Consumer Staples November Outlook—Rising Rates and Bullish Sentiment have Left Staples Lagging, Now Oversold
Deeply oversold with rates backed up, we are betting on near-term reversal in November
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ETFsector.com Daily Trading Outlook, September 25, 2024
S&P Futures Little Changed: S&P futures are flat in Wednesday morning trading after US equities closed higher on Tuesday, with the S&P 500 hitting its 41st all-time high of the year. China-related stocks saw strong gains on the back of fresh stimulus measures, while chemicals, industrial metals, machinery, and select multinationals also performed well. Semiconductors
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Narrations of a Sector ETF Operator | Weekly Market Letter, September 22, 2024
We project the S&P 500 to near 6150 by year-end. Our trend-following model is giving off bullish signals.
Narrations of a Sector ETF Operator | Weekly Market Letter, September 22, 2024 Read More »
XLP Consumer Staples SPDR September Outlook—XLP had one of the weakest scores in our Elev8 Sector selection models and we start September with a short position
Weaker inflation and a bullish earnings season from the Tech. Sector have put the XLP in the back seat on performance while it also starts off September registering overbought conditions. This isn’t an attractive setup
XLP Consumer Staples SPDR July Outlook—Softer inflation has shifted investor focus towards discounting a more dovish Fed. going forward. XLP is less likely to outperform while that behavior persists
Weaker inflation and a fairly bullish earning season from the Tech. Sector have put the XLP in the back seat. Several o our model inputs have deteriorated for the sector since May, and it now scores as a zero-weight sector for July in our work
SPY June Outlook—mixed with seasonality a tactical negative historically against the backdrop of a longer-term bull market trend
Last month was more stalemate between Fed policy and Inflation gauges. Almost in the background, the equity markets continued higher. We are now in the summer of an election year which typically sees equity markets consolidate into November 5th. We will start the month positioned for rates to stay flat and for equities to grind sideways over the intermediate term while respecting the strongest longer-term outperformance trends in XLK and XLC.
XLP Consumer Staples SPDR June Outlook—Staples bottoming process relative to the broad market is still intact
We debut our Elev8 Sector Model with an OVERWEIGHT position in XLP of 1.98%