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Macro Mondays

Narrations of a Sector ETF Operator | It’s Getting (Over)Bought in Here! 

July 27, 2025 The Bull remains in control of the tape as July winds down.  A series of new all-time high prints for the S&P 500 (chart below) and the Nasdaq have printed.  Our oscillators studies (chart, panes 2 and 3) have hit highs for the past 12-months as well, registering an overbought condition on […]

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Narrations of a Sector ETF Operator | Are Investors Being Complacent?

July 20, 2025 As July ticks on with equities sitting near all-timer highs, there’s a temptation to worry.  The volatility of March and April has subsided with the VIX and MOVE indices for equity and bond volatility retracing to pre-decline levels (chart below).  The sharp rotation into min vol. stocks, bonds and ex-US equities has

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Narrations of a Sector ETF Operator | Can Small Cap. Stocks Sustain Their Near-term Outperformance?

July 13, 2025 As the S&P 500 consolidates just below fresh all-time highs, we are seeing some near-term buying in the Small Cap. space.  The chart below shows various Russell and S&P benchmark indices by size and their performance against the broad market R3K since the April 7th low for equities.  The Russell 2000 briefly

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Narrations of a Sector ETF Operator | Rotation to High Beta

July 6, 2025 The S&P 500 has broken out to new all-time highs in July, and we are finally seeing a change in the behavior of the average stock.  For most of 2024 a primary concern for the bull was the lack of upside participation at the stock level despite a top line uptrend for

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Narrations of a Sector ETF Operator | The Waiting is the Hardest Part

June 22, 2025 The S&P 500 has been consolidating for two weeks.  Prices remain above our neckline of 5786 (chart below) which keeps the most aggressive upside scenarios on the table from a technical perspective. 5504 remains our accumulation point on any deeper drawdown. While investors look for resolution from the S&P 500’s near-term consolidation,

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Narrations of a Sector ETF Operator | Rising Geo-Political Tensions a Test for the Bull Case

June 15, 2025 Escalations in the Middle East on the heels of a bout of global trade realignment sets up a scenario straight out of an economics case study.  Oil prices have risen (albeit from lows of the cycle, while equities in the very near-term have sold off along with US Treasuries at the long

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Narrations of a Sector ETF Operator | Taking the Bull by the Horns

June 8, 2025 The Bull must be feeling pretty confident with the S&P 500 closing last week above the 6000 level (chart below).  The buyer has kept its foot on the gas despite the index reaching overbought conditions in mid-May and the current price is <3% below the all-time high.  The usual gripes can still

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