Equities finished the week with the Dow on a rampage (+1.51%) while the S&P 500 finished higher (+0.80%) while the Nasdaq consolidated its near-term gains off -0.01%. Futures are up to start June with the small cap. Russell 2000 projected to open +1.29% and the Nasdaq100 Emini pacing large caps up + 0.52% before the […]
Setting up for Success | ETFsector.com Daily Trading Outlook, June 3, 2024 Read More »
Last month was more stalemate between Fed policy and Inflation gauges. Almost in the background, the equity markets continued higher. We are now in the summer of an election year which typically sees equity markets consolidate into November 5th. We will start the month positioned for rates to stay flat and for equities to grind sideways over the intermediate term while respecting the strongest longer-term outperformance trends in XLK and XLC.
XLK outperformance has persisted as inflation was not a negative event in May. We look for the outperformance trend to continue at the sector level given the absence of material headwinds and investor recognition of long-term leadership. Our new Elev8 Sector Model debuts with XLK as an OVERWEIGHT allocation of 2.92% for June
The XLC has improved steadily since the advent of the bull market in early 2023. Upside participation is broadening out and rates have failed below cycle highs for the 2nd time over the intermediate term alleviating that concern. The Elev8 Sector Model recommends an OVERWEIGHT position in XLC vs. the S&P 500 of +3.22% our largest overweight allocation for June
Our new Elev8 sector selection process starts June with an overweight in XLB of 1.68% vs. the sector weight in the S&P 500. We are not quite as sanguine on XLB as that allocation suggests as we are naked the Energy sector in our model and hoping a modest overweight in XLB will hedge us
The XLF has improved steadily over the past 9 months. And after a bit of a stumble in May relative to the S&P 500 it looks to be in a very constructive position for June. Our Elev8 Sector Model debuts with an OVERWEIGHT Position in XLF vs. the benchmark S&P 500 of +1.10%
We are remaining long XLI as it is deeply oversold near-term and tactically attractive if we see profit taking from L/T winning sectors XLK and XLC. We also like it as a partial hedge to our short position in XLE. Our Elev8 Sector Model debuts with an OVERWEIGHT in XLI of 2.46%
We debut our Elev8 Sector Model with an OVERWEIGHT position in XLP of 1.98%
The XLV has continued to deteriorate and has been a large underweight in our process since the bull market started in early 2023. However, our work also suggests that oversold defensive shares can be a good tactical add to a portfolio and that’s what XLV shares are this month. Our Elev8 Sector Model debuts with an OVERWEIGHT position in XLV of + 1.02%
Our Elev8 Sector Model debuts recommending an OVERWEIGHT allocation to XLU of +1.52%
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