July 1, 2025
Markets are off slightly Tuesday morning following Monday’s strong finish, which saw the S&P 500 and Nasdaq notch fresh record closes. The S&P ended its best quarter since Q4 2023, supported by resilient economic data, easing inflation concerns, and improved visibility on trade and policy developments. Treasuries continued to firm with some curve flattening, as the 10-year yield declined for the sixth time in the past seven sessions. The dollar weakened further, down 0.4% and near its lowest levels, with notable softness versus the yen. Gold rallied 1.6% on safe-haven flows, while Bitcoin futures slipped 1.2%. Oil was flat but recovered from earlier losses.
Trade headlines remain in focus with just a week to go before the July 9 reciprocal tariff deadline. The Financial Times reported the White House may be pivoting toward phased trade deals and preliminary agreements to meet the deadline, suggesting a potential softening from Monday’s tougher tone. Bloomberg added that the U.S. and EU are nearing agreement on a universal 10% tariff, with sector-specific exemptions still under negotiation. Meanwhile, Japan reaffirmed its stance on protecting agricultural interests, pushing back against U.S. demands to open its rice market. Trump has indicated countries unwilling to comply may simply receive notice of their assigned tariff levels.
On the legislative front, the Senate continues debating the “Big, Beautiful Bill,” with nearly 20 hours of amendment activity behind it. The outcome remains uncertain, with key votes from Senators Murkowski and Collins likely to decide its fate. Senators Paul and Tillis are reportedly leaning no, leaving the vote margin tight.
Attention now shifts to Fed Chair Powell’s appearance at the Sintra central bank conference in Portugal. While he’s not expected to depart from his recent patient tone, markets will be watching closely for any acknowledgment of internal Fed divisions or hints at the September rate cut currently priced in. Today’s data calendar is busy, featuring ISM manufacturing, final PMI, May JOLTS job openings, and construction spending. The June jobs cycle picks up tomorrow with ADP private payrolls, followed by Friday’s nonfarm payrolls report, where consensus is centered around a cooling print near +115K and a slight uptick in unemployment.
Corporate News:
TSLA down premarket after a Trump social media post; also concerns over possible Q2 delivery decline.
AMZN reportedly nearing a milestone where robots outnumber humans in its warehouses.
BA announced CFO transition, effective August 15.
PRGS beat and raised on strong ARR and net retention; acquiring AI firm Nuclia.
WOLF filed for Chapter 11, expects to emerge in Q3
U.S. equities closed higher on Monday (Dow +0.63%, S&P 500 +0.52%, Nasdaq +0.47%, Russell 2000 +0.12%), with the S&P 500 and Nasdaq both setting new record highs. Markets were buoyed by trade optimism, signs of monetary policy stability, and easing fiscal uncertainty. A late-session rally followed news that Canada had rescinded its digital services tax, reviving trade negotiations with the U.S. Meanwhile, the European Union appeared open to a U.S. deal involving a 10% universal tariff, provided exemptions were granted for key sectors such as semiconductors and aerospace. However, U.S.-Japan trade relations appeared to deteriorate after Trump threatened new tariffs over agricultural imports.
In Washington, the Senate continued to process amendments to the “Big, Beautiful Bill,” which includes provisions affecting clean energy and electric vehicle incentives. Revisions to the bill removed prior uncertainty for some manufacturers while accelerating the sunset of EV subsidies—developments that reverberated across related equity segments. The House remains a hurdle for final passage amid ongoing GOP divisions.
Economic data remained mixed. June’s Dallas Fed Manufacturing Index and Chicago PMI both showed contractionary signals. The Chicago report also revealed the highest prices paid since May 2022, pointing to persistent cost pressures. Federal Reserve commentary remained cautious. Atlanta Fed President Bostic reaffirmed expectations for a single 2025 rate cut, while Chicago’s Goolsbee warned of downside risks but rejected the notion of stagflation. Markets now look ahead to Thursday’s June employment report, with consensus calling for job gains of 115K and a slight uptick in the unemployment rate to 4.3%. Fed Chair Powell is set to speak Tuesday at the ECB’s Sintra conference, a potential catalyst for rate expectations.
The broader macro environment was marked by a weaker U.S. dollar (-0.6%), firmer Treasuries with a flattening yield curve, and moderate moves across commodities. Gold rose 0.6%, aided by safe-haven demand and inflation hedging, while WTI crude slipped 0.6% amid expectations for a new OPEC+ supply increase. Bitcoin futures added 0.4%, supported by growing clarity around crypto regulation and product expansion in Europe.
Information Technology (+0.98%)
Apple (AAPL) +2.0%: Reported to be exploring the use of Anthropic or OpenAI to upgrade Siri, signaling a shift away from in-house AI development.
Oracle (ORCL) +4.0%: Upgraded to Buy at Stifel, citing strong capex trends and rising RPO as drivers of cloud growth.
Palantir (PLTR) +4.3%: Announced AI-focused federal partnership with Accenture.
Hewlett Packard Enterprise (HPE) +11.1%: Rose sharply after DOJ settled its antitrust case regarding the Juniper acquisition.
Financials (+0.86%)
Goldman Sachs (GS) +2.4%: Seen as a key winner from the Fed’s stress tests, expected to benefit from a lower capital buffer and stronger capital return profile.
Robinhood (HOOD) +12.8%: Launched tokenized stocks and ETFs in the EU; also introduced Layer 2 blockchain and new crypto products including perpetual futures and staking.
Healthcare (+0.63%)
Moderna (MRNA) +1.6%: Announced strong Phase 3 results for its seasonal flu vaccine, with only mild adverse effects.
Real Estate (+0.65%)
Sector gained on falling rates and a flatter yield curve; no major company-level drivers reported.
Consumer Discretionary (-0.86%)
Whirlpool (WHR) +5.5%: Upgraded to Buy by Longbow on expectations of tariff-driven price and margin recovery in 2H25.
NEXTracker (NXT) -6.8%: Declined as revised budget bill proposed faster phase-out of clean energy tax credits.
Tesla (TSLA): Lower (not quoted), as reconciliation bill language threatens EV subsidy support.
Industrials (+0.50%)
Stanley Black & Decker (SWK): COO Christopher Nelson named next CEO, effective October 1.
Joby Aviation: Completed successful VTOL flight trials in Dubai, highlighting emerging air mobility progress.
Communication Services (+0.34%)
Meta Platforms (META): Restructuring AI division to pursue “superintelligence,” reportedly hiring top researchers.
TikTok (US operations): Trump said a group of wealthy investors is preparing a bid, adding M&A speculation.
Materials (+0.10%)
Tronox (TROX) -10.2%: Downgraded by BMO Capital on signs of weakening demand and estimate risk.
Energy (-0.66%)
First Solar (FSLR) +8.8%: Gained as the Senate bill removed uncertainty around the 45X production tax credit, allowing it to retain higher incentives.
Broader sector pressured by OPEC+ supply expectations and weaker crude prices
Eco Data Releases | Friday July 1st, 2025
S&P 500 Constituent Earnings Announcements | Friday July 1st, 2025
No constituents report today
Data sourced from FactSet Research Systems Inc.
