Macro Mondays

September 1, 2025 Last week, we detailed the emergence of the Fed as a key player in the 2nd half of the year after Powell signaled intent to lower rates.  The stated goal is to support the softening employment picture.  Tariffs have added some cost pressure which factored into the Fed’s decision but haven’t registered […]

August 24, 2025 On Friday, we talked about the retracement of Growth shares playing out over the near-term and concluded with the point that the Fed would play a pivotal role in the 2nd half of the year.  We only needed to wait hours for Powell’s Jackson Hole speech to move the markets.  This time,

August 17, 2025 In last week’s missive, we noted the narrowing breadth of the bull market as the number of S&P 500 constituents trading above their 200-day moving average remains below 60% which is a lackluster reading with the Index recording several all-time high closes since the beginning of July. We’ve also noted that since

July 27, 2025 The Bull remains in control of the tape as July winds down.  A series of new all-time high prints for the S&P 500 (chart below) and the Nasdaq have printed.  Our oscillators studies (chart, panes 2 and 3) have hit highs for the past 12-months as well, registering an overbought condition on

July 20, 2025 As July ticks on with equities sitting near all-timer highs, there’s a temptation to worry.  The volatility of March and April has subsided with the VIX and MOVE indices for equity and bond volatility retracing to pre-decline levels (chart below).  The sharp rotation into min vol. stocks, bonds and ex-US equities has

July 13, 2025 As the S&P 500 consolidates just below fresh all-time highs, we are seeing some near-term buying in the Small Cap. space.  The chart below shows various Russell and S&P benchmark indices by size and their performance against the broad market R3K since the April 7th low for equities.  The Russell 2000 briefly