Monday’s semiconductor selloff. Micron reports fiscal fourth-quarter results Wednesday after the close, making the report an important near-term read on HBM, DRAM and broader AI-related memory demand.
Communication Services
- Meta Platforms (META) remains in focus after falling nearly 5% Monday. Meta hired MongoDB CEO CJ Desai to lead its newly established enterprise AI platform business, extending its AI strategy beyond consumer applications such as Muse into enterprise software. MongoDB (MDB) fell roughly 18% following Desai’s departure.
- Meta CEO Mark Zuckerberg is also among the technology executives expected to meet with President Trump today alongside Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang, Anthropic CEO Dario Amodei and OpenAI President Greg Brockman for discussions focused on AI development and regulation.
Consumer Discretionary
- CarMax (KMX) is up roughly 4% premarket after reporting fiscal second-quarter adjusted EPS of $1.16 versus roughly $0.73 expected. Revenue increased about 20% to $7.9 billion, while combined retail and wholesale used-vehicle unit sales rose 15%. The results offer a constructive read on auto demand despite elevated financing rates, although gross profit per used retail vehicle declined year over year.
- Carnival (CCL) reports fiscal third-quarter results this morning, with its earnings call scheduled for 10:00 a.m. ET. Pricing, booking trends, onboard spending and fuel costs should be central to the outlook, particularly with crude prices again moving higher.
- Vail Resorts (MTN) is modestly lower premarket after reporting fiscal 2026 results Monday evening. Full-year net income fell to $147.5 million from $280.0 million, while Resort Reported EBITDA declined to $745.7 million from $844.1 million. Advance pass-product unit sales for the upcoming North American ski season were down approximately 12%, while sales dollars were down roughly 6%.
Consumer Staples
- PepsiCo (PEP) is down roughly 0.7% premarket after JPMorgan downgraded the shares to Neutral from Overweight. Consumer Staples nevertheless led Monday’s market as investors rotated toward defensive earnings profiles amid the rise in Treasury yields and deterioration in market breadth.
Health Care
- Summit Therapeutics (SMMT) is up more than 22% premarket after AstraZeneca (AZN) agreed to invest $2 billion in the biotechnology company and collaborate on clinical studies combining their cancer treatments. The partnership includes trials involving Summit’s ivonescimab and AstraZeneca oncology assets and gives Summit additional capital while allowing both companies to retain rights to their respective drugs.
Industrials
- Boeing (BA) remains in focus after falling 6.9% Monday. The FAA has delayed certification of the 737 MAX 10 following the discovery of a software issue affecting automated flight guidance in certain landing scenarios. Boeing is developing a software update, while regulators are assessing the issue through a Corrective Action Review Board.
Financials
- Jefferies Financial Group (JEF) reported stronger third-quarter earnings as record equities-trading revenue and improved advisory and equity-underwriting activity offset weakness in asset management. Asset-management fees and investment-return revenue declined to $34 million from $84 million a year earlier, while the broader capital-markets businesses benefited from improving transaction activity.
- JPMorgan Chase (JPM), Bank of America (BAC), Citigroup (C) and Wells Fargo (WFC) remain caught between a steeper yield curve and the risk that Treasury yields above 5% eventually restrain loan demand and credit quality. Financials fell 1.14% Monday despite the increase in rates, suggesting investors are increasingly focused on the growth and credit implications of tighter financial conditions.
Energy
- Exxon Mobil (XOM), Chevron (CVX) and ConocoPhillips (COP) remain supported by crude’s advance. Energy was one of only three S&P 500 sectors to rise Monday, and WTI is again approaching $94 this morning as uncertainty surrounding U.S.-Iran negotiations maintains a geopolitical premium in crude.
