Macro Trend Signals: Commodities Prices at a Key Pivot, Implications for Energy and Materials Sector Performance
XLE and XLB are bouncing, but the price action in the Bloomberg Commodities Index isn’t supportive of sustained outperformancer
XLB
ETFsector.com Daily Trading Outlook, July 17, 2024
Rotation to high-beta cyclicals and a Russell 2000 break-out add fuel for the Bull.
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ETFsector.com Daily Trading Outlook, July 2, 2024
Equities opened July (and the second half of the year) on a positive note and with a familiar profile. The Nasdaq Composite paced gains for large cap. equities adding 0.83% while the S&P 500 was up 0.27% and the Dow Industrials gained 0.13%. ISM Manufacturing data came in at a 48.5 reading (below 50 is
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XLI Industrials SPDR July Outlook—Oversold conditions are at near-term wash out levels for XLI and we continue to be positioned for a bounce.
We are remaining long XLI as it is deeply oversold near-term and tactically attractive if we see profit taking from L/T winning sectors XLK and XLC
XLB Materials SPDR July Outlook—Weakness across the Commodities complex has had a negative effect on the Materials Sector and has us at a 0% allocation for July in our model
XLB has fallen to new lows without any signs of positive divergence or bullish reversal at the industry level.
XLE Energy SPDR July Outlook—Energy stocks and Crude have shown signs of bullish reversal in the 2nd half of June.
XLE is a preferrable exposure to XLB in our work and has triggered a tactical buy signal.
SPY July Outlook—The Bull Market for the S&P 500 Index and Growth Factor Leadership are obvious, and we are aligned with those trends for July
Price action, Fed policy and trends in US yields and global commodities prices continue to support Growth leadership and the continuation of the current bull trend for US equities
ETFsector.com Daily Trading Outlook, June 18, 2024
Surveying the daily news and commentary, we continue to see more concerns among the bearish crowd that we are in a bubble. We politely disagree. Historically there is often consolidation heading into November during presidential election years, but we are in a clear bull market with well-defined leadership at present.
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US Sector Historical Return Profiles During Interest Rate (US 10yr Yield) Downtrends
The historical sector roadmap for expected returns during US 10yr Yield downtrends
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US Sector Historical Return Profiles During Interest Rate (US 10yr Yield) Uptrends
At ETFsector.com we provide tools and insights to help our community appreciate and understand the benefits of sector investing. We are pleased to offer the second installment of our deep history Sector Trend Studies to provide you with a deeper understanding of the historical behavior of these groups of businesses in relation to broad market
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