With earnings growth above 13% and rates hovering in the low-4% range, markets sit at a crossroads. Stabilizing yields favor selective buying of oversold Growth, while tariff risks and sticky inflation argue for defensive balance. The bond market remains the ultimate arbiter of risk appetite
Sector Crossroads: Defensive Rotation or Buying Oversold Growth Read More »
Markets are rewarding cash flows over narratives as earnings beat expectations and manufacturing improves. Leadership is broadening toward industrials, financials, and energy, while software and speculative growth remain under pressure. Rotation, not recession, continues to define the February tape
Equity leadership remains concentrated where earnings visibility, AI-driven productivity, and capital discipline intersect. As inflation proves sticky and policy risk rises, sector performance is diverging sharply—rewarding cash-flow durability and punishing balance-sheet stress, rate sensitivity, and regulatory uncertainty.
January 19, 2026 Rising tariffs alongside higher interest rates create a defensive problem that cannot be solved by simply rotating into Utilities, Real Estate, or broad Consumer Staples. In this regime, investors are not being compensated for yield or earnings stability alone. What the market has historically rewarded instead are pricing power, short cash-flow duration,
Rethinking What Playing Defense Looks Like When Inflation is a Risk: A Sector Playbook Read More »
Early 2026 is defined by late-cycle rotation rather than regime change. Broadening earnings, rate volatility, and improving productivity favor cyclical Value sectors tactically, while structural Growth leadership remains intact. Selectivity and balance—not binary style bets—are increasingly critical as expansion matures
Interest-rate direction is a key driver of sector leadership. Falling or stable yields support Technology and Communication Services by easing valuation pressure on long-duration earnings. Rising or volatile rates tend to favor Financials, Energy, and cyclically oriented Industrials, where cash flows are nearer-term and valuations less sensitive to discount-rate shifts.
2026 Sector Investing Outlook: Will the Technology Boom Dominate another Year? Read More »
With November CPI confirming a clear downshift in inflation—core inflation slowing to its weakest pace since early 2021—and multiple Fed officials openly acknowledging that policy remains restrictive, disinflation has become the dominant macro force shaping sector leadership. History suggests that periods of falling inflation do not lift all boats equally. Instead, they tend to reward
Sector Strategy Outlook: Sector Investing in a Disinflationary Environment Read More »
December 14, 2025 U.S. equities are closing the year at an inflection point that feels deceptively calm. Markets have absorbed a December 25 bp Federal Reserve rate cut and a renewed Treasury bill purchase program designed to stabilize reserves, while risk assets have responded with improved sentiment, better breadth, and renewed inflows. On the surface,
Forward Prospects for Equities: Can the Fed Do Enough This Time? Read More »
December 7, 2025 The crosscurrents shaping the U.S. equity market today are exactly what investors expect from a late-cycle environment: strong earnings, softening labor, political noise around monetary policy, and a macro backdrop that is neither hot enough to reignite inflation nor cool enough to derail growth. In that setting, sector leadership is no longer
November 30, 2025 November delivered one of the most dramatic sentiment swings of the year. U.S. equities bounced sharply off early-month lows, with the S&P 500 rallying ~3.5% over three sessions heading into Thanksgiving week and rate-cut odds for December climbing from <30% to over 80%. Treasury yields fell 3–4 bp across several sessions, and
Narrations of a Sector ETF Operator: Is a Dovish Fed Enough to Sustain the Bull? Read More »
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