February 23, 2025 The bullish trend for US equities matured in 2024 and is showing signs of fatigue to begin 2025. We are seeing several negative momentum divergences across important market bellwethers from the Mag7 to Housing to the S&P 500 itself. US equities are losing momentum to the upside and investors are starting to […]
February 21, 2025 We wanted to change the usual cadence of our Factor Friday report this week to review longer-term trend in factor investing with an aim to give our readers more context for interpreting current factor behavior. We will be back with our regular format next week when we will be surveying our indicator
Factor Friday: Examining Longer-Term Factor Performance Trends Read More »
February 19, 2025 In mid-January, when we took our last chart-based tour around the globe, we noted that a brief reprieve for ex-US equities coincided with headwinds to US Mega Cap. Growth stocks and that international equities were acting similarly to the “average” stock in the US as proxied by the equal weight S&P 500
Worldwide Wednesday: EAFE Equities Outperforming to Start 2025 Read More »
Why are rates moving lower while commodities prices are moving higher? Our thought experiment leads us to a negative conclusion.
February 13, 2025 We are excited to introduce a new flavor of our “Thematic Thursday” cyclical, the Deep Dive, where we look through to the stocks and fundamental characteristics that are driving performance in the most notable thematic funds. MILN: A Standout Performer over the Past 6-Months We start our new feature with MILN, the
Thematic Thursday Report: Millennial Consumer Fund (MILN) Deep Dive Read More »
The S&P 500 continues to move sideways across its long-term uptrend channel (chart below). After hitting uptrend channel resistance, it looks like prices are consolidating sideways in a bid to correct the trend in time rather than price. The 200-day moving average, currently at 5665, is a good proxy for trend channel support and we’ve
Tactical Tuesday Report: Growth or Value Leadership, We Review our Indicators Read More »
February 10, 2025 The S&P 500 continues in a consolidation pattern that started in early December. The index made a marginal new high on January 23rd, but the buyer couldn’t sustain above that level for longer than a day. The move sets up a negative momentum divergence in the RSI and MACD oscillators (chart below,
Narrations of a Sector ETF Operator | The Consumer is the Pivot Read More »
COMMENTARY: The S&P500 fell slightly this week, down 24 basis points. The index produced meaningful gains through Thursday and gave most of it back during Friday’s session, after US consumer sentiment sank to a seven-month low in early February, undershooting forecasts. Also, inflation expectations jumped amid concerns about Trump’s tariff threats. Real Estate took the
Performance Summary: Week Ending February 7th, 2025 Read More »
S&P 500: Market Internals The S&P 500 rallied to marginal new all-time highs in January and start February consolidating near those highs. Below is our S&P 500 Market Internals chart which tracks the strength of the uptrend at the stock level. That chart is setting up a negative divergence at present. The middle panel shows
Factor Friday: S&P 500 Breadth Measures Flashing a Warning Sign, February 7, 2025 Read More »
COMMENTARY: The S&P500 fell this week. Sensitivity to AI related news pushed the markets down early in the week, followed by a slight mid-week recovery. Then, tariff talk, the aviation disaster, at the end of the week, collectively resulted in a drawdown of 1%. Energy was the worst-performing sector this week, falling 4.0%. Continued speculation
Performance Summary: Week Ending January 31st, 2025 Read More »
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