SPY September Outlook—Equities enter September on the cusp of new all-timer highs. A move above 5669 confirms the uptrend
We wonder how low rates can go if they spark a positive turn around in consumer fundamentals and lending
All ETF News
XLRE Real Estate Sector SPDR September Outlook—Bullish reversal looks set up to continue after a brief pause in August
At the stock level we are seeing broad improvement with a fairly high correlation. Standout stocks are few and far between, but we see clear bullish reversals in residential real estate names, Healthcare REITs and Retail REITs
XLU Utilities Sector SPDR September Outlook—Utilities look setup to continue their 6-month outperformance trend in September
We like Utilities as a hedge against potential downsides in Growth sections of the market. The bull trend has been strong, with the S&P 500 appreciating well above its long-term expected return in 2024. With the intrinsic uncertainty of Presidential Election season upon us we see Utilities as useful add to the portfolio
XLC Communication Services SPDR September Outlook—As Mega Cap. names have consolidated other industries have seen performance improve. We start September Overweight XLC
Investors have rotated away from Mega Cap. Growth over the past 3 months, but now leave many of the bull cycle’s favorite names in buyable positions
XLK Information Technology Sector SPDR September Outlook—We begin September long the XLK and we expect investors will eventually see this intermediate term consolidation as an accumulation opportunity
We do think there is potential for elevated volatility between now and the election, so we’ve kept our position modest this month to cover more areas of potential upside in the near term
XLF Financials SPDR Outlook—The Sector is showing strong performance, breadth and momentum characteristics and is top ranked in our Elev8 Model for September
The XLF has found its footing and now looks like one of the most attractive sectors within the US equity market from a technical perspective. Rotation into cyclicals due to expectations of policy easing in the 2nd half of 2024 has been a benefit and we expect it will continue to be in September
XLV Healthcare SPDR September Outlook—XLV registered more positive inputs in our model based on the broader outperformance at the industry level. That said we start September near benchmark weight in the XLV
We are near market weight in our XLV allocation for September. Model inputs have improved marginally, but the sustained consolidation in equity prices that typically catalyze performance for the sector have remained elusive
XLP Consumer Staples SPDR September Outlook—XLP had one of the weakest scores in our Elev8 Sector selection models and we start September with a short position
Weaker inflation and a bullish earnings season from the Tech. Sector have put the XLP in the back seat on performance while it also starts off September registering overbought conditions. This isn’t an attractive setup
XLY Consumer Discretionary Sector SPDR September Outlook—We are taking a cautious approach to XLY in September
XLY has potential to benefit from the change in Fed policy outlook. It has shown some technical improvement over the previous 3-months as well. However, the stock level picture is showing a tough environment for the average stock at present
XLI Industrials SPDR August Outlook—Industrials stocks continue to improve at a steady pace. We prefer XLI to XLB and XLE in our work
We are remaining long XLI on expectations that implementation of Dovish Policy, Geopolitical tailwinds and a broad array of business lines will insulate the sector from downside risks