Macro Mondays Archives - Page 5 of 11

Narrations of a Sector ETF Operator: Is a Dovish Fed Enough to Sustain the Bull?

Analysis, Macro Mondays, Narrations of a Sector ETF Operator / Patrick Torbert

November 30, 2025 November delivered one of the most dramatic sentiment swings of the year. U.S. equities bounced sharply off early-month lows, with the S&P 500 rallying ~3.5% over three sessions heading into Thanksgiving week and rate-cut odds for December climbing from <30% to over 80%. Treasury yields fell 3–4 bp across several sessions, and […]

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AI Rebound Hinges on Earnings, Cash Flow, and Fed Clarity as Post-Shutdown Data Points to an Uneven but Resilient Economy

Analysis, Macro Mondays, Narrations of a Sector ETF Operator / Patrick Torbert

November 23, 2025 The coming Thanksgiving week finds investors in an uneasy place: the AI trade has been shaken, but not broken, and the macro data emerging since the federal government reopened paints a picture of an economy that is cooling unevenly rather than rolling over. From a sector perspective, the key question is not

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How to Think About the Current Rotation: Should Investors Lean Into Low Volatility, Rotate Into Commodities, or Stay Long AI?

Macro Mondays, Narrations of a Sector ETF Operator / Patrick Torbert / AMD, GOOG, MAGS, META, MSFT, XLV

November 16, 2025 After one of the sharpest momentum unwinds of the year to start November, investors head into next week facing an unusually wide set of possible outcomes. AI leaders, retail favorites, most-shorted names, crypto, and quantum-computing plays were among the biggest laggards again, reinforcing the sense that the momentum trade may be in

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AMD, GOOG, MAGS, META, MSFT, XLV

S&P 500 Earnings Momentum Broadens, but AI and Mega-Caps Still Drive the Cycle

Macro Mondays, Narrations of a Sector ETF Operator / Patrick Torbert / AAPL, ALL, AMD, AVGO, DDOG, INTC, JPM, MS, MSFT, PLTR

November 10, 2025 The S&P 500 has spent the beginning of September pulling back from all-time highs. The selling comes against the backdrop of strong operating results from S&P 500 constituents in the most recent quarter. We’ve distilled takeaways from FactSet’s earnings insights to give you a snapshot of sector level earnings trends underpinning the

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AAPL, ALL, AMD, AVGO, DDOG, INTC, JPM, MS, MSFT, PLTR

Tech’s High-Wire Moment

Macro Mondays, Narrations of a Sector ETF Operator, XLK Technology / Patrick Torbert / AVGO, MU, NFLX, NVDA, PLTR, SMCI, TSMC, VGT, XLK

November 2, 2025 As the S&P 500 enters another pivotal earnings season, one sector holds the market’s fate in its hands: Technology. The Technology Select Sector SPDR (XLK)—up roughly 32% year-to-date and accounting for more than 32% of the S&P 500’s total market capitalization—has been the engine of U.S. equity performance. Yet as the earnings

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AVGO, MU, NFLX, NVDA, PLTR, SMCI, TSMC, VGT, XLK

Narrations of a Sector ETF Operator | FOMO vs. “Oh No!”

Macro Mondays / Patrick Torbert

October 19, 2025 Last week we got our first inklings of potential problems underneath the surface within the banking sector in 2025. Equities have faced some corrective price action in the past week and risks around trade, credit and government funding are starting to claim more attention. We wanted to use our weekly letter to

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Narrations of a Sector ETF Operator | Reassessing Risks to the AI trade After Friday’s Sell-off

Analysis, Macro Mondays / Patrick Torbert / AMZN, S&P 500, SOX Index, TSMC

October 12, 2025 U.S. equities finished sharply lower on Friday as investors reacted to a re-escalation in trade and technology tensions between Washington and Beijing. The S&P 500 (chart below) fell roughly 2.7%, the Nasdaq Composite dropped 3.5%, and the Dow Jones Industrial Average lost 879 points (-1.9%), erasing several weeks of gains. The sell-off

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AMZN, S&P 500, SOX Index, TSMC

Narrations of a Sector ETF Operator | Once Again, the Consumer is the Pivot

Macro Mondays, Narrations of a Sector ETF Operator / Patrick Torbert / DHI, NKE, TPR, XLY

October 5, 2025 Equities again sit at or near all-time highs on the major indices. A supportive Fed and continued interest in AI concepts have boosted equity prices and Technology shares in the near-term. However, market breadth has narrowed at the stock level despite the advance (chart below). The mega cap. leadership embedded within the

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DHI, NKE, TPR, XLY

Narrations of a Sector ETF Operator | The Rise of the Machines

Macro Mondays, Narrations of a Sector ETF Operator / Patrick Torbert / AMAT, AMZN, INTC, META, MSFT, MU, NVDA, ONTO, ORCL, PLTR, SYM, TSLA, VRT

September 28, 2025 September 2025 has been dominated by renewed focus on AI and automation, even as markets wrestle with tariff headlines and mixed Fed commentary. As investors contemplate the speculative merits of AI vs. its actual delivered results, we continue to explore the expanding AI econ-system. One thing we’ve noticed is that while many

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AMAT, AMZN, INTC, META, MSFT, MU, NVDA, ONTO, ORCL, PLTR, SYM, TSLA, VRT

Narrations of a Sector ETF Operator | The Direction of Interest Rates Remains Pivotal for Equities Moving Forward

Macro Mondays, Narrations of a Sector ETF Operator / Patrick Torbert

September 21, 2025 The past week was dominated by the Federal Reserve’s September policy meeting, which delivered a widely expected 25 bp rate cut and a dovish dot plot signaling another 50 bp of easing by year-end. Chair Powell characterized the move as a “risk management” cut in response to signs of labor market softening,

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