August 24, 2025 On Friday, we talked about the retracement of Growth shares playing out over the near-term and concluded with the point that the Fed would play a pivotal role in the 2nd half of the year. We only needed to wait hours for Powell’s Jackson Hole speech to move the markets. This time, […]
Narrations of a Sector ETF Operator | The Fed has Entered the Chat Read More »
August 17, 2025 In last week’s missive, we noted the narrowing breadth of the bull market as the number of S&P 500 constituents trading above their 200-day moving average remains below 60% which is a lackluster reading with the Index recording several all-time high closes since the beginning of July. We’ve also noted that since
Narrations of a Sector ETF Operator | The Berkshire Backstop Read More »
August 10, 2025 Equities continue to shrug off challenges from escalating tariffs, wars in Ukraine and the Middle East, a rate-locked housing market and a sluggish economy. AI is living up to expectations as companies like Palantir synergize impressive results from AI and its data collection software. Semiconductor stocks are retesting highs. Mag7 stocks have
Narrations of a Sector ETF Operator | Life on the Straight and Narrow Read More »
August 3, 2025 Last week we noted that the S&P 500 had made it into overbought territory. We ended last week with some selling on weak employment data which is obviously untrue. Regardless of statistical truth, all the rational participants in the stock market need to keep in mind that feelings are real. If we
Narrations of a Sector ETF Operator | Time for Some Correction Protection? Read More »
July 27, 2025 The Bull remains in control of the tape as July winds down. A series of new all-time high prints for the S&P 500 (chart below) and the Nasdaq have printed. Our oscillators studies (chart, panes 2 and 3) have hit highs for the past 12-months as well, registering an overbought condition on
Narrations of a Sector ETF Operator | It’s Getting (Over)Bought in Here! Read More »
July 20, 2025 As July ticks on with equities sitting near all-timer highs, there’s a temptation to worry. The volatility of March and April has subsided with the VIX and MOVE indices for equity and bond volatility retracing to pre-decline levels (chart below). The sharp rotation into min vol. stocks, bonds and ex-US equities has
Narrations of a Sector ETF Operator | Are Investors Being Complacent? Read More »
July 13, 2025 As the S&P 500 consolidates just below fresh all-time highs, we are seeing some near-term buying in the Small Cap. space. The chart below shows various Russell and S&P benchmark indices by size and their performance against the broad market R3K since the April 7th low for equities. The Russell 2000 briefly
July 6, 2025 The S&P 500 has broken out to new all-time highs in July, and we are finally seeing a change in the behavior of the average stock. For most of 2024 a primary concern for the bull was the lack of upside participation at the stock level despite a top line uptrend for
Narrations of a Sector ETF Operator | Rotation to High Beta Read More »
June 22, 2025 The S&P 500 has been consolidating for two weeks. Prices remain above our neckline of 5786 (chart below) which keeps the most aggressive upside scenarios on the table from a technical perspective. 5504 remains our accumulation point on any deeper drawdown. While investors look for resolution from the S&P 500’s near-term consolidation,
Narrations of a Sector ETF Operator | The Waiting is the Hardest Part Read More »
June 15, 2025 Escalations in the Middle East on the heels of a bout of global trade realignment sets up a scenario straight out of an economics case study. Oil prices have risen (albeit from lows of the cycle, while equities in the very near-term have sold off along with US Treasuries at the long
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