Technology Attempts a Rebound as Oil and Treasury Yields Retreat
U.S. equity futures are rebounding Monday after Friday’s sharp AI-driven selloff, with Dow futures +0.52%, S&P 500 futures +0.52% and Nasdaq-100 futures +0.89% as of roughly 5:15 a.m. ET. Friday’s session left the S&P 500 down 1.82%, Nasdaq Composite down 2.86% and Dow down 1.09%, with the Nasdaq posting its largest one-day decline since early June. The immediate catalyst this morning is less-negative rather than decisively bullish: AI shares are stabilizing after October’s valuation and financing reset, while falling oil prices and modestly lower long-term Treasury yields provide some relief to discount rates. The Nasdaq-100 lost more than $2.5 trillion of market value during October as investors questioned both the returns and increasingly the financing structure behind AI capital expenditures.
The cross-asset backdrop is more supportive than Friday’s close. Your data showed the 2-year Treasury yield falling 6 bp to 4.59% and the 10-year falling 5 bp to 4.93% Friday, while DXY slipped to 101.92. This morning the 10-year is near 4.92%, with long-end yields easing as oil retreats. WTI, which finished Friday at $102.83, is down more than 3% toward roughly $100–101 as Iranian and Qatari officials continue talks aimed at reducing Middle East hostilities. That reverses part of the inflation premium that had built into crude and should provide some near-term relief to rate-sensitive equity valuations. Gold is also rebounding after Friday’s unusual 3.4% decline, when the Technology rout contributed to cash-raising and forced liquidation across precious metals.
Today’s macro calendar centers on October manufacturing activity. The S&P Global Manufacturing PMI is due at 9:45 a.m. ET, followed at 10:00 by the ISM Manufacturing PMI, where consensus is approximately 54.6 versus 54.5 previously. The ISM prices-paid index remains particularly relevant after September PCE and the recent oil spike, with consensus around 77 versus 77.9. September construction spending is also due at 10:00, with consensus near +0.4% m/m versus +0.9% previously. ISM confirms that its October Manufacturing report is scheduled for 10:00 a.m. today, while Census confirms the September construction-spending release at the same time. The week’s larger macro catalyst is Friday’s October employment report, while Tuesday’s midterm elections add a separate source of policy and volatility risk.
Sector Highlights
Friday’s tape was a Technology-centered selloff rather than an indiscriminate liquidation. Energy +1.91%, Consumer Staples +1.38%, Utilities +0.64%, Health Care +0.43%, Real Estate +0.15% and Materials +0.04% finished higher. Financials fell 0.74%, Consumer Discretionary 0.86%, Communication Services 1.11% and Industrials 1.57%, but each still materially outperformed Technology’s 4.24% decline.
Breadth nevertheless deteriorated sharply, with NYSE decliners leading 1.72:1 and Nasdaq decliners 2.97:1. That distinction is important: Friday began as a concentrated reassessment of AI economics but spread far enough through the Nasdaq to become a broader growth-stock liquidation. Semiconductor weakness was particularly severe, with the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index down roughly 7.2%; Intel fell 28.6%, AMD 10.9% and Nvidia 4.2%. At the same time, positive returns across Energy, Staples, Utilities and Health Care indicate investors were still willing to own equities where valuations and earnings streams were less dependent on the AI capital-spending cycle. This morning’s rebound therefore represents an initial test of whether Technology can stabilize without reversing that broader rotation.
Company-Specific News by GICS Sector
Information Technology
- AAPL (-1.23%) — Apple reports after today’s close in the first earnings call led by new CEO John Ternus. Consensus looks for roughly $113.4 billion of fiscal fourth-quarter revenue, up about 11%, and $29.0 billion of net income. Investors will focus on strong initial iPhone 18 demand against rising memory costs, slower expected Services growth and Apple’s strategy for monetizing AI without matching the infrastructure spending of its hyperscale peers. The stock is modestly lower in premarket trading.
- INTC (-28.60%) — Intel is up only modestly premarket after Friday’s historic collapse. The company forecast quarterly revenue below expectations and said it does not expect positive cash flow this year, intensifying concerns around the cost of its manufacturing expansion and the durability of PC demand. Friday’s reaction also spread materially into the broader semiconductor and hardware complex.
- OKTA (-6.14%) — Okta is up roughly 3.6% premarket after S&P Dow Jones Indices said the identity-management company will join the S&P 500, replacing Kenvue. The index addition provides a mechanical demand catalyst after Friday’s broader software selloff.
- PLTR (-6.27%) — Palantir reports after the close following Friday’s sharp decline. The report will provide another high-profile test of whether investors remain willing to pay premium valuations for demonstrated AI-related revenue growth after last week’s reset in companies where spending and financing requirements overwhelmed near-term earnings strength.
Consumer Staples
- EL (+0.39%) — Estée Lauder raised its fiscal-2027 outlook this morning as demand for premium skincare and fragrances remained resilient. The company now expects 4%–5.5% organic sales growth, up from 3%–5%, and adjusted EPS of $3.20–$3.45, versus its previous $3.10–$3.35 range. The stronger outlook provides evidence that higher-income discretionary consumption remains comparatively firm even as broader consumer confidence remains weak.
Consumer Discretionary
- MAR (-0.09%) — Marriott International reports before the open. The report provides a useful read on premium travel demand, room rates and corporate travel as investors assess whether higher-income services consumption is holding up better than goods demand heading into year-end.
Health Care
- VRTX (+3.50%) — Vertex Pharmaceuticals reports after the close following a strong Friday session that pushed the stock near a 52-week high. Investors will focus on continued cystic-fibrosis franchise growth and the contribution from newer products as Health Care increasingly attracts capital away from more valuation-sensitive growth exposures.
Energy
- FANG (+2.74%) — Diamondback Energy reports after today’s close after benefiting Friday from the Energy sector’s relative strength. The earnings setup has changed materially this morning as WTI retreats more than 3% on renewed diplomatic hopes around Iran, making production discipline, costs and capital-return policy more important than another extension of the recent commodity-price tailwind.
